Ralph McLaughlin

In May, price growth for consumer durable goods remained nearly flat with a month-over-month (MoM) increase of +0.02%. This is down from a revised monthly +0.43% increase in April. Across our four product groups, three showed month-over-month deceleration, with recreation showing the only price growth uptick. May showcased Memorial Day Weekend promotions, which helped contribute to the month-over-month flatness.

Memorial Day continues to be an important promotional event for the durable goods sector, but the nature of this promotion has evolved considerably. In 2026, discount activity rebounded sharply compared to recent years, with a discount frequency of 29.9% during Memorial Day Weekend compared with 24.2% during the remainder of May. Memorial Day Weekend 2026 saw the most aggressive promotional activity since 2022, with both the highest discount frequency and the widest gap between Memorial Day Weekend promotional activity relative to the rest of May.

Promotions across the Home Improvement and Communication groups were notably aggressive in May 2026. Memorial Day Weekend 2026 saw retailers lean heavily on promotions across several durable goods categories, though discount activity varied significantly by sector. Home Improvement discount frequency increased sharply, climbing from 13.4% to 20.3%. Within the Home Improvement sector, Door Locks, Kitchen Faucets, and Log Splitters in particular saw a dramatic increase in discount frequency. Discount frequency jumped to some of the highest levels observed during the past two years notably for Kitchen Faucets and Log Splitters.

Communications products saw one of the largest promotional increases in May 2026, with discount frequency rising to 26.3% over Memorial Day Weekend from 16% in the rest of the month. More broadly, smartphones, wearables, and printers all posted notable gains in discount frequency. For wearables, the May 2026 increase in promotional activity was driven by broader promotional coverage from major brands, as well as inventory-clearing efforts ahead of upcoming product launches. Looking ahead, the growing availability of affordable, feature-rich devices could keep promotional pressure elevated as brands compete to defend market share.

For smartphones, the May 2026 increase in promotional activity reflected stronger year-over-year incentives from major brands along with broader discounting across product lines, plus aggressive carrier-led launch offers. Smartphones, in particular, stood out not only in May 2026 but also at the end of 2025.

• Key CPI Takeaways for May 2026 & Macroeconomic Outlook
• Product Group Highlights
  • Appliances
  • Communication
  • Home Improvement
  • Recreation
• CPI 2026 Forecast: Macroeconomic Summary
• Methodology

Overall OpenBrand Consumer Price Index Movement: The OpenBrand CPI of Durable Goods recorded a +0.02% monthly change in May, notching the twenty-third consecutive month-over-month increase.  All product groups except Recreation experienced price declines this month.  

Discount Trends: May brought mixed changes in discount activity to the durable goods sector, with magnitude month-over-month rising to 19.9% of all durable goods from 19.8% in the month prior.  The typical frequency decreased to 24.3%, down from 25.7% the month prior. 

Product Group Price Trends:  All product groups experienced a slowdown in the rate of growth from the month prior, with prices of all groups except Recreation declining month-over-month.  The group summary is as follows:

• Appliance Group (-0.04%)  
• Communication Group (-0.35%)  
• Home Improvement Group (-0.33%)  
• Recreation Group (+0.33%) 

CPI: Appliances

Prices for appliances decreased on a month-over-month basis in May to -0.04%, falling from a revised +0.11% in the month prior. The frequency and magnitude of discounts both fell in May. Frequency decreased more than 3 percentage points from 40.9% to 37.8%, while magnitude fell slightly from 17.4% to 17.3% from April to May. The decrease in both frequency and magnitude of discounts would lead us to expect an increase in prices, however, since prices of appliances decreased in May, it could be that shelf prices were set higher.

CPI: Communication

Prices of communication devices, including phones, tablets, computers, and printers, fell on a month-over-month basis to -0.35%, down from a revised +0.44% the month prior. Both discount frequency and discount magnitude increased this month, from 15.8% to 16.0%, and 20.1% to 20.5% respectively. The deceleration in price growth was at least partially driven by the increase in both frequency & magnitude of discounts.

CPI: Home Improvement

Prices for home improvement goods experienced a deceleration in growth this month, decreasing to -0.33% on a month-over-month seasonally-adjusted basis in May, falling from a revised +0.11% in the month prior, showing the first monthly decrease in the last 26 months. The deceleration in price growth was at least partially driven by the increase in the typical discount frequency.

CPI: Recreation

The rate of price growth of recreational products, including TVs, headphones, and speaker systems, experienced deceleration this month, decreasing to +0.33% on a month-over-month seasonally-adjusted basis in May, down from a revised +0.89% in April. The deceleration in prices was at least partially driven by the increase in the typical discount magnitude, up from 24.6% in April to 24.9% in May.

The macroeconomic backdrop heading into the second half of 2026 is layered, mixed bag for the durable goods sector.

Energy costs remain above pre-conflict levels, even as Brent Crude fell in May following a late-April peak tied to the ongoing Middle East conflict. The initial shock from the sharp run-up in oil prices that began in earnest in late February has not yet fully worked its way through the production and transportation pipeline, meaning the full drag on input costs for durable goods manufacturers is still materializing. That’s an important caveat for anyone interpreting the first quarter’s relative resilience as a signal of sustained strength.

Real GDP growth is expected to continue building on gains into the second quarter of 2026, though the picture is more complicated than the headline suggests. The Q1 rebound was supported in part by a normalization of government spending following the prior quarter’s shutdown. In other words, some of the improvement was a catch-up effect, not a reflection of organic momentum. Consumer spending and business investment held up, but the full weight of the energy price shock hasn’t landed yet. For durable goods categories, this creates a demand environment that is fragile at the edges, where discretionary and big-ticket purchases are particularly exposed as household budgets increasingly absorb elevated energy costs.

The interest rate environment offers little relief. The 10-year Treasury yield is expected to hold in the 4.25 – 4.30% range through the year-end, keeping long-term borrowing costs elevated. For housing-related durable goods, such as appliances, home improvement materials, and related categories, the combination of high financing costs and constrained affordability continues to cap demand potential. The 30-year mortgage rate reached 6.44% in May, and homebuilders are simultaneously contending with rising material costs tied to tariffs. That’s a double squeeze that shows no sign of easing meaningfully in the near term.

The labor market is not showing signs of collapse. Job growth increased for a third straight month in May with a surprising gain of 172,000, driving the three month total to well over 500,000. On the other hand, consumer sentiment fell by 14.2% from May 2025 to May 2026, and growth in Personal Consumer Expenditures softened in April. While falling consumer sentiment does not bode well for expectations of consumer durables consumption, these are not crisis signals: the link between consumer sentiment and consumer behaviors appears to have been diverging sharply over the past two years.

Retail Sales, however, continue to climb, with year-over-year growth reaching levels not seen since early 2023, but it’s worth noting that after controlling for inflation, the growth was nominally small. It tells us that even in an environment of cooling sentiment and rising caution, consumers are still spending, but they’re just being more selective about it.

The housing market continues to act as a structural constraint on housing-sensitive durable goods demand. Elevated mortgage rates have kept existing-home supply limited, as many current homeowners remain locked into sub-market rates they are understandably reluctant to give up. That inventory squeeze caps the pipeline of home sales that typically drive demand for appliances, flooring, fixtures, and related categories.

Looking ahead, the sector is caught between resilient underlying demand and a set of persistent, compounding headwinds. The most hopeful development is the recent easing in oil prices, but it’s worth keeping in perspective. Prices are still well above where they were before the current Middle East conflict began, and the impact of elevated energy costs is still rippling through supply chains. With housing affordability, labor market momentum, and borrowing costs all pointing in the same cautious direction, the operating environment for durable goods is likely to remain uneven in the second half of 2026. The consumer isn’t pulling back entirely, but they’re paying closer attention to every dollar spent.

Note: This summary is based on data available as of early June 2026 and may be subject to revisions in future releases. Special thanks to Lauren Finck and Scott Peterson for their contributions to this month’s report.

For questions about the report, please contact Ralph McLaughlin at ralph@openbrand.com 

For press inquiries, please contact press@openbrand.com 

The OpenBrand CPI of Durable Goods is constructed using a data-driven methodology that ensures accuracy, timeliness, and transparency in measuring price trends for both short and long-lasting consumer products. The methodology consists of the following key components:

Data Collection

• Real-Time Price Tracking: Prices are sourced daily from online marketplaces, retail websites, and brick-and-mortar store listings.
• Retailer & Manufacturer Data: Aggregates pricing information from major retailers, direct-to-consumer brands, and wholesale suppliers into broader consumer categories.
• Temporal Coverage: Captures price variations over time, including daily discounts and price promotions

Product Selection & Tracking

• Durable and Goods Focus: The index includes products with an expected lifespan of three years or more, such as home appliances, consumer electronics, and tools.
• Brand & Model Tracking: Individual brands and models are monitored to reflect pricing shifts within competitive product segments, including both permanent changes in listing price as well as temporary promotional pricing.

Price Calculation, Adjustments, and Weighting

• Price Calculation: Tracks month-over-month and year-over-year price movements to measure price stability in the marketplace and take into account both longer-term changes in pricing (such as changes in manufacturer’s suggested retail price) as well as more short-term changes in pricing, such as promotional discounts and sales prices. 
• SKU-Removal Instead of Hedonic Adjustments: When a product (or SKU) becomes unavailable in the BLS goods basket, the BLS implements a SKU-replacement procedure whereby the next most similar product is used in its place, and a quality (hedonic) adjustment procedure is performed to get closer to an apples-to-apples price comparison. Since OpenBrand has data on nearly 100% of the SKUs pricing history in a given product category, we can simply remove that SKU from the basket and rely on price changes of the remaining SKUs in that basket. This eliminates the need for hedonic adjustment in the OpenBrand CPI basket.
• Weighting and Aggregation Method: A weighted geometric mean formula is used to minimize volatility and improve stability in price trend analysis at both the product grouping and category level. Instead of using sales-volume weights when aggregating the index, we take an alternative approach by using persistence-based weights for aggregation. Instead of more frequently purchased items getting more weight in the BLS’ CPI calculation, OpenBrand takes a more novel approach by weighting items with a more established price history in the market more heavily in our CPI calculation than items with a less established history.

Reporting & Updates

• High-Frequency Updates: Published freely on a monthly basis, with a subscription option for daily summaries across categories, sub-categories, and individual products.
• Comparative Benchmarks: We aggregate pricing as analogously as possible to traditional BLS CPI measures for benchmarking purposes.
• Transparency & Accessibility: Provides both open and paid data access for journalists, researchers, businesses, and policymakers.

By leveraging real-time data and advanced statistical techniques, the OpenBrand CPI offers an accurate and dynamic measure of pricing trends, helping businesses and consumers make informed decisions in an evolving economic landscape.

In April, price growth for consumer durable goods accelerated with a month-over-month (MoM) increase of +0.42%. This is up from a revised monthly +0.38% increase in March. Across our four product groups, three showed month-over-month acceleration, with home improvement showing the only price growth slowdown. While the appliance group is amongst the three that showed an acceleration in price growth month-over-month, the longer run trend has been downwards. In this month’s OpenBrand CPI-DG report, we take a deeper look at what (and who) has been driving this trend.

Appliance prices have generally trended downward in recent years due to globalized manufacturing, strong retail competition, and production efficiencies that have limited pricing power. More recently, despite rising oil prices, appliance prices have shown little increase as manufacturers and retailers absorb higher costs or offset them through promotions and supply chain adjustments. In this release of the OpenBrand CPI of Durable Goods, we take a deeper dive into appliance price movements.

Much of this downward trend has been driven by smaller appliances—such as air purifiers, countertop cooking products, and vacuums—where rapid innovation, lower price points, and intense competition have put consistent downward pressure on prices. In contrast, price movements among larger appliances have been more mixed: refrigerators have generally trended flat to slightly downward, while categories like dishwashers and ranges have seen more upward pressure, reflecting differences in cost structures, feature upgrades, and pricing dynamics across major appliance segments.

While larger appliances have not experienced the same degree of price easing as smaller appliances, promotional activity suggests the story is more nuanced. As shown in the chart below, LG Electronics stands out with significantly higher promotional activity compared to the same period last year, indicating that even in categories with more stable or rising price trends, consumers can still find meaningful deals through increased discounting.

• Key CPI Takeaways for April 2026 & Macroeconomic Outlook
• Product Group Highlights
  • Appliances
  • Communication
  • Home Improvement
  • Recreation
• CPI 2026 Forecast: Macroeconomic Summary
• Methodology

Overall OpenBrand Consumer Price Index Movement: The OpenBrand CPI of Durable Goods recorded a +0.42% monthly change in April, notching the twenty-second consecutive month-over-month increase and 24th of the last 25th months. All product groups experienced price growth this month.  

Discount Trends: April brought mixed changes in discount activity to the durable goods sector, with magnitude month-over-month falling to 19.1% of all durable goods from 19.3% in the month prior.  The typical frequency increased to 25.7%, up from 25.2% the month prior. 

Product Group Price Trends:  Prices of all groups climbed month-over-month, while all product groups except Home Improvement experienced a slowdown in the rate of growth from the month prior.  The group summary is as follows:

• Appliance Group (+0.08%)  
• Communication Group (+0.50%)  
• Home Improvement Group (+0.14%)  
• Recreation Group (+0.87%) 

CPI: Appliances

Prices for appliances increased on a month-over-month basis in April to +0.08%, rising from a revised -0.01% in the month prior. The positive price growth was at least partially driven by the typical discount magnitude decreasing to 17.0% from 17.2%, while the frequency of discounts increased to 41.3% from 41.1% the month prior. The discount frequency has been trending upwards for numerous months for the appliance group, beginning in December 2025 and continuing into 2026.

CPI: Communication

Prices of communication devices, including phones, tablets, computers, and printers, rose on a month-over-month basis to +0.50%, up from a revised +0.33% the month prior. Discount frequency decreased from 15.2% to 14.7%, while magnitude remained unchanged at 19.3% from March to April. The acceleration in price growth was at least partially driven by the decrease in frequency of discounts.

CPI: Home Improvement

Prices for home improvement goods experienced a deceleration in growth this month, decreasing to +0.14% on a month-over-month seasonally-adjusted basis in April, falling from a revised +0.44% in the month prior, showing 55 consecutive month-over-month flat or monthly increases. The deceleration in price growth was at least partially driven by the increase in the typical discount frequency (up almost 2 percentage points from last month).

CPI: Recreation

The rate of price growth of recreational products, including TVs, headphones, and speaker systems, experienced acceleration this month, increasing to +0.87% on a month-over-month seasonally-adjusted basis in April, up from a revised +0.67% in March. Both discount magnitude (from 23.7% in March to 23.8% in April) and discount frequency (from 31.7% in March to 32.0% in April) grew slightly this month, but prices for the recreation group also grew. Given this price growth in the face of both a higher discount magnitude and an increase in frequency of discounts, it is most likely that shelf prices for recreation products were set higher in April.

As of May 2026, the outlook for the U.S. durable goods sector is mixed, shaped by both cost pressures and resilient consumer activity.  Key demand indicators are showing signs of strength:  Retail Sales and Consumer Confidence are both on the rise in 2026. Personal Consumer Expenditures are up by $195.4 billion as of March 2026.

A sharp rise in global energy prices, driven largely by disruptions in the Middle East and constrained flows through the Strait of Hormuz, however, has significantly increased production, transportation, and input costs. Oil benchmarks such as Brent Crude are now projected to average around $105 per barrel in the second quarter, a dramatic upward revision that is feeding into broader inflation.

For durable goods manufacturers, this translates into sustained cost pressure across materials like steel, plastics, and electronic components, as well as higher logistics expenses. As a result, pricing flexibility remains limited, keeping appliance and other durable goods prices elevated despite promotional activity.

At the same time, monetary policy has turned more restrictive, adding another layer of pressure to interest-rate-sensitive purchases.  The Federal Open Market Committee is now expected to delay rate cuts until December 2026.  This shift is already weighing on demand: real GDP growth is decreasing in 2026.  For the durable goods sector this environment suggests increased reliance on discounting to stimulate sales.

Labor market conditions are also softening, further complicating the outlook.  The hiring rate continues to fall, currently reported at 3.1%.  Large layoffs are not currently happening, but nor are companies increasing their hiring.  Slower income growth and rising uncertainty are likely to dampen consumer confidence, particularly for discretionary durable goods purchases.  For manufacturers and retailers of durable goods, this combination of cost inflation and weakening demand creates a difficult balancing act between maintaining margins and preserving market share.

Looking ahead, persistently high oil prices could further erode growth and push inflation higher, potentially delaying monetary easing even longer. Additional geopolitical escalation or damage to key energy infrastructure could amplify these effects.  Until more relief occurs – such as what is happening with keeping tariffs below the maximum rate – then, the durable goods sector is likely to operate in a constrained environment defined by elevated costs, cautious consumers, and limited policy support.

Note: This summary is based on data available as of early May 2026 and may be subject to revisions in future releases. Special thanks to Jordan Carter, Lauren Finck, and Bryce Tecson for their contributions to this month’s report.

For questions about the report, please contact Ralph McLaughlin at ralph@openbrand.com 

For press inquiries, please contact press@openbrand.com 

The OpenBrand CPI of Durable Goods is constructed using a data-driven methodology that ensures accuracy, timeliness, and transparency in measuring price trends for both short and long-lasting consumer products. The methodology consists of the following key components:

Data Collection

• Real-Time Price Tracking: Prices are sourced daily from online marketplaces, retail websites, and brick-and-mortar store listings.
• Retailer & Manufacturer Data: Aggregates pricing information from major retailers, direct-to-consumer brands, and wholesale suppliers into broader consumer categories.
• Temporal Coverage: Captures price variations over time, including daily discounts and price promotions

Product Selection & Tracking

• Durable and Goods Focus: The index includes products with an expected lifespan of three years or more, such as home appliances, consumer electronics, and tools.
• Brand & Model Tracking: Individual brands and models are monitored to reflect pricing shifts within competitive product segments, including both permanent changes in listing price as well as temporary promotional pricing.

Price Calculation, Adjustments, and Weighting

• Price Calculation: Tracks month-over-month and year-over-year price movements to measure price stability in the marketplace and take into account both longer-term changes in pricing (such as changes in manufacturer’s suggested retail price) as well as more short-term changes in pricing, such as promotional discounts and sales prices. 
• SKU-Removal Instead of Hedonic Adjustments: When a product (or SKU) becomes unavailable in the BLS goods basket, the BLS implements a SKU-replacement procedure whereby the next most similar product is used in its place, and a quality (hedonic) adjustment procedure is performed to get closer to an apples-to-apples price comparison. Since OpenBrand has data on nearly 100% of the SKUs pricing history in a given product category, we can simply remove that SKU from the basket and rely on price changes of the remaining SKUs in that basket. This eliminates the need for hedonic adjustment in the OpenBrand CPI basket.
• Weighting and Aggregation Method: A weighted geometric mean formula is used to minimize volatility and improve stability in price trend analysis at both the product grouping and category level. Instead of using sales-volume weights when aggregating the index, we take an alternative approach by using persistence-based weights for aggregation. Instead of more frequently purchased items getting more weight in the BLS’ CPI calculation, OpenBrand takes a more novel approach by weighting items with a more established price history in the market more heavily in our CPI calculation than items with a less established history.

Reporting & Updates

• High-Frequency Updates: Published freely on a monthly basis, with a subscription option for daily summaries across categories, sub-categories, and individual products.
• Comparative Benchmarks: We aggregate pricing as analogously as possible to traditional BLS CPI measures for benchmarking purposes.
• Transparency & Accessibility: Provides both open and paid data access for journalists, researchers, businesses, and policymakers.

By leveraging real-time data and advanced statistical techniques, the OpenBrand CPI offers an accurate and dynamic measure of pricing trends, helping businesses and consumers make informed decisions in an evolving economic landscape.

In March, price growth for consumer durable goods accelerated after a slight slowdown in February, with a month-over-month (MoM) increase of +0.43%. This is up from a revised monthly +0.37% increase in the month prior. Across our four product groups, all showed month-over-month acceleration, with the appliance group continuing to show moderate price declines. While there has been some speculation that inflation would accelerate much faster in March due to spiking oil prices, some of the muted rise could have been due to a barrage of discounting events in the last week of April, led by Amazon.

During the Spring 2026 discounting period, BestBuy.com and Walmart.com were leading the pack on markdowns in durable goods. BestBuy.com’s promotions climbed just above 41%, giving it the broadest discounting stance among the major retailers tracked, with Walmart.com close behind at roughly 24%. Amazon.com followed with discounts near 37%, while Target.com and HomeDepot.com trailed at about 20% and just under 10%, respectively. For shoppers, the Spring 2026 landscape meant the most aggressive deals were concentrated at BestBuy.com, with Walmart.com also competing strongly on price.

The more interesting story, however, is how far each merchant moved away from its “normal” discounting pattern during the Spring 2026 discounting period. Target.com shows the most pronounced shift, with discounts roughly doubling from 7.5% in early March to about 20% in that discount window—a clear sign of a late‑month promotional push. Walmart.com also meaningfully increased promotions, stepping up from roughly 21% to about 24%, whereas Amazon.com and BestBuy.com layered in only modest additional discounting and HomeDepot.com actually eased back from its early‑March levels. In absolute terms, BestBuy.com was the standout discounter, but in relative terms, Target.com’s surge in promotional intensity marks it as the retailer that leaned hardest into deals as March drew to a close.

• Key CPI Takeaways for March 2026 & Macroeconomic Outlook
• Product Group Highlights
  • Appliances
  • Communication
  • Home Improvement
  • Recreation
• CPI 2026 Forecast: Macroeconomic Summary
• Methodology

Overall OpenBrand Consumer Price Index Movement: The OpenBrand CPI of Durable Goods recorded a +0.43% monthly change in March, notching the sixteenth consecutive month-over-month increase and 21st of the last 22nd months. There was a decent increase in price growth this month. This increase is within a range we typically see when going into March from February.

Discount Trends: March brought mixed changes in discount activity to the durable goods sector, with frequencies month-over-month falling to 19.0% of all durable goods from 19.3% in the month prior. The typical magnitude increased to 25.1%, up from 23.0% the month prior.

Product Group Price Trends:

All product groups experienced an uptick in the rate of growth from the month prior, with prices of all groups except Appliances climbing month-over-month.  The group summary is as follows:

• Appliance Group (-0.04%)  
• Communication Group (+0.59%)  
• Home Improvement Group (+0.67%)  
• Recreation Group (+0.77%)  

CPI: Appliances

Prices for appliances increased on a month-over-month basis in March to -0.04%, rising from a revised -0.11% in the month prior. The positive price growth was at least partially driven by the typical discount magnitude decreasing to 17.0% from 17.9%, while the frequency of discounts increased over 4.5 percentage points to 42.2% from 37.6% the month prior. This is the largest increase in discount frequency month-over-month when looking at the past 13 Marches, which is four percentage points higher than its last peak in month-over-month discount frequency growth, for the Appliance group. This large increase in discount frequency could be attributed to tariffs currently making less of an impact on pricing, allowing both manufacturers and retailers to pass along these savings to consumers.

CPI: Communication

Prices of communication devices, including phones, tablets, computers, and printers, rose on a month-over-month basis to +0.59%, up from a revised -0.12% the month prior. The frequency and magnitude of discounts both grew in March. Frequency increased from 14.5% to 15.1%, while magnitude grew from 19.0% to 19.3% from February to March. The increase in both frequency and magnitude of discounts would lead us to expect a decrease in prices, however, since prices of communication devices increased in March, it could be that shelf prices were set higher.

CPI: Home Improvement

Prices for home improvement goods experienced a deceleration in growth this month, increasing to +0.67% on a month-over-month seasonally-adjusted basis in March, growing from a revised +0.51% in the month prior, showing 36 consecutive month-over-month flat or monthly increases. The acceleration in price growth was at least partially driven by the decrease in both the typical discount frequency (10.6% from 10.7% the month prior) and the typical magnitude of discounts (16.1% from 16.4% the month prior).

CPI: Recreation

The rate of price growth of recreational products, including TVs, headphones, and speaker systems, experienced acceleration this month, increasing to +0.77% on a month-over-month seasonally-adjusted basis in March, up from a revised +0.74% in February. Some of this increase in the pace of price growth is at least partially due to a slight decrease in the average magnitude of discounts – down to 23.8% from 24.0%.

The frequency of discounts experienced an uncharacteristically high increase for March– up sharply to 32.3% in March from 29.3% in February (increasing by 3 percentage points). With this large increase in discount frequency, we would expect prices to fall for recreation products. Since prices rose this month, it is most likely that shelf prices for recreation products were set higher.

As of April 2026, the U.S. macroeconomic backdrop reflects a transition from a disinflationary environment toward a more uncertain, shock-driven phase. Entering the year, underlying inflation—particularly in core goods—had been moderating, supported by easing supply chains, softer demand for consumer durables, and normalization in categories like appliances, vehicles, and furnishings. This trend pointed toward stable or even modestly declining prices for many durable goods, especially as retailers continued to rely on discounting to stimulate demand.

However, the escalation of the military conflict involving Iran has introduced a meaningful upside risk to inflation through energy markets. Oil prices have risen sharply amid concerns about disruptions to global supply, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles a significant share of global energy flows. Recent price spikes—pushing crude oil toward or above $100 per barrel—are already feeding into higher gasoline and transportation costs, with broader pass-through effects expected across goods categories.

The impact on durable goods prices is likely to be indirect but material. Higher energy costs raise input prices for manufacturing, shipping, and logistics, which can slow or reverse the recent disinflation in goods. At the same time, there is typically a lagged demand effect: while consumers initially absorb higher fuel costs, real consumption tends to weaken in subsequent months, putting downward pressure on discretionary categories. This creates a mixed environment where cost pressures push prices up even as weakening demand limits pricing power.

From a macro perspective, this dynamic introduces a mild stagflationary risk. Elevated energy prices are expected to lift headline inflation in the near term—potentially by several tenths of a percentage point—while also weighing on GDP growth and household spending. The Federal Reserve is therefore likely to face a policy tradeoff, as tightening policy to combat energy-driven inflation could further dampen growth, while easing risks allowing inflation expectations to reaccelerate.

Overall, the outlook for price growth in 2026 has shifted from a steady moderation to a more uneven path. Durable goods prices are likely to remain relatively subdued compared to recent years but may stabilize or rise modestly as energy costs filter through supply chains. The key determinant going forward will be the duration of the conflict and whether energy prices remain elevated or begin to normalize later in the year.

Note: This summary is based on data available as of early April 2025 and may be subject to revisions in future releases.

For questions about the report, please contact Ralph McLaughlin at ralph@openbrand.com 

For press inquiries, please contact press@openbrand.com 

Special Note on Methodology Update — OpenBrand Consumer Price Index

Change to the OpenBrand CPI of Durable Goods

Beginning with this release, personal care products will no longer be included in the OpenBrand Consumer Price Index (CPI monthly report. February was the final month in which personal care categories are incorporated into the headline index.

This methodological update reflects a strategic refinement of the OpenBrand CPI’s core objective: to measure price and discount trends exclusively within the consumer durable goods sector. While personal care products provide valuable insight into broader retail pricing dynamics, their pricing behavior and promotional cycles differ meaningfully from those of durable goods. Removing these categories will enhance the precision and interpretability of the index as a focused measure of durable goods inflation and discounting activity.

To preserve historical continuity and analytical comparability, all future releases of the OpenBrand CPI and the OpenBrand CPI NowCast will include back-calculated index values with personal care products removed. This revised historical series will allow users to evaluate long-term trends on a consistent methodological basis and ensure that month-over-month and year-over-year comparisons remain accurate.

This refinement strengthens the OpenBrand CPI’s role as a high-frequency, data-driven indicator of pricing power, discount intensity, and inflation trends across consumer durable goods. We believe this update will improve clarity for policymakers, industry stakeholders, investors, and media users who rely on the index for timely insight into the durable goods marketplace.

Adding Seasonal Adjustment

We now seasonally adjust our Consumer Price Index of Durable so that month-to-month changes are easier to interpret. Seasonal adjustment removes the predictable price patterns that tend to show up at the same time each year, such as holiday promotions, end-of-season markdowns, model changeovers, and other recurring retail cycles. This allows the index to better reflect underlying price movement rather than normal seasonal swings.

This matters especially for durablel goods, where pricing can be heavily influenced by promotions and product timing throughout the year. By seasonally adjusting the index, we can provide a clearer read on inflation trends and make comparisons across months more meaningful for clients and other users of the data.

We perform the adjustment itself using the U.S. Census Bureau’s X-13 seasonal adjustment method, a widely used statistical approach for monthly economic data. This procedure estimates and removes recurring seasonal patterns from the raw index while preserving the underlying trend and irregular month-to-month movements. We then calculate monthly changes from the seasonally adjusted index, which produces a cleaner measure of inflation momentum than using the unadjusted series alone.

Methodological Notes

The OpenBrand CPI of Durable Goods is constructed using a data-driven methodology that ensures accuracy, timeliness, and transparency in measuring price trends for both short and long-lasting consumer products. The methodology consists of the following key components:

Data Collection

• Real-Time Price Tracking: Prices are sourced daily from online marketplaces, retail websites, and brick-and-mortar store listings.
• Retailer & Manufacturer Data: Aggregates pricing information from major retailers, direct-to-consumer brands, and wholesale suppliers into broader consumer categories.
• Temporal Coverage: Captures price variations over time, including daily discounts and price promotions

Product Selection & Tracking

• Durable and Goods Focus: The index includes products with an expected lifespan of three years or more, such as home appliances, consumer electronics, and tools.
• Brand & Model Tracking: Individual brands and models are monitored to reflect pricing shifts within competitive product segments, including both permanent changes in listing price as well as temporary promotional pricing.

Price Calculation, Adjustments, and Weighting

• Price Calculation: Tracks month-over-month and year-over-year price movements to measure price stability in the marketplace and take into account both longer-term changes in pricing (such as changes in manufacturer’s suggested retail price) as well as more short-term changes in pricing, such as promotional discounts and sales prices. 
• SKU-Removal Instead of Hedonic Adjustments: When a product (or SKU) becomes unavailable in the BLS goods basket, the BLS implements a SKU-replacement procedure whereby the next most similar product is used in its place, and a quality (hedonic) adjustment procedure is performed to get closer to an apples-to-apples price comparison. Since OpenBrand has data on nearly 100% of the SKUs pricing history in a given product category, we can simply remove that SKU from the basket and rely on price changes of the remaining SKUs in that basket. This eliminates the need for hedonic adjustment in the OpenBrand CPI basket.
• Weighting and Aggregation Method: A weighted geometric mean formula is used to minimize volatility and improve stability in price trend analysis at both the product grouping and category level. Instead of using sales-volume weights when aggregating the index, we take an alternative approach by using persistence-based weights for aggregation. Instead of more frequently purchased items getting more weight in the BLS’ CPI calculation, OpenBrand takes a more novel approach by weighting items with a more established price history in the market more heavily in our CPI calculation than items with a less established history.

Reporting & Updates

• High-Frequency Updates: Published freely on a monthly basis, with a subscription option for daily summaries across categories, sub-categories, and individual products.
• Comparative Benchmarks: We aggregate pricing as analogously as possible to traditional BLS CPI measures for benchmarking purposes.
• Transparency & Accessibility: Provides both open and paid data access for journalists, researchers, businesses, and policymakers.

By leveraging real-time data and advanced statistical techniques, the OpenBrand CPI offers an accurate and dynamic measure of pricing trends, helping businesses and consumers make informed decisions in an evolving economic landscape.