Hi,

Welcome back! Every month I get some version of the same question: is the durables market weak or not?

August argues it's neither. It's splitting. Where businesses are investing, demand is holding. Where a household has to finance the purchase, it isn't. That gap matters more than any single print, because it means firm pricing and soft sell-through can show up in the same month, in the same store, two aisles apart. The planning takeaway is simple: set your posture by category this quarter, not by the market.

One place that category split shows up fastest is promo strategy. Our webinar on preparing for promo periods is available on demand if you're building that calendar now.

One more note: I'm speaking on a panel at HIRI's Home Improvement Insights Summit in Minneapolis next week, on September 29. If you'll be there, come find me. I always want to hear what you're seeing in your own categories.

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Durables Market Trends
Pricing Holds Firm as Durables Demand Splits

➔ Durables demand is bifurcating: Investment-linked categories – technology, logistics, automation, and equipment – are better positioned than housing-related and discretionary goods facing cautious consumers and high financing costs.

➔ Back-to-school discounting is more selective: Discount activity remains below prior peaks across most categories, while monitors stand out with August highs in both discount frequency and magnitude.

➔ Price growth broadens by category: August 2026 marks the first year where all tracked back-to-school categories (Monitors, Notebooks, Smartphones, Tablets, TVs, and Wearables) saw year-over-year growth in OpenBrand’s CPI-DG over the last 7 years.

➔ Energy risk remains a macro overhang: Improving Middle East output has limited oil-price pressure, but impaired Hormuz shipping and escalation risk keep freight, fuel, input costs, and global growth vulnerable.

SOURCE: OPENBRAND CPI AND MACROECONOMICS, AUG 2026

Monthly Category Briefs

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OPE: Ride-On Mower Draw & Close Rates by Retailer

Analysis by Adrienne Spear, Senior OPE Analyst 

Mower buyers rarely shop just one retailer. Traffic and conversion tell two different stories, and OpenBrand's MindShare Survey data, covering 4,775 category buyers from July 2025 through June 2026, shows how far apart those stories can be.

Draw rate is the share of all mower buyers who shopped a given retailer.

Close rate is the share of that retailer's shoppers who ultimately bought there.

Impact Summary

• Lowe's leads on traffic with a 34% draw rate, ahead of Home Depot at 30%. No other tracked retailer clears 10%

• Tractor Supply posts the highest close rate at 71%, converting its shoppers more efficiently than anyone else in the group

• Amazon matches Home Depot's 63% close rate on a much smaller 5% draw, pointing to highly intentional shoppers

• Walmart draws a similar amount of mower shoppers as Tractor Supply, but converts far fewer at 57.6%

• Ace Hardware trails on both measures at a 3% draw and 52% close, losing nearly half its shoppers to competing outlets

Click the image to see infographic in full size

SOURCE: OUTDOOR POWER EQUIPMENT, OPENBRAND TOTAL MARKET INSIGHTS

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Consumer Electronics: iPhone Duo Makes Market Splash

Analysis by Scott Peterson, Smartphones Analyst

Apple entered launch season with brand consideration near 51%, below its recent 57% peak and about 10 points ahead of Samsung, leaving room for the typical post-launch lift. Apple's new lineup is its broadest and most ambitious premium strategy to date: the iPhone 18 Pro at $1,199, the iPhone 18 Pro Max at $1,299, and the $1,999 iPhone Duo, Apple's first foldable. The Duo is the strategic centerpiece, pushing iPhone into new price territory and broadening the brand's role from smartphone to productivity platform.

What Stands Out

• The Duo opens from a 5.4" outer display into a 7.6" inner Super Retina XDR screen, placing it between a conventional smartphone and a small tablet
• Its value proposition rests on software as much as hardware: Split View runs two applications side by side, rear-camera selfies preview on the outer display, and USB-C Apple Pencil support arrives later this year
• Titanium build with the same A20 Pro chip as the Pro models, and up to 31 hours of video playback on the inner display, 44 hours on the outer
• Duo preorders open Oct. 16 for an Oct. 23 launch, a month behind the Pro models
• No carrier discount has been detailed for the Duo yet, though Apple lists trade-in credits up to $885, signaling trade-in value will be the main tool for softening the entry price

What to watch: Whether Apple's ecosystem and application experience can make foldables relevant beyond early adopters. If the Duo succeeds, Apple gains a growth tier above the Pro Max and a stronger bridge between iPhone and iPad. If adoption stays limited, the Pro models still provide a more conventional path to higher average selling prices.

SOURCE: SMARTPHONES, OPENBRAND TOTAL MARKET INSIGHTS

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Major Appliances: Best Closer Gets the Fewest Shoppers 

Analysis by Bryce Tecson, Major Appliance Analyst 

1. Best Buy converts best and draws least among major retailers. Across eight top appliance categories over the last 12 months, Best Buy posted the highest or near-highest close rate in its category, converting roughly two-thirds or more of the shoppers it draws, while drawing less than half the traffic of Lowe's or Home Depot. The constraint at this door is traffic, not execution.

2. Promotional saturation has hit its ceiling. Review of the same eight categories suggests heavy promotion has become table stakes rather than a differentiator: private label ran 80-98% of assortment on deal in several categories, while national brands ran 72-81% in others. When a full line is always on sale, depth stops differentiating and assortment and newness become the levers.

3. The smallest appliance door carries the richest mix. Best Buy's unit mix ran above the category price mix in seven of the eight categories reviewed, often by a wide margin: 19% of its dishwasher units sold above $1,000 against 9.9% category-wide, 41% of cooktops above $1,250 against 21%, and 72% of wall ovens above $2,000 against 54%. A small-share account can still be a premium-share account.

What to watch: Whirlpool and Electrolux have both signaled a move toward a more premium mix, with Whirlpool pairing a 10%+ price increase with shortened promotional windows and Electrolux having exited entry price points to concentrate on core-plus and premium. Electrolux's new North American joint ventures with Midea point to more product innovation ahead. Watch whether those premium ambitions show up as assortment at the account already selling the richest mix.

SOURCE: MAJOR APPLIANCES, OPENBRAND TOTAL MARKET INSIGHTS

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Home Improvement: Home Centers Own the Spring

Analysis by Stacie Hughes, Marketing Analyst

We tracked 80+ Home Improvement products month over month. What moved says a lot about how homeowners are spending right now.

1. A 10-point swing. Home Depot and Lowe's grew from 58% to 68% of Home Improvement units between September and August, and now capture 89% of dollars. Most of the shifts happened in a single month, April to May.

2. National brands beat store brands. At both home centers, Kohler and Delta gained share while store brands gave ground. At Home Depot, Delta passed Glacier Bay as the #1 brand by units.

3. Volume, not price. Average selling prices at both home centers held steady all year. Shoppers didn't trade down. They changed where they shopped.

What to Watch: As spring projects wind down and holiday shopping ramps up, can mass and online retailers win back the volume? We'll be discussing what's driving the shift at HIRI next week. 

SOURCE: OPENBRAND MARKETSHARE, COMPOSITE OF TRACKED HOME IMPROVEMENT CATEGORIES - 80+ PRODUCTS, SEPT 2025 – AUG 2026.

Webinar Recording

Prepping for Promos: A Pricing & Promotion Playbook

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