In January, price growth for consumer durables and personal goods accelerated after a slight pickup in December, with a month-over-month (MoM) increase of +0.75%. This is up from a revised monthly +0.43% increase in the month prior. However, it’s important to note that the acceleration was largely driven by a sharp increase in the recreation product group, growing at a rate of +2.44% month-over-month, up from +0.35% in December. Personal care products also added to the acceleration, growing to +0.65% in January from +0.18% in December. The other three product groups – appliances, communications, and home improvement – all showed price growth deceleration on a month-to-month basis, with communications posting the sole negative read month-over-month.

While month-over-month price growth in January was the largest gain in 12 months, it’s not unusual for the first month of the year to bring relatively sharp price increases. A new year is a new opportunity for manufacturers and retailers to adjust pricing, both in response to their holiday season promotions as well in response to broader market forces. If we compare price growth in January 2026 to price growth in January over the past decade, it ranks as fourth lowest (and second of the past five) and well below the +0.96% MoM average. Thus, much of the increase this January is likely due to normal seasonal upticks at the beginning of the year, rather than acceleration of inflationary forces.

• Key CPI Takeaways for January 2026 & Macroeconomic Outlook
• Product Group Highlights
  • Appliances
  • Communication
  • Home Improvement
  • Personal Care
  • Recreation
• CPI 2025 Forecast: Macroeconomic Summary
• Methodology

Overall OpenBrand Consumer Price Index Movement: The OpenBrand CPI of Durable and Personal Goods recorded a +0.75% monthly change in January, notching the fourteenth consecutive month-over-month increase and 19th of the last 20th months. The sharp price growth this month is building on gains from last month, possibly supported most by the large increase in the prices seen in the recreation group.

Discount Trends: January brought mixed changes in discount activity to the durables and personal goods sector, with frequencies climbing month-over-month to 23.1% of all durable and personal goods from 22.5% in the month prior.  The typical magnitude decreased slightly to 20.0%, down from 20.8% the month prior. 

Product Group Price Trends:  All product groups except communications and home improvement experienced an uptick in the rate of growth from the month prior, with prices of all groups except Communication climbing month-over-month.  The group summary is as follows:

• Appliance Group (+0.24%)  
• Communication Group (-0.29%)  
• Home Improvement Group (+0.69%)  
• Personal Care Group (+0.65%)  
• Recreation Group (+2.44%)  

See the full breakdown of product groupings. 

CPI: Appliances

Prices for appliances increased on a month-over-month basis in January to +0.24%, rising from a revised -0.59% in the month prior. The positive price growth was at least partially driven by the typical discount magnitude decreasing to 17.8% from 18.4%, while the frequency of discounts increased to 36.9% from 35.3% the month prior.

CPI: Communication

Prices of communication devices, including phones, tablets, computers, and printers, fell on a month-over-month basis to -0.29%, down sharply from a revised +1.31% the month prior. The frequency and magnitude of discounts were mixed in January. Frequency increased from 14.2% to 15.6%, while magnitude fell about 2 percentage points from 19.8% to 17.6% from December to January. The decrease in prices of communication devices most likely was led by the decent decrease in magnitude of discounts.

CPI: Home Improvement

Prices for home improvement goods decreased by +0.69% on a month-over-month basis in January, falling from a revised +0.88% in the month prior, showing 34 consecutive month-over-month flat or monthly increases.  The deceleration in price growth was at least partially driven by a decrease in the magnitude of discounts (17.4% from 18.7% the month prior), while the typical discount frequency remained flat at 9.8%.

CPI: Personal Care

Prices of personal care products grew sharply on a monthly basis in January by +0.65%. Some of this increase may be due to a decrease in the magnitude (falling from 22.7% in December to 22.3% in January) & an increase in the frequency of price discounts (rising from 22.9% in December to 23.6% in January).

CPI: Recreation

The rate of price growth of recreational products, including TVs, headphones, and speaker systems, increased to +2.44% on a month-over-month basis in January, up sharply from a revised +0.35% in December (growing by more than 2 percentage points in one month’s time). Some of this large increase in the pace of price growth is at least partially due to a decrease in the frequency of discounts – down to 29.7% in January from 30.3% in December – but the average magnitude of discounts remaining relatively flat – up only slightly to 24.6% from 24.5% over the same time period.

As of February 2026, the inflation picture for U.S. consumers has continued to improve, particularly when it comes to the everyday goods and big-ticket items that strained household budgets earlier in the decade. While prices remain higher than they were before the pandemic, the pace of price growth has slowed noticeably, and in several durable and personal goods categories, prices are now flat or edging modestly lower. For many households, this marks a tangible shift from inflation anxiety to cautious relief.

The most visible progress has been in durable goods. Prices for appliances, consumer electronics, and other household durables have stabilized after years of volatility. Retailers entered the year with healthier inventory levels and face a more price-sensitive consumer, prompting more frequent discounts and promotions. With demand no longer overheating and supply chains functioning more smoothly, sellers have less pricing power than they did just a few years ago. As a result, consumers shopping for replacement or discretionary items are increasingly finding that prices are no longer rising—and in some cases are slipping modestly.

Personal goods are following a similar trajectory, and are seeing slower price increases than in prior years. Many brands are working to hold prices steady to protect market share. The competitive nature of these categories, combined with easing input and transportation costs, has reduced the need for frequent price hikes. For consumers, this translates into more predictable spending and fewer unwelcome surprises at checkout.

A key driver behind this moderation is the continued fading of tariff-related cost pressures. The inflationary effects of Trump-era tariffs, which briefly raised prices across a wide range of imported consumer goods earlier last year, are now largely behind us. Companies have had time to adjust sourcing strategies, renegotiate supplier contracts, and absorb or offset costs that once flowed directly into retail prices. By early 2026, those tariff effects are no longer a major force pushing consumer goods prices higher.

The broader economic environment reinforces this trend. Economic growth remains steady but subdued, limiting demand-driven inflation. The labor market has cooled further, easing wage pressures that often spill over into goods prices. While employment remains stable, slower wage growth is helping keep overall cost pressures in check without undermining consumer purchasing power.

Interest rates also continue to shape the consumer landscape. Financial conditions remain restrictive enough to discourage excessive borrowing, particularly for large purchases, but expectations of gradual rate relief later in the year have improved consumer sentiment. This balance has encouraged cautious spending rather than the kind of demand surge that would reignite goods inflation.

For consumers in February 2026, the practical takeaway is that the inflation environment feels calmer and more manageable. Prices for durable and personal goods are no longer racing ahead, and in some categories are beginning to drift slightly lower. While this does not mean a return to pre-pandemic price levels, it does suggest that the era of sharp, goods-driven inflation has ended.

In short, early 2026 is shaping up as a period of stabilization for consumer goods prices. As tariff effects fade fully and competitive pressures intensify, households are benefiting from slower price growth, better availability, and a renewed sense of control over everyday spending decisions—a meaningful improvement after several challenging years.

Note: This summary is based on data available as of early February 2025 and may be subject to revisions in future releases.

For questions about the report, please contact Ralph McLaughlin at ralph@openbrand.com 

For press inquiries, please contact press@openbrand.com 

The OpenBrand CPI of Durable and Personal Goods is constructed using a data-driven methodology that ensures accuracy, timeliness, and transparency in measuring price trends for both short and long-lasting consumer products. The methodology consists of the following key components:

1. Data Collection

• Real-Time Price Tracking: Prices are sourced daily from online marketplaces, retail websites, and brick-and-mortar store listings.
• Retailer & Manufacturer Data: Aggregates pricing information from major retailers, direct-to-consumer brands, and wholesale suppliers into broader consumer categories.
• Temporal Coverage: Captures price variations over time, including daily discounts and price promotions

2. Product Selection & Tracking

• Durable and Personal Goods Focus: The index includes products with an expected lifespan of three years or more, such as home appliances, consumer electronics, and tools, as well as personal care products with a shorter lifespan, such as hair and skin care products, vitamins, over-the-counter medications, and oral care products. 
• Brand & Model Tracking: Individual brands and models are monitored to reflect pricing shifts within competitive product segments, including both permanent changes in listing price as well as temporary promotional pricing. 

3. Price Calculation, Adjustments, and Weighting

• Price Calculation: Tracks month-over-month and year-over-year price movements to measure price stability in the marketplace and take into account both longer-term changes in pricing (such as changes in manufacturer’s suggested retail price) as well as more short-term changes in pricing, such as promotional discounts and sales prices. 
• SKU-Removal Instead of Hedonic Adjustments: When a product (or SKU) becomes unavailable in the BLS goods basket, the BLS implements a SKU-replacement procedure whereby the next most similar product is used in its place, and a quality (hedonic) adjustment procedure is performed to get closer to an apples-to-apples price comparison. Since OpenBrand has data on nearly 100% of the SKUs pricing history in a given product category, we can simply remove that SKU from the basket and rely on price changes of the remaining SKUs in that basket. This eliminates the need for hedonic adjustment in the OpenBrand CPI basket.
• Weighting and Aggregation Method: A weighted geometric mean formula is used to minimize volatility and improve stability in price trend analysis at both the product grouping and category level. Instead of using sales-volume weights when aggregating the index, we take an alternative approach by using persistence-based weights for aggregation. Instead of more frequently purchased items getting more weight in the BLS’ CPI calculation, OpenBrand takes a more novel approach by weighting items with a more established price history in the market more heavily in our CPI calculation than items with a less established history.

4. Reporting & Updates

• High-Frequency Updates: Published freely on a monthly basis, with a subscription option for daily summaries across categories, sub-categories, and individual products.
• Comparative Benchmarks: We aggregate pricing as analogously as possible to traditional BLS CPI measures for benchmarking purposes.
• Transparency & Accessibility: Provides both open and paid data access for journalists, researchers, businesses, and policymakers.

By leveraging real-time data and advanced statistical techniques, the OpenBrand CPI offers an accurate and dynamic measure of pricing trends, helping businesses and consumers make informed decisions in an evolving economic landscape.

In December, price growth for consumer durables and personal goods accelerated after a significant slowdown in November, with a month-over-month increase of +0.24%. This is up from a revised monthly +0.04% increase in the month prior. While the rate of price growth accelerated in four out of our five product groups, the Appliance group continued to show significant price deceleration in December, with prices in that group now falling in three out of the past four months.

Now that 2025 is behind us, we can now conduct an annual look-back on price trends across our five product groups over the past 12 months. This is especially important in light of the new presidential administration’s trade policies that began in the early part of the year. Overall, the OpenBrand CPI-DPG grew by 3.0% between January and December, with relatively smooth growth throughout the year. Just after the year’s halfway point passed in July, aggregate prices were up by just 1.6%. The Communications group followed a similar trajectory, with 2.1% of the annual 4.0% growth occurring in the first half of the year. Home Improvement also followed a similar trend, with 2.8% of the annual 6.3% occurring by July.

However, the trend was noticeably different in both the Appliances and Personal Care groups, where price growth peaked earlier in the year followed by a decline. Appliances reached a peak cumulative price growth rate of 2.0% by August, before falling to a cumulative rate of 1.2% in December. Personal Care followed a similar path, peaking at 1.5% in September before ending the year with a cumulative growth rate of 1.0% in December.

• Key CPI Takeaways for December 2025 & Macroeconomic Outlook
• Product Group Highlights
  • Appliances
  • Communication
  • Home Improvement
  • Personal Care
  • Recreation
• CPI 2025 Forecast: Macroeconomic Summary
• Methodology

Overall OpenBrand Consumer Price Index Movement: The OpenBrand CPI of Durable and Personal Goods recorded a +0.24% monthly change in December, notching the thirteenth consecutive month-over-month increase and 18th of the last 19th months. The sharp price growth this month occurred alongside a decent increase in the frequency of discounts, suggesting that the rise was partially driven by an increase in non-discounted list prices.

Discount Trends: December brought an increase in discount activity to the durables and personal goods sector, with frequencies climbing month-over-month to 23.5% of all durable and personal goods from 19.2% in the month prior. The typical magnitude increased slightly to 20.9%, up only slightly from 20.7% the month prior. All product groups except the Communications Group & the Recreation Group experienced the highest discount magnitude for 2025, while the Communications Group experienced the highest discount frequency for 2025.

Product Group Price Trends:

All product groups except the Appliance group experienced both an uptick in the rate of growth from the month prior & an increase in prices month-over-month. The group summary is as follows:

• Appliance Group (-0.75%)  
• Communication Group (+0.76%)  
• Home Improvement Group (+0.86%)  
• Personal Care Group (+0.03%)  
• Recreation Group (+0.31%)  

See the full breakdown of product groupings. 

CPI: Appliances

Prices for appliances decreased on a month-over-month basis in December to -0.75%, falling from a revised +0.10% in the month prior. The negative price growth was at least partially driven by the typical discount magnitude increasing to 18.4% – the highest month this year- from 17.7%, while the frequency of discounts increased by almost 10 percentage points to 35.3% from 25.6% the month prior.

CPI: Communication

Prices of communication devices, including phones, tablets, computers, and printers, grew on a month-over-month basis to +0.76%, up slightly from a revised +0.06% the month prior. The frequency and magnitude of discounts were mixed in December. Frequency increased from 12.7% to 18.6%, while magnitude remained relatively flat, falling only in the slightest from 20.4% to 20.3% from November to December. The increase in prices of communication devices most likely was led by the significant increase in frequency of discounts, which rose this month by almost 6 percentage points compared to the month prior & boasts the highest frequency of discounts by quite a bit for 2025.

CPI: Home Improvement

Prices for home improvement goods increased by +0.86% on a month-over-month basis in December, growing from a revised +0.56% in the month prior, showing 33 consecutive month-over-month flat or monthly increases. The acceleration in price growth was at least partially driven by an increase in the magnitude of discounts (18.7% from 18.2% the month prior) – the highest for 2025, while the typical discount frequency remained flat at 10.2%.

CPI: Personal Care

Prices of personal care products grew on a monthly basis in December by +0.03%. Some of this increase may be due to an increase in both the magnitude (rising from 22.1% in November to 22.7% in December – recording the highest magnitude of discounts for 2025) & frequency of price discounts (rising from 22.9% in November to 23.4% in December).

CPI: Recreation

The rate of price growth of recreational products, including TVs, headphones, and speaker systems, increased to +0.31% on a month-over-month basis in December, up sharply from a revised -0.19% in November. Some of this increase in the pace of price growth is at least partially due to an increase in the frequency of discounts – up sharply to 29.7% in December from 24.8% in November – but a decrease in the average magnitude of discounts – down to 24.6% from 25.0% over the same time period.

As 2026 begins, U.S. consumers are likely to experience a welcome shift in the inflation story—one defined less by sticker shock and more by gradual stabilization. While prices are unlikely to fall broadly across the economy, the pace of price growth for durable and personal goods is expected to moderate meaningfully and, in some categories, edge modestly lower as lingering cost pressures from earlier trade policies and supply disruptions continue to unwind.

After several years of uneven inflation, the fundamentals for consumer goods pricing are improving. Supply chains are more normalized, inventories are healthier, and competitive pressures have returned in many retail categories. Importantly, the inflationary impulse from Trump-era tariffs—which raised costs on a wide range of imported consumer goods—has largely worked its way through the system. As contracts reset, sourcing adjusts, and global logistics remain relatively stable, the tariff pass-through that once pushed prices higher is fading into the background.

For consumers, this shift should be most noticeable in durable goods. Prices for big-ticket items such as appliances, furniture, electronics, and household equipment surged during and after the pandemic, only to cool sharply as demand softened and retailers worked through excess inventory. In 2026, those prices are expected to rise much more slowly than in prior years, and in some cases may drift lower in nominal terms as manufacturers and retailers compete more aggressively for value-conscious buyers. While prices are unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels, the era of rapid increases in durable goods appears firmly behind us.

Personal goods—including clothing, footwear, household supplies, and everyday consumer items—are also poised for a more favorable pricing environment. These categories tend to be highly competitive and sensitive to changes in input costs. As tariff effects fade and global production stabilizes, retailers are increasingly able to limit price increases or offer promotions without sacrificing margins. For many households, this means fewer surprise price hikes and more predictable spending on everyday items.

The broader economic backdrop supports this moderation. Economic growth in 2026 is expected to remain steady but unspectacular, which helps limit demand-driven inflation. At the same time, the labor market is cooling gradually, easing wage pressures that often filter into consumer prices. While wages are still rising, they are doing so at a pace that is more consistent with long-run price stability rather than inflation acceleration.

Interest rates are also likely to play a role in shaping consumer prices. As inflation continues to cool, the Federal Reserve is expected to move cautiously toward a less restrictive policy stance. Lower borrowing costs would help households manage debt and support spending, but not at a level that would reignite runaway demand. This balance—moderate growth without overheating—creates a favorable environment for stable pricing.

For consumers, the practical takeaway in 2026 is not a return to deflation, but a return to normalcy. Price growth for durable and personal goods is expected to slow to modest levels and, in select categories, flatten or decline slightly. The intense inflation pressures of the early 2020s are giving way to a period where shopping decisions feel less urgent and budgets become easier to plan.

In short, 2026 looks to be a year of inflation relief rather than inflation reversal for U.S. consumers. As the residual effects of tariffs and supply disruptions fade, goods prices should become more stable, competitive, and predictable—offering households a long-awaited sense that the worst of goods-driven inflation is finally in the rearview mirror.

Note: This summary is based on data available as of early January 2025 and may be subject to revisions in future releases.

For questions about the report, please contact Ralph McLaughlin at ralph@openbrand.com 

For press inquiries, please contact press@openbrand.com 

The OpenBrand CPI of Durable and Personal Goods is constructed using a data-driven methodology that ensures accuracy, timeliness, and transparency in measuring price trends for both short and long-lasting consumer products. The methodology consists of the following key components:

1. Data Collection

• Real-Time Price Tracking: Prices are sourced daily from online marketplaces, retail websites, and brick-and-mortar store listings.
• Retailer & Manufacturer Data: Aggregates pricing information from major retailers, direct-to-consumer brands, and wholesale suppliers into broader consumer categories.
• Temporal Coverage: Captures price variations over time, including daily discounts and price promotions

2. Product Selection & Tracking

• Durable and Personal Goods Focus: The index includes products with an expected lifespan of three years or more, such as home appliances, consumer electronics, and tools, as well as personal care products with a shorter lifespan, such as hair and skin care products, vitamins, over-the-counter medications, and oral care products. 
• Brand & Model Tracking: Individual brands and models are monitored to reflect pricing shifts within competitive product segments, including both permanent changes in listing price as well as temporary promotional pricing. 

3. Price Calculation, Adjustments, and Weighting

• Price Calculation: Tracks month-over-month and year-over-year price movements to measure price stability in the marketplace and take into account both longer-term changes in pricing (such as changes in manufacturer’s suggested retail price) as well as more short-term changes in pricing, such as promotional discounts and sales prices. 
• SKU-Removal Instead of Hedonic Adjustments: When a product (or SKU) becomes unavailable in the BLS goods basket, the BLS implements a SKU-replacement procedure whereby the next most similar product is used in its place, and a quality (hedonic) adjustment procedure is performed to get closer to an apples-to-apples price comparison. Since OpenBrand has data on nearly 100% of the SKUs pricing history in a given product category, we can simply remove that SKU from the basket and rely on price changes of the remaining SKUs in that basket. This eliminates the need for hedonic adjustment in the OpenBrand CPI basket.
• Weighting and Aggregation Method: A weighted geometric mean formula is used to minimize volatility and improve stability in price trend analysis at both the product grouping and category level. Instead of using sales-volume weights when aggregating the index, we take an alternative approach by using persistence-based weights for aggregation. Instead of more frequently purchased items getting more weight in the BLS’ CPI calculation, OpenBrand takes a more novel approach by weighting items with a more established price history in the market more heavily in our CPI calculation than items with a less established history.

4. Reporting & Updates

• High-Frequency Updates: Published freely on a monthly basis, with a subscription option for daily summaries across categories, sub-categories, and individual products.
• Comparative Benchmarks: We aggregate pricing as analogously as possible to traditional BLS CPI measures for benchmarking purposes.
• Transparency & Accessibility: Provides both open and paid data access for journalists, researchers, businesses, and policymakers.

By leveraging real-time data and advanced statistical techniques, the OpenBrand CPI offers an accurate and dynamic measure of pricing trends, helping businesses and consumers make informed decisions in an evolving economic landscape.

In November, price growth for consumer durables and personal goods decreased for the first time in a year, with a month-over-month decrease of -0.11%. This is down sharply from a revised monthly +0.21% increase in October. Prices of all product groups fell in November with the exception of the Home Improvement product group. What’s more, price growth was already negative before Black Friday deals hit on November 28th, with a month-over-month decrease in prices of -0.05% for the month-to-date prior to Black Friday. In addition, November brought the highest discount magnitude since January 2024.

However, when it comes to Black Friday weekend (we define it as the Friday, Saturday, and Sunday after Thanksgiving) 2025 also brought the greatest frequency of product discounts on a Black Friday weekend in the post-COVID era with 42.2% of products coming with a discount. This surpass the prior post-COVID high of 38.0% seen in 2022 and last year’s 34.0%.

• Key CPI Takeaways for November 2025 & Macroeconomic Outlook
• Product Group Highlights
  • Appliances
  • Communication
  • Home Improvement
  • Personal Care
  • Recreation
• CPI 2025 Forecast: Macroeconomic Summary
• Methodology

Overall OpenBrand Consumer Price Index Movement: The OpenBrand CPI of Durable and Personal Goods recorded a -0.11% monthly change in November, the first month-over-month decrease in 2025. The month-over-month slowdown in the pace of price growth was only the fourth slowdown of the calendar year.

Discount Trends: November brought an increase in discount activity to the durables and personal goods sector, with frequencies climbing month-over-month to 24.8% of all durable and personal goods from 24.3% in the month prior. The typical magnitude increased slightly to 20.9%, recording the highest magnitude in 2025 so far, and up from 20.6% the month prior. All product groups except the Communications Group experienced the highest discount magnitude for 2025 thus far.

Product Group Price Trends: All product groups except the personal care group experienced a slowdown in the rate of growth from the month prior, with prices of all groups except Home Improvement declining month-over-month. The group summary is as follows:

• Appliance Group (-0.68%)
• Communication Group (-0.03%)
• Home Improvement Group (+0.51%)
• Personal Care Group (-0.21%)
• Recreation Group (-0.16%)

See the full breakdown of product groupings. 

CPI: Appliances

Prices for appliances decreased sharply on a month-over-month basis in November to -0.68%, falling from a revised -0.19% in the month prior. The negative price growth was at least partially driven by the typical discount magnitude increasing to 17.5% – the highest month so far this year- from 17.1%, while the frequency of discounts decreased to 42.1% from 42.7% the month prior).

CPI: Communication

Prices of communication devices, including phones, tablets, computers, and printers, fell on a month-over-month basis to -0.03.%, down sharply again from a revised +0.63% the month prior. The frequency and magnitude of discounts were mixed in November, moving from 13.7% to 19.1% and 21.2% to 20.3% from October to November, respectively. The sharp decrease in prices of communication devices most likely was led by the significant increase in frequency of discounts, which rose this month by over 5 percentage points compared to the month prior & is also the highest frequency of discounts by quite a bit for 2025 so far.

CPI: Home Improvement

Prices for home improvement goods increased by +0.51% on a month-over-month basis in November, slowing from a revised +0.52% in the month prior, showing 32 consecutive month-over-month flat or monthly increases.  The deceleration in price growth was at least partially driven by an decrease in the frequency of discounts (12.2% from 13.8% the month prior), while the typical discount magnitude grew  to 18.7% – the highest for this year thus far – from 18.3%.

CPI: Personal Care

Prices of personal care products fell on a monthly basis in November by -0.21%.  Some of this decrease may be due to an increase in the magnitude of price discounts (rising from 21.7% in October to 22.5% in November – recording the highest magnitude of discounts for 2025 so far) in conjunction with the frequency of discounts remaining relatively flat (falling only slightly from 22.8% in October to 22.6% in November).

CPI: Recreation

The rate of price growth of recreational products, including TVs, headphones, and speaker systems, decreased to -0.16% on a month-over-month basis in November, down sharply from a revised +0.48% in October. Some of this decrease in the pace of price growth is at least partially due to a decrease in the frequency of discounts – down to 27.9% in November from 28.4% in October – but an increase in the average magnitude of discounts – up to 25.4% from 24.8% over the same time period – showcasing the highest magnitude of discounts thus far in 2025.

As December 2025 begins, the U.S. economy is slowing but not stalling, and the question dominating financial markets is whether the Federal Reserve will deliver its third interest-rate cut this year at the December 10 FOMC meeting. The economy has made steady—though uneven—progress on inflation throughout the year, and the Fed now faces a delicate balance between sustaining disinflation and preventing an overly sharp deceleration in growth.

Inflation is continuing its gradual descent. Headline consumer price growth is now firmly in the low 3% range year over year, down from the elevated levels seen earlier in the tightening cycle. Core inflation is cooling, though at a slower pace, weighed down by persistent pressures in services. Shelter costs remain a particular challenge: while new-lease rent growth has softened considerably, the lagged impact of earlier increases is still flowing through the index. Health care, insurance, and other labor-intensive service categories are also contributing to stickiness. Yet the overall trend remains encouraging, and for the first time in many months, policymakers can observe a pattern of month-after-month improvement.

The labor market is showing clearer signs of cooling as well. Hiring has slowed to a modest pace, unemployment is hovering just over 4%, and wage growth—once a key source of inflationary pressure—has eased back toward a more sustainable range. Importantly, labor market softness is not yet translating into a collapse in job opportunities or a surge in layoffs. Instead, it points to an economy moving closer to balance: still expanding, but losing momentum as businesses grow more cautious.

Consumer spending remains surprisingly resilient, supported by positive real wage growth and continued demand for services heading into the holiday season. But household budgets are stretched, particularly among lower-income consumers. High interest rates on mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards continue to act as a drag, and delinquencies are rising from historically low levels. The result is a consumer sector that is still driving the expansion—but doing so at a slower and more fragile pace.

Business investment has softened, especially in interest-sensitive sectors, while global conditions continue to limit export growth. Manufacturing activity is subdued, and companies are increasingly focused on efficiency rather than expansion. These dynamics are consistent with an economy that remains fundamentally sound but increasingly vulnerable to weaker demand.

All of this places the Federal Reserve in a difficult but not impossible position as it approaches its December 10 decision. On one hand, the Fed has long maintained that it would need “greater confidence” that inflation is on a durable path back to 2% before cutting rates. Recent data has moved in the right direction, but not overwhelmingly so. On the other hand, keeping rates at restrictive levels risks tightening financial conditions too much at a moment when the economy is already slowing and the labor market is gradually loosening.

Market expectations ahead of the meeting reflect this tension. Investors are split: some anticipate that the Fed will use December to signal the beginning of a gradual normalization process with a modest quarter-point cut. Others expect the Fed to wait until early 2026, particularly if service-sector inflation remains sticky or labor market conditions strengthen unexpectedly. The Fed itself has remained cautious in its public communications, emphasizing data dependence and maintaining flexibility.

Ultimately, the likelihood of a December rate cut hinges on the final readings of inflation and labor market conditions released in the days leading up to the meeting. If both show continued cooling, the Fed may judge that the balance of risks has shifted sufficiently toward supporting growth. If not, policymakers may prefer to hold rates steady and begin easing early in the new year.

In short, the December 2025 outlook reflects an economy moving through the late stages of disinflation, with growth softening and monetary policy nearing an inflection point. Whether another cut arrives on December 10 or a few months later, the direction of policy is now clearly turning—and the next phase of the economic cycle will depend on how smoothly that transition unfolds.

Note: This summary is based on data available as of early December 2025 and may be subject to revisions in future releases.

For questions about the report, please contact Ralph McLaughlin at ralph@openbrand.com 

For press inquiries, please contact press@openbrand.com 

The OpenBrand CPI of Durable and Personal Goods is constructed using a data-driven methodology that ensures accuracy, timeliness, and transparency in measuring price trends for both short and long-lasting consumer products. The methodology consists of the following key components:

1. Data Collection

• Real-Time Price Tracking: Prices are sourced daily from online marketplaces, retail websites, and brick-and-mortar store listings.
• Retailer & Manufacturer Data: Aggregates pricing information from major retailers, direct-to-consumer brands, and wholesale suppliers into broader consumer categories.
• Temporal Coverage: Captures price variations over time, including daily discounts and price promotions

2. Product Selection & Tracking

• Durable and Personal Goods Focus: The index includes products with an expected lifespan of three years or more, such as home appliances, consumer electronics, and tools, as well as personal care products with a shorter lifespan, such as hair and skin care products, vitamins, over-the-counter medications, and oral care products. 
• Brand & Model Tracking: Individual brands and models are monitored to reflect pricing shifts within competitive product segments, including both permanent changes in listing price as well as temporary promotional pricing. 

3. Price Calculation, Adjustments, and Weighting

• Price Calculation: Tracks month-over-month and year-over-year price movements to measure price stability in the marketplace and take into account both longer-term changes in pricing (such as changes in manufacturer’s suggested retail price) as well as more short-term changes in pricing, such as promotional discounts and sales prices. 
• SKU-Removal Instead of Hedonic Adjustments: When a product (or SKU) becomes unavailable in the BLS goods basket, the BLS implements a SKU-replacement procedure whereby the next most similar product is used in its place, and a quality (hedonic) adjustment procedure is performed to get closer to an apples-to-apples price comparison. Since OpenBrand has data on nearly 100% of the SKUs pricing history in a given product category, we can simply remove that SKU from the basket and rely on price changes of the remaining SKUs in that basket. This eliminates the need for hedonic adjustment in the OpenBrand CPI basket.
• Weighting and Aggregation Method: A weighted geometric mean formula is used to minimize volatility and improve stability in price trend analysis at both the product grouping and category level. Instead of using sales-volume weights when aggregating the index, we take an alternative approach by using persistence-based weights for aggregation. Instead of more frequently purchased items getting more weight in the BLS’ CPI calculation, OpenBrand takes a more novel approach by weighting items with a more established price history in the market more heavily in our CPI calculation than items with a less established history.

4. Reporting & Updates

• High-Frequency Updates: Published freely on a monthly basis, with a subscription option for daily summaries across categories, sub-categories, and individual products.
• Comparative Benchmarks: We aggregate pricing as analogously as possible to traditional BLS CPI measures for benchmarking purposes.
• Transparency & Accessibility: Provides both open and paid data access for journalists, researchers, businesses, and policymakers.

By leveraging real-time data and advanced statistical techniques, the OpenBrand CPI offers an accurate and dynamic measure of pricing trends, helping businesses and consumers make informed decisions in an evolving economic landscape.

In October, price growth for consumer durables and personal goods decelerated for the first time in three months, with a month-over-month increase of +0.22% compared to a revised monthly +0.48% increase in September. Deceleration of price growth was observed across all of our price groups except communication devices, with prices of both appliances and personal goods seeing nominal price deflation in October. Amongst appliances, decreases were observed across most categories of products.

Amongst products in the appliance and personal care groups, we find a number of categories have been on a downward price growth trajectory over the past several months. For example, prices of hair dryers jumped 1.15% month-over-month in August, but slowed to 0.82% in September and fell by -1.27% in October. Similarly, laundry – including washers and dryers – grew by +0.90% in August, but fell by 0.48% in September and 0.86% in October. See chart below for select examples of other appliances and personal care products that experienced price declines last month.

• Key CPI Takeaways for October 2025 & Macroeconomic Outlook
• Product Group Highlights
  • Appliances
  • Communication
  • Home Improvement
  • Personal Care
  • Recreation
• CPI 2025 Forecast: Macroeconomic Summary
• Methodology

Overall OpenBrand Consumer Price Index Movement: The OpenBrand CPI of Durable and Personal Goods recorded a +0.22% monthly change in October, notching the eleventh consecutive month-over-month increase and 16th of the last 17th. The month-over-month slowdown in the pace of price growth was only the third slowdown of the calendar year.

Discount Trends: October brought mixed changes in discount activity to the durables and personal goods sector, with frequencies falling month-over-month to 24.6% of all durable and personal goods from 25.5% in the month prior.  The typical magnitude increased slightly to 20.4%, almost matching the highest recording since July 2024, and up from 20.0% the month prior. 

Product Group Price Trends: All product groups except the communications group experienced a slowdown in the rate of growth from the month prior, with prices of both appliances and personal care products actually declining month-over-month. The group summary is as follows:

• Appliance Group (-0.20%)
• Communication Group (+0.65%)
• Home Improvement Group (+0.49%)
• Personal Care Group (-0.33%)
• Recreation Group (+0.49%)

See the full breakdown of product groupings. 

CPI: Appliances

Prices for appliances decreased on a month-over-month basis in October to -0.20%, falling from a revised +0.01% in the month prior. The negative price growth was at least partially driven by the typical discount magnitude increasing slightly to 17.0% from 16.8%, while the frequency of discounts remained relatively unchanged (decreasing only slightly to 42.8% from 42.9% the month prior).

CPI: Communication

Prices of communication devices, including phones, tablets, computers, and printers, rose on a month-over-month basis to +0.65%, up sharply again from a revised +0.24% the month prior. The frequency and magnitude of discounts were mixed in October, moving from 16.8% to 14.1% and 20.0% to 20.2% from September to October, respectively. The sharp rise in prices of communication devices most likely was led by the significant decline in frequency of discounts, which fell again this month by almost 3 percentage points compared to the month prior.

CPI: Home Improvement

Prices for home improvement goods increased by +0.49% on a month-over-month basis in October, slowing from a revised +0.73% in the month prior, showing 31 consecutive month-over-month flat or monthly increases. The deceleration in price growth was at least partially driven by an increase in the frequency of discounts (13.9% from 13.4% the month prior), while the typical discount magnitude remained relatively flat, growing only slightly to 18.3% from 18.1%.

CPI: Personal Care

Prices of personal care products fell on a monthly basis in October 2025 by -0.33%. Some of this decrease may be due to a mild increase in the frequency and magnitude of price discounts, with the frequency of discounts remaining relatively flat, increasing only slightly from 24.1% in September to 24.3% in October, and the average discount magnitude growing from 20.7% to 21.6% over the same period.

CPI: Recreation

The rate of price growth of recreational products, including TVs, headphones, and speaker systems, decreased to +0.49% on a month-over-month basis in October, down sharply from a revised +0.79% in September. Some of this decrease in the pace of price growth is at least partially due to a decrease in the frequency of discounts – to 28.1% in October from 30.1% in September – but a slight increase in the average magnitude of discounts – to 24.7% from 24.4% over the same time period.

Entering November 2025, the U.S. economy finds itself navigating a fragile transition: growth remains positive, but with mounting headwinds — and among the most salient of those is the protracted federal government shutdown that began on October 1. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the shutdown could reduce real GDP growth in the fourth quarter by 1.0 to 2.0 percentage points, and an estimated $7 billion to $14 billion of output may be permanently lost depending on duration. 

The economic effects are being felt in several ways. First, with roughly 750,000 federal workers furloughed or working without pay, households directly tied to the public sector are already tightening spending. This has immediate implications for consumption — especially in parts of the economy that rely on federal payrolls, travel and lodging near Washington, D.C., and contract staffing on federal projects.

Second, the shutdown is delaying and disrupting government-provided services and payments, including food assistance (SNAP) benefits, permit and regulatory approvals, and contract payments to businesses. These disruptions dampen business investment and consumer confidence, adding another negative drag. 

On the inflation front, the shutdown creates a mixed picture. On one hand, the decline in federal employee pay and some delayed spending could exert mild downward pressure on aggregate demand and thus ease some inflationary pressure. On the other hand, disruptions to services, regulatory bottlenecks, and uncertainty may raise input costs and risk premium for firms, which could be passed on to consumers. Therefore, while headline inflation may remain fairly stable in the near term, underlying volatility and sectoral divergences are increasing.

The labor market remains relatively resilient — unemployment remains low by historical standards, and wage growth, though moderating, continues to run above pre-pandemic levels. But there are signs of emerging fragility: companies are issuing layoff notices, some sectors dependent on federal contracting are pausing hiring, and households with interrupted pay are delaying purchases. These factors suggest that while the labor market is not collapsing, its capacity to cushion the economy is weakening.

Monetary policy is likely to remain cautious and vigilant. The Federal Reserve will have to weigh the dual mandate of supporting the economy and labor market against the risk of inflation re-accelerating. The shutdown complicates the data picture, with statistical releases being delayed or impaired, which makes real-time assessment and policy calibration more difficult. 

Looking ahead, the key scenarios for November and beyond are clear: if the shutdown is resolved promptly — say within the first half of November — the economic drag may be limited, enabling a relatively normal holiday spending season and moderate growth into 2026. But if the impasse drags on into December, the risks of weaker consumption, delayed investment, worsening confidence, and a slower reopening rebound become much more pronounced.

In summary, for November 2025 the U.S. economy is balancing on a see saw. The federal government shutdown is a significant wildcard: it is dragging on growth, creating uncertainty, and complicating policy. While the fundamentals (consumer spending, employment) remain reasonably solid, the shutdown adds a non-trivial risk of a soft patch, or worse, if not resolved soon. Inflation may not spike, but the underlying resilience of households and businesses is being tested — and in this environment, the margin of safety is narrowing.

Note: This summary is based on data available as of early November 2025 and may be subject to revisions in future releases.

For questions about the report, please contact Ralph McLaughlin at ralph@openbrand.com 

For press inquiries, please contact press@openbrand.com 

The OpenBrand CPI of Durable and Personal Goods is constructed using a data-driven methodology that ensures accuracy, timeliness, and transparency in measuring price trends for both short and long-lasting consumer products. The methodology consists of the following key components:

1. Data Collection

• Real-Time Price Tracking: Prices are sourced daily from online marketplaces, retail websites, and brick-and-mortar store listings.
• Retailer & Manufacturer Data: Aggregates pricing information from major retailers, direct-to-consumer brands, and wholesale suppliers into broader consumer categories.
• Temporal Coverage: Captures price variations over time, including daily discounts and price promotions

2. Product Selection & Tracking

• Durable and Personal Goods Focus: The index includes products with an expected lifespan of three years or more, such as home appliances, consumer electronics, and tools, as well as personal care products with a shorter lifespan, such as hair and skin care products, vitamins, over-the-counter medications, and oral care products. 
• Brand & Model Tracking: Individual brands and models are monitored to reflect pricing shifts within competitive product segments, including both permanent changes in listing price as well as temporary promotional pricing. 

3. Price Calculation, Adjustments, and Weighting

• Price Calculation: Tracks month-over-month and year-over-year price movements to measure price stability in the marketplace and take into account both longer-term changes in pricing (such as changes in manufacturer’s suggested retail price) as well as more short-term changes in pricing, such as promotional discounts and sales prices. 
• SKU-Removal Instead of Hedonic Adjustments: When a product (or SKU) becomes unavailable in the BLS goods basket, the BLS implements a SKU-replacement procedure whereby the next most similar product is used in its place, and a quality (hedonic) adjustment procedure is performed to get closer to an apples-to-apples price comparison. Since OpenBrand has data on nearly 100% of the SKUs pricing history in a given product category, we can simply remove that SKU from the basket and rely on price changes of the remaining SKUs in that basket. This eliminates the need for hedonic adjustment in the OpenBrand CPI basket.
• Weighting and Aggregation Method: A weighted geometric mean formula is used to minimize volatility and improve stability in price trend analysis at both the product grouping and category level. Instead of using sales-volume weights when aggregating the index, we take an alternative approach by using persistence-based weights for aggregation. Instead of more frequently purchased items getting more weight in the BLS’ CPI calculation, OpenBrand takes a more novel approach by weighting items with a more established price history in the market more heavily in our CPI calculation than items with a less established history.

4. Reporting & Updates

• High-Frequency Updates: Published freely on a monthly basis, with a subscription option for daily summaries across categories, sub-categories, and individual products.
• Comparative Benchmarks: We aggregate pricing as analogously as possible to traditional BLS CPI measures for benchmarking purposes.
• Transparency & Accessibility: Provides both open and paid data access for journalists, researchers, businesses, and policymakers.

By leveraging real-time data and advanced statistical techniques, the OpenBrand CPI offers an accurate and dynamic measure of pricing trends, helping businesses and consumers make informed decisions in an evolving economic landscape.

Price growth for consumer durables and personal goods accelerated for a second consecutive month in September, with a month-over-month increase of +0.58% compared to a revised monthly +0.45% increase in August. The acceleration of price growth was observed across three of our price groupings – Communication, Personal Care, and Recreational goods. Both Appliances and Home Improvement goods – which are comprised of products that were likely to be exempt from the now-eliminated duty-free de minimis treatment – saw price deceleration in September, a possible sign that the impacts of tariffs on these product groups may be starting to wane. In particular, prices of appliances showed no growth in September and were down from just under 0.5% growth between July and August.

What’s more, we find that products in the personal care product group dominated the top 10 list of categories with the largest month-over-month price growth. Of the 10 categories with the largest swings from negative to positive growth over the past two months, nine of the top 10 are in the personal care group and one in the recreation group, with categories such as breath fresheners, first aid treatments, deodorants media players, and shaving cream shifting from negative month-over-month growth in July, to between 1-3% in September.

• Key CPI Takeaways for August 2025 & Macroeconomic Outlook
• Product Group Highlights
  • Appliances
  • Communication
  • Home Improvement
  • Personal Care
  • Recreation
• CPI 2025 Forecast: Macroeconomic Summary
• Methodology

Overall OpenBrand Consumer Price Index Movement: The OpenBrand CPI of Durable and Personal Goods recorded a +0.58% monthly change in September, notching the tenth consecutive month-over-month increase and 15th of the last 16th. The increase in prices built on gains from the prior month, with an increase in discount magnitude being overshadowed by a much larger decrease in frequency of discounts.

Discount Trends: September brought mixed changes in discount activity to the durables and personal goods sector, with frequencies falling month-over-month to 23.1% of all durable and personal goods from 24.4% in the month prior.  The typical magnitude increased to 20.6%, matching the highest recording in 2025 back in March, from 19.7% the month prior. With the falling frequency of discounts overshadowing an increase in discount magnitude, aggregate prices had strong growth this month compared to the month prior.

Product Group Price Trends: Four product groups – Communications, Home Improvement, Personal Care, and Recreation – all experienced increases in the rate of price growth from the prior month, while the Appliance group experienced a flat month. The group summary is as follows:

• Appliance Group (+0.0%)
• Communication Group (+0.76%)
• Home Improvement Group (+0.69%)
• Personal Care Group (+0.76%)
• Recreation Group (+0.68%)

See the full breakdown of product groupings. 

CPI: Appliances

Prices for appliances were flat on a month-over-month basis in September, falling from +0.48% in the month prior. The flat price growth was at least partially driven by the typical discount magnitude remaining flat at 16.9%, while the frequency of discounts decreased (44.0% from 45.0% the month prior).

CPI: Communication

Prices of communication devices, including phones, tablets, computers, and printers, rose on a month-over-month basis to +0.76%, up  sharply from a revised +0.38% the month prior. The frequency and magnitude of discounts were mixed in September, moving from 12.1% to 7.9% and 20.6% to 23.2% from August to September, respectively.  The sharp rise in prices of communication devices most likely was lead by the significant decline in frequency of discounts, which fell by about 4 percentage points compared to last month.

CPI: Home Improvement

The rate of increase for the price index of home improvement goods  decreased slightly on a month-over-month basis, falling to +0.69% (down from +0.74% the month prior), showing 30 consecutive month-over-month flat or monthly increases. The increase in prices comes amidst a slight increase in the frequency (rising to 12.2% from 11.9%) of discounts, while the magnitude remained relatively flat, growing to 18.3% from 18.2%.

CPI: Personal Care

Prices of personal care products increased sharply on a monthly basis in September by +0.76%, up from a revised +0.47% in August. This increase comes amidst mixed responses in both the frequency and magnitude of discounts, with the frequency falling to 22.4% from 25.3%. This decrease in frequency of discounts could be the key to the rise in prices of personal care products. The rise in the frequency of discounts was enough to counteract the magnitude increase from to 21.5% from 20.5% between August and September. 

CPI: Recreation

The rate of price growth of recreational products, including TVs, headphones, and speaker systems, increased sharply to +0.68% on a month-over-month basis in September, up from a revised +0.20% in August. Counterintuitively, the frequency of discounts increased to 28.8% in September from 27.5% in August and the average magnitude of discounts increased to 22.9% from 22.4% over the same time period. In order for price growth to rise with discounts increasing in both frequency and magnitude, it’s likely the case that sellers disguised price increases by increase apparent discounts by raising the list price more than the shelf price, leading to an apparent increase in discount magnitudes at the same time prices paid by the consumer also rise.

As of October 2025, the U.S. economy is at a critical juncture, transitioning from a period of stubborn inflationary pressure toward a more stable, though slower, growth environment. The pace of economic expansion has moderated, but the economy has avoided a sharp contraction, reflecting the resilience of consumers and businesses despite higher borrowing costs.

Inflation has cooled markedly from its post-pandemic highs, with headline price growth settling in the mid-3% range year-over-year. Yet the path toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% target remains uncertain. Goods inflation, which was once a source of disinflationary momentum, has turned slightly positive again as trade realignments, energy costs, and domestic sourcing requirements push input prices higher. Durable goods categories such as appliances, electronics, and autos have seen renewed price growth, in part reflecting steady consumer demand and supply-side frictions.

The most persistent price pressures remain in the services sector. Housing costs are the clearest example: mortgage rates remain elevated, keeping many homeowners locked in and limiting supply, while household formation continues to sustain strong rental demand. As a result, shelter inflation remains above overall price growth, constraining household budgets and prolonging the disinflation process. Other services, including health care and insurance, are also contributing to upward pressure.

The labor market, while cooling, continues to support the broader economy. Unemployment has edged up to just over 4%, but this remains historically low. Wage growth has slowed from its peaks but is still running faster than the pre-pandemic average, helping households maintain spending power. This dynamic has been crucial in preventing a sharper slowdown, though it has also made the “last mile” of disinflation more challenging.

Monetary policy remains firmly in restrictive territory, but is loosening. The Federal Reserve has kept rates elevated through the summer and fall, emphasizing that while progress has been made on inflation, it is not yet confident that price stability has been restored. The Federal Reserve did lower rates by 25 basis points last month, and markets are increasingly looking to the end of 2025 for continued signs of loosening with expectations of two more rate cuts by the end of the year. However, the Fed is signaling caution, wary of undoing gains too quickly.

Externally, the U.S. is contending with mixed global conditions. Sluggish growth in Europe and a fragile recovery in China have weighed on export demand, while geopolitical risks continue to threaten energy and food markets. At the same time, federal investment programs—particularly in infrastructure, clean energy, and domestic manufacturing—are providing support to key sectors and creating regional pockets of strength.

Taken together, the outlook for October 2025 points to an economy that is slowing but stable, with inflation gradually easing yet still above target. The balance of risks lies in how long consumer resilience can hold against elevated borrowing costs and whether service-sector inflation can cool without requiring a more pronounced economic slowdown. The coming quarters will be pivotal in determining whether the U.S. achieves a soft landing or faces a more drawn-out adjustment toward price stability and sustainable growth.

Note: This summary is based on data available as of early October 2025 and may be subject to revisions in future releases.

For questions about the report, please contact Ralph McLaughlin at ralph@openbrand.com 

For press inquiries, please contact press@openbrand.com 

The OpenBrand CPI of Durable and Personal Goods is constructed using a data-driven methodology that ensures accuracy, timeliness, and transparency in measuring price trends for both short and long-lasting consumer products. The methodology consists of the following key components:

1. Data Collection

• Real-Time Price Tracking: Prices are sourced daily from online marketplaces, retail websites, and brick-and-mortar store listings.
• Retailer & Manufacturer Data: Aggregates pricing information from major retailers, direct-to-consumer brands, and wholesale suppliers into broader consumer categories.
• Temporal Coverage: Captures price variations over time, including daily discounts and price promotions

2. Product Selection & Tracking

• Durable and Personal Goods Focus: The index includes products with an expected lifespan of three years or more, such as home appliances, consumer electronics, and tools, as well as personal care products with a shorter lifespan, such as hair and skin care products, vitamins, over-the-counter medications, and oral care products. 
• Brand & Model Tracking: Individual brands and models are monitored to reflect pricing shifts within competitive product segments, including both permanent changes in listing price as well as temporary promotional pricing. 

3. Price Calculation, Adjustments, and Weighting

• Price Calculation: Tracks month-over-month and year-over-year price movements to measure price stability in the marketplace and take into account both longer-term changes in pricing (such as changes in manufacturer’s suggested retail price) as well as more short-term changes in pricing, such as promotional discounts and sales prices. 
• SKU-Removal Instead of Hedonic Adjustments: When a product (or SKU) becomes unavailable in the BLS goods basket, the BLS implements a SKU-replacement procedure whereby the next most similar product is used in its place, and a quality (hedonic) adjustment procedure is performed to get closer to an apples-to-apples price comparison. Since OpenBrand has data on nearly 100% of the SKUs pricing history in a given product category, we can simply remove that SKU from the basket and rely on price changes of the remaining SKUs in that basket. This eliminates the need for hedonic adjustment in the OpenBrand CPI basket.
• Weighting and Aggregation Method: A weighted geometric mean formula is used to minimize volatility and improve stability in price trend analysis at both the product grouping and category level. Instead of using sales-volume weights when aggregating the index, we take an alternative approach by using persistence-based weights for aggregation. Instead of more frequently purchased items getting more weight in the BLS’ CPI calculation, OpenBrand takes a more novel approach by weighting items with a more established price history in the market more heavily in our CPI calculation than items with a less established history.

4. Reporting & Updates

• High-Frequency Updates: Published freely on a monthly basis, with a subscription option for daily summaries across categories, sub-categories, and individual products.
• Comparative Benchmarks: We aggregate pricing as analogously as possible to traditional BLS CPI measures for benchmarking purposes.
• Transparency & Accessibility: Provides both open and paid data access for journalists, researchers, businesses, and policymakers.

By leveraging real-time data and advanced statistical techniques, the OpenBrand CPI offers an accurate and dynamic measure of pricing trends, helping businesses and consumers make informed decisions in an evolving economic landscape.

Price growth for consumer durables and personal goods reaccelerated on a monthly basis in August, with a month-over-month increase of +0.43% compared to a revised monthly +0.24% increase in July. The reacceleration of price growth was observed across all of our price groupings except recreational goods, and is a rebound from a very active month of discounts in July due to Amazon’s Prime Week. What’s more, the reacceleration in August comes amid a slate of new tariffs as well as elimination of the duty-free de minimis treatment, allowing the U.S. Customs and Border Protection to collect tariffs on packaged goods that are below the previous exclusionary threshold of $800.

What’s more, we find that a variety of products in the appliances, communication, home improvement, and personal care sectors were responsible for the price acceleration. Large monthly increases were observed among select desktop computers, dishwashers, outdoor cooking, power tools/accessories, shampoo/conditioner, shaving razors, vacuums, and wearable electronics, with several of these products swinging from negative to positive month-over-month growth between July and August.

• Key CPI Takeaways for August 2025 & Macroeconomic Outlook
• Product Group Highlights
  • Appliances
  • Communication
  • Home Improvement
  • Personal Care
  • Recreation
• CPI 2025 Forecast: Macroeconomic Summary
• Methodology

Overall OpenBrand Consumer Price Index Movement: The OpenBrand CPI of Durable and Personal Goods recorded a +0.43% monthly change in August, notching the ninth consecutive month-over-month increase and 14th of the last 15th. The increase was also a reacceleration from July’s revised figure of +0.24%, when Amazon – and other retailers – ramped up discounting activity during Prime Week. A recap of those discounting trends can be found in last month’s report.

Discount Trends: August brought relatively small changes in discount activity to the durables and personal goods sector, with frequencies rising month-over-month by just 100 basis points to 25.2% of all durable and personal goods from 24.7% in the month prior. This was the highest reading since December 202.. Despite the uptick in discount frequency in August, the typical magnitude decreased to 19.9% from 20.4% the month prior. Given that prices accelerated in the aggregate, this suggests that retailers may be hiding net price increases by increasing the apparent discount rate to consumers. 

Product Group Price Trends: Four product groups – Appliances, Communications, Home Improvement, and Personal Care – all experienced increases in the rate of price growth from the prior month, while the Recreation group also experienced an increase but at a slower rate than the month prior. The group summary is as follows:

• Appliance Group (+0.48%)
• Communication Group (+0.39%)
• Home Improvement Group (+0.68%)
• Personal Care Group (+0.37%)
• Recreation Group (+0.23%)

See the full breakdown of product groupings. 

CPI: Appliances

Prices for appliances increased by +0.48% on a month-over-month basis in August, rising from a revised increase of +0.26% in the month prior. The acceleration in price growth was at least partially driven by a decrease in the frequency of discounts (45.1% from 46.0% the month prior), while the typical discount magnitude decreased to 16.9% from 17.3% the month prior.

CPI: Communication

rices of communication devices, including phones, tablets, computers, and printers, rose on a month-over-month basis to +0.39%, up sharply from a revised +0.15% the month prior. The frequency and magnitude of discounts was essentially unchanged in August, moving from 12.1% to 12.0% and 20.6% to 20.5% from July to August, respectively.

CPI: Home Improvement

The rate of increase for the price index of home improvement goods increased slightly on a month-over-month basis, growing to +0.68% (up from +0.60% the month prior), showing 28 consecutive month-over-month flat or monthly increases. The increase in prices comes amidst a slight increase in the frequency (rising to 16.3% from 15.1%) of discounts, while the magnitude remained unchanged at 18.8%.

CPI: Personal Care

Prices of personal care products increased sharply on a monthly basis in August by +0.37%, up from -0.21% in July. This increase comes amidst decreases in both the frequency and magnitude of discounts, with the frequency falling to 25.5% from 26.0% and the magnitude falling to 21.6% from 20.6% between July and August.

CPI: Recreation

The rate of price growth of recreational products, including TVs, headphones, and speaker systems, decreased to +0.23% on a month-over-month basis in August, down from a revised +0.41% in July. Some of this decrease in the pace of price growth is at least partially due to a sharp increase in the frequency of discounts – to 27.2% in August from 24.2% in July – but a slight decrease in the average magnitude of discounts – to 22.5% from 23.8% over the same time period.

As of September 2025, the U.S. economy is navigating a careful transition from an inflation-driven tightening cycle toward a period of slower, more balanced growth. After two years of aggressive monetary policy and supply-side adjustments, inflation has eased significantly from its peak but remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Headline inflation is hovering in the low-3% range, while core inflation continues to show stickiness, particularly in services, signaling that the final stretch of disinflation will be the most difficult.

The labor market, though cooling from the ultra-tight conditions of 2022 and 2023, remains historically strong. Unemployment is holding near 4.2%, and wage growth, while moderating, is still above the pre-pandemic trend. These labor dynamics have kept consumer spending steady, particularly in services, even as borrowing costs weigh on big-ticket purchases. This resilience is contributing to the “last mile” problem for inflation, with services and housing costs continuing to grow faster than goods prices.

Housing markets remain a point of stress. While mortgage rates have inched down from their highs, affordability challenges persist due to elevated home prices and limited inventory. Rent inflation, though slowing slightly, remains firm in many metro areas. Insurance costs—driven by climate-related risks and regulatory shifts—are adding an additional layer of price pressure for homeowners and businesses alike.

Energy markets are stable for now but remain a potential wildcard. Increased renewable generation and domestic energy investment have helped stabilize fuel prices, but geopolitical tensions and climate-driven supply disruptions keep the sector vulnerable to volatility. Food prices have improved compared to last year, but weather shocks and global supply disruptions still pose risks heading into the winter months.

Monetary policy is at an inflection point. The Federal Reserve has maintained its restrictive stance through the summer but has begun signaling openness to a gradual easing cycle, possibly starting late this year or early next year, contingent on continued progress toward its inflation target. Financial markets expect one or two modest rate cuts before year-end, though Fed officials remain cautious about declaring victory too early.

In sum, the macroeconomic outlook as of September 2025 is one of gradual stabilization, but not without risks. Inflation is trending downward but at a slower pace, growth is moderating without collapsing, and policy is poised to shift from restraint to cautious support. The biggest challenges ahead lie in navigating this delicate balance—ensuring that disinflation continues without triggering a downturn, while managing structural shifts in labor, energy, and global trade that will define the next phase of the economy.

Note: This summary is based on data available as of early September 2025 and may be subject to revisions in future releases. With the September 2025 release, we have added additional categories (noted below) and increased the frequency of price observations on several existing categories. Given these changes, we present a comparison of the legacy categories (old) and sample size with the expanded categories and sample size (new). Since the impact is small, in this, and future reports, we use the expanded categories and sample size in calculation of the OpenBrand CPI-DPG and CPI groups.

For questions about the report, please contact Ralph McLaughlin at ralph@openbrand.com 

For press inquiries, please contact press@openbrand.com 

The OpenBrand CPI of Durable and Personal Goods is constructed using a data-driven methodology that ensures accuracy, timeliness, and transparency in measuring price trends for both short and long-lasting consumer products. The methodology consists of the following key components:

1. Data Collection

• Real-Time Price Tracking: Prices are sourced daily from online marketplaces, retail websites, and brick-and-mortar store listings.
• Retailer & Manufacturer Data: Aggregates pricing information from major retailers, direct-to-consumer brands, and wholesale suppliers into broader consumer categories.
• Temporal Coverage: Captures price variations over time, including daily discounts and price promotions

2. Product Selection & Tracking

• Durable and Personal Goods Focus: The index includes products with an expected lifespan of three years or more, such as home appliances, consumer electronics, and tools, as well as personal care products with a shorter lifespan, such as hair and skin care products, vitamins, over-the-counter medications, and oral care products. 
• Brand & Model Tracking: Individual brands and models are monitored to reflect pricing shifts within competitive product segments, including both permanent changes in listing price as well as temporary promotional pricing. 

3. Price Calculation, Adjustments, and Weighting

• Price Calculation: Tracks month-over-month and year-over-year price movements to measure price stability in the marketplace and take into account both longer-term changes in pricing (such as changes in manufacturer’s suggested retail price) as well as more short-term changes in pricing, such as promotional discounts and sales prices. 
• SKU-Removal Instead of Hedonic Adjustments: When a product (or SKU) becomes unavailable in the BLS goods basket, the BLS implements a SKU-replacement procedure whereby the next most similar product is used in its place, and a quality (hedonic) adjustment procedure is performed to get closer to an apples-to-apples price comparison. Since OpenBrand has data on nearly 100% of the SKUs pricing history in a given product category, we can simply remove that SKU from the basket and rely on price changes of the remaining SKUs in that basket. This eliminates the need for hedonic adjustment in the OpenBrand CPI basket.
• Weighting and Aggregation Method: A weighted geometric mean formula is used to minimize volatility and improve stability in price trend analysis at both the product grouping and category level. Instead of using sales-volume weights when aggregating the index, we take an alternative approach by using persistence-based weights for aggregation. Instead of more frequently purchased items getting more weight in the BLS’ CPI calculation, OpenBrand takes a more novel approach by weighting items with a more established price history in the market more heavily in our CPI calculation than items with a less established history.

4. Reporting & Updates

• High-Frequency Updates: Published freely on a monthly basis, with a subscription option for daily summaries across categories, sub-categories, and individual products.
• Comparative Benchmarks: We aggregate pricing as analogously as possible to traditional BLS CPI measures for benchmarking purposes.
• Transparency & Accessibility: Provides both open and paid data access for journalists, researchers, businesses, and policymakers.

By leveraging real-time data and advanced statistical techniques, the OpenBrand CPI offers an accurate and dynamic measure of pricing trends, helping businesses and consumers make informed decisions in an evolving economic landscape.

Price growth for consumer durables and personal goods decelerated sharply on a monthly basis in July, with a month-over-month increase of +0.17% compared to a revised monthly +0.75% increase in June. The deceleration of price growth was primarily driven by slower price growth of appliances, communication, personal care, and recreation products, as well as a nearly 200 basis point increase in discount activity from 21.2% in July to 23.1% in July.

Some of the price growth deceleration in July was likely due to an increase in discounting activity, driven in part by Amazon’s Prime Week and the announcement of similar promotional events by BestBuy.com, Target.com, and Walmart.com. While Amazon is the host of Prime Week, it turns out that Walmart.com actually stole the show this year in terms of both discount frequency compared to its competitors as well as differential between itself during the rest of the month. Nearly 60% of all products on Walmart.com were discounted during Prime Week, leading the pack. Amazon.com finished second at 46.2%, followed by BestBuy.com at 29.1%, and Target.com with 2.66%.

What’s more, Walmart.com’s discount frequency rate was nearly three times higher during Prime Week compared to the rest of the month (59.6% vs. 21.5%). BestBuy.com was second with about a 9 percentage point difference, followed by Amazon with a 6.2 percentage point difference, and last was Target.com with actually showed higher discount rates in the rest of the month than during Prime Week.

A slightly different story emerges when we look at the magnitude of discounts offered by these retailers during the month of July. Walmart.com again led the pack with a typical discount of 26.8% on discounted items. Amazon.com was second with 21.2%, followed BestBuy.com with a typical discount of 20.1%, and last was Target at 19.2%. The interesting takeaway is that only Amazon.com actually showed a higher discount magnitude during Prime Week compared to the other days of the month, while the other three retailers surprisingly showed higher discounts outside of Prime Week in July.

• Key CPI Takeaways for June 2025 & Macroeconomic Outlook
• Product Group Highlights
  • Appliances
  • Communication
  • Home Improvement
  • Personal Care
  • Recreation
• CPI 2025 Forecast: Macroeconomic Summary
• Methodology

Overall OpenBrand Consumer Price Index Movement: The OpenBrand CPI of Durable and Personal Goods recorded a +0.17% monthly change in July, notching the eighth consecutive month-over-month increase and 13th of the last 14th. While prices continue to grow, the magnitude of price change decelerated significantly from June’s large increase of +0.75%.

Discount Trends: July brought a relatively sharp increase in discount activity to the durables and personal goods sector, with frequencies rising month-over-month to 23.1% of all durable and personal goods from 21.2% in the month prior. This was the highest reading since December and the second largest in three years. Despite the uptick in discount frequency in July, the typical magnitude remained relatively unchanged at 20.2%. This suggests the flurry of discounting activity brought on by Amazon’s Prime Week and their competitors primarily brought breadth – but not depth – to pricing discounts of durable and personal goods.

Product Group Price Trends: Three product groups – Appliances, Communications, and Recreation – all experienced sharp decreases in the rate of price growth from the prior month, while Home Improvement was flat. Personal Care products exhibited relatively strong negative growth.

• Appliance Group (+0.21%)
• Communication Group (+0.16%)
• Home Improvement Group (+0.45%)
• Personal Care Group (-0.32%)
• Recreation Group (+0.23%)

See the full breakdown of product groupings. 

CPI: Appliances

Prices for appliances increased by +0.21% on a month-over-month basis in July, slowing from a revised decrease of +0.31% in the month prior. The deceleration in price growth was at least partially driven by an increase in the frequency of discounts (43.7% from 42.6% the month prior), while the typical discount magnitude increased slightly to 16.7% from 16.5% the month prior.

CPI: Communication

Prices of communication devices, including phones, tablets, computers, and printers, rose on a month-over-month basis to +0.16%, down sharply from a revised +1.29% the month prior. Both the frequency and magnitude of discounts increased in July, from 10.00% to 11.90% and 19.9% to 20.5%, respectively. This is the third consecutive month of both increasing discount frequencies and magnitudes in the communications group.

CPI: Home Improvement

The index for home improvement goods was essentially flat on a month-over-month basis and grew by +0.45% (down from +0.46% the month prior), showing 27 consecutive month-over-month flat or monthly increases. The increase in prices comes amidst slight increases in both the frequency (rising to 12.7% from 12.6%) and magnitude (rising to 18.5% from 17.8%). This is the second consecutive month in which discounting activity – in both frequency and magnitude – increased over the month prior.

CPI: Personal Care

Prices of personal care products decreased sharply on a monthly basis in July by -0.32%, down from +0.00% in June. This decrease comes amidst changes in the frequency of discounts increasing a full 420 basis points, growing to 26.1% in July from 21.9% in June. The typical discount magnitude increased by 50 basis points. from 21.2% in June to 21.7% in July.

CPI: Recreation

The rate of price growth of recreational products, including TVs, headphones, and speaker systems, decreased sharply to +0.23% on a month-over-month basis in July, down from a revised +1.80% in June. Some of this sharp decrease in the pace of price growth is at least partially due to an increase in the frequency of discounts – to 20.8% in July from 18.7% in June – and a moderate increase in the average magnitude of discounts – to 23.8% from 22.1% over the same time period.

As of August 2025, the U.S. economy stands at a pivotal moment—balancing between a broader cooling inflationary cycle with newly imposed tariffs by the Trump Administration.

Signs of cooling in rate-sensitive parts of the economy are increasingly visible. Residential investment remains subdued, with affordability challenges still weighing on home sales despite a modest drop in mortgage rates. Commercial real estate, especially office space, continues to struggle with vacancy and refinancing risk. Business capital spending has softened, particularly among smaller firms facing tighter lending standards.

Globally, the economic outlook remains mixed. Europe is facing stagnant growth, while China is managing a sluggish recovery amid weak consumer demand and ongoing property sector woes. Trade volumes are gradually recovering, but new patterns of supply chain diversification and industrial realignment are creating longer-term structural shifts. The U.S. is benefitting from “friendshoring” and renewed interest in domestic production, but the transition carries upfront costs that feed into prices and investment uncertainty.

Looking forward, the Federal Reserve is expected to begin lowering interest rates cautiously, with the first cut likely coming at the end of this quarter if inflation continues to trend downward. Given the transient nature of tariffs impacting price growth, we suspect prices may revert to a more downward trend. However, policymakers remain concerned about the risk of cutting too early and reigniting inflation, especially given the ongoing strength in consumer demand and wage growth. Financial markets have largely priced in a gradual easing cycle, though volatility remains a risk if inflation data surprises to the upside.

In summary, the U.S. economy in August 2025 is in a transitional phase—shifting from post-pandemic overheating to a slower, more sustainable path. Inflation may come back down after some acceleration in June, the result of the transient and stepwise impact of recently implemented tariffs. Economic growth is moderating, but not collapsing. And policy is shifting from restraint to gradual accommodation. The challenge for the rest of the year will be to maintain this delicate balance, ensuring that disinflation continues without tipping the economy into contraction. In sum, the foundation is solid, but the path forward could prove to be tricky from a monetary perspective.

Note: This summary is based on data available as of early August 2025 and may be subject to revisions in future releases.

For questions about the report, please contact Ralph McLaughlin at ralph@openbrand.com 

For press inquiries, please contact press@openbrand.com 

The OpenBrand CPI of Durable and Personal Goods is constructed using a data-driven methodology that ensures accuracy, timeliness, and transparency in measuring price trends for both short and long-lasting consumer products. The methodology consists of the following key components:

1. Data Collection

• Real-Time Price Tracking: Prices are sourced daily from online marketplaces, retail websites, and brick-and-mortar store listings.
• Retailer & Manufacturer Data: Aggregates pricing information from major retailers, direct-to-consumer brands, and wholesale suppliers into broader consumer categories.
• Temporal Coverage: Captures price variations over time, including daily discounts and price promotions

2. Product Selection & Tracking

• Durable and Personal Goods Focus: The index includes products with an expected lifespan of three years or more, such as home appliances, consumer electronics, and tools, as well as personal care products with a shorter lifespan, such as hair and skin care products, vitamins, over-the-counter medications, and oral care products. 
• Brand & Model Tracking: Individual brands and models are monitored to reflect pricing shifts within competitive product segments, including both permanent changes in listing price as well as temporary promotional pricing.

3. Price Calculation, Adjustments, and Weighting

• Price Calculation: Tracks month-over-month and year-over-year price movements to measure price stability in the marketplace and take into account both longer-term changes in pricing (such as changes in manufacturer’s suggested retail price) as well as more short-term changes in pricing, such as promotional discounts and sales prices. 
• SKU-Removal Instead of Hedonic Adjustments: When a product (or SKU) becomes unavailable in the BLS goods basket, the BLS implements a SKU-replacement procedure whereby the next most similar product is used in its place, and a quality (hedonic) adjustment procedure is performed to get closer to an apples-to-apples price comparison. Since OpenBrand has data on nearly 100% of the SKUs pricing history in a given product category, we can simply remove that SKU from the basket and rely on price changes of the remaining SKUs in that basket. This eliminates the need for hedonic adjustment in the OpenBrand CPI basket.
• Weighting and Aggregation Method: A weighted geometric mean formula is used to minimize volatility and improve stability in price trend analysis at both the product grouping and category level. Instead of using sales-volume weights when aggregating the index, we take an alternative approach by using persistence-based weights for aggregation. Instead of more frequently purchased items getting more weight in the BLS’ CPI calculation, OpenBrand takes a more novel approach by weighting items with a more established price history in the market more heavily in our CPI calculation than items with a less established history.

4. Reporting & Updates

• High-Frequency Updates: Published freely on a monthly basis, with a subscription option for daily summaries across categories, sub-categories, and individual products.
• Comparative Benchmarks: We aggregate pricing as analogously as possible to traditional BLS CPI measures for benchmarking purposes.
• Transparency & Accessibility: Provides both open and paid data access for journalists, researchers, businesses, and policymakers.

By leveraging real-time data and advanced statistical techniques, the OpenBrand CPI offers an accurate and dynamic measure of pricing trends, helping businesses and consumers make informed decisions in an evolving economic landscape.