Consumer Price Index: Durable and Personal Goods | June 2025

Price growth for consumer durables and personal goods once again accelerated on a monthly basis in June, with a month-over-month increase of 0.76% compared to a revised monthly 0.48% increase in May. Price growth was driven primarily by acceleration of communication, personal care, and recreation products. Across the largest moving categories in June 2025, price growth acceleration was concentrated among hair dryers, headphones, mowers, printers, and printer ink, with monthly increases of between +0.6% and 2.0%.

• Key CPI Takeaways for June 2025 & Macroeconomic Outlook
• Product Group Highlights
  • Appliances
  • Communication
  • Home Improvement
  • Personal Care
  • Recreation
• CPI 2025 Forecast: Macroeconomic Summary
• Methodology

Now that the first half of 2025 is behind us, an important question to ask is: which product categories have seen the largest price increases since the beginning of the year? Simply put, the largest increases have been among consumer electronics and appliances, with the top 10 categories in price growth showing a net annual increase of between 4.2% and 2.6%

Consumer tech and kitchen gear saw the sharpest price jumps in the first half of 2025.

• Sound bars led with a 4.2% increase, followed by headphones (3.8%) and over-the-range microwaves (3.7%).

• Home office essentials weren’t far behind—monitors, printers, and ink rose between 3.1%–3.5%, signaling ongoing demand for hybrid work setups.

• Hair dryers and TVs ticked up 3.0%, while toner and laundry appliances saw more modest hikes of 2.7% and 2.6%.

Across the board, electronics and appliances continue to feel inflationary pressure, with entertainment and work-from-home gear leading the charge.

Overall OpenBrand Consumer Price Index Movement: The OpenBrand CPI of Durable and Personal Goods recorded a +0.76% monthly change in June, notching the seventh consecutive month-over-month increase and 12th of the last 13th, as retailers continue passing along some of the costs of their import tariffs to consumers. The magnitude of price change also accelerated in June, with yet another considerable increase over the prior month’s increase of +0.48%.

Discount Trends: June again brought very slight changes to the frequency and magnitude of discounts to the durables and personal goods sector, with frequencies rising month-over-month to 21.2% of all durable and personal goods from 20.5% in the month prior, and the typical magnitude remaining unchanged at 19.5%. How is it possible that prices could rise while the frequency of discounts increases? Simply put, retailers are likely using psychological warfare to soften the blow of price increases by increasing the list price of products while discounting more of them to a shelf price that is higher than prior months. 

Product Group Price Trends: Three product groups – Communications, Personal Care, and Recreation – all experienced sharp increases in price growth from the prior month, while two groups –  Appliances and Home Improvement – experienced positive but slowing rates of price growth.

• Appliance Group (+0.29%)
• Communication Group (+0.86%)
• Home Improvement Group (+0.39%)
• Personal Care Group (+0.58%)
• Recreation Group (+1.51%)

See the full breakdown of product groupings. 

CPI: Appliances

Prices for appliances increased by +0.29% on a month-over-month basis in June, slowing from a revised decrease of 0.77% in the month prior. The deceleration in price growth was at least partially driven by an increase in the frequency of discounts (42.6% from 40.6% the month prior), while the typical discount magnitude remained unchanged at 16.5% The trend remains relatively stable at between 38% and 43% for frequencies, and mid-teens for discounts, since May 2024.

CPI: Communication

Prices of communication devices, including phones, tablets, computers, and printers, rose on a month-over-month basis to 0.86%, up from a revised 0.25% the month prior. While both the frequency and magnitude of discounts increased in June, from 7.74% to 9.84% and 19.0% to 19.9%, respectively, net prices are still rising at least in part because sellers are also raising their list prices while maintaining, and even expanding, existing discounts to take the sting out of rising prices.

CPI: Home Improvement

The index for home improvement goods decelerated to +0.39% on a month-over-month basis, showing 26 consecutive month-over-month flat or monthly increases but down from +0.78% May. The increase in prices comes amidst increases in both the frequency (rising to 12.7% from 11.0%) and magnitude (rising to 17.9% from 17.0%), suggesting that retailers of home improvement goods continue to increase their list prices while maintaining and even increasing promotional discounts in order to help ease the sting of rising prices.

CPI: Personal Care

Prices of personal care products increased sharply again on a monthly basis in June 2025 by +0.58%, up from +0.19% in May. This increase comes during changes in both the frequency and magnitude of discounts, with the frequency increasing to 21.9% from 19.4%, while the typical discount magnitude decreased from 21.5% in May to 21.2% in June.

CPI: Recreation

Prices of recreational products, including TVs, headphones, and speaker systems, increased sharply by +1.77% on a month-over-month basis in June, up from a revised +0.42% in May. This is the 12th increase over the past 13 months. Some of this sharp increase in the pace of price growth is at least partially due to a sharp decrease in the frequency of discounts – to 18.9% in June from 23.6% in May – and a slight decrease in the average magnitude of discounts – to 22.2% from 23.4% over the same time period. 

As of mid-2025, global price growth continues to moderate from the post-pandemic highs seen in 2022 and 2023. However, inflation remains uneven across sectors and regions due to lingering supply-side constraints, tariff-driven cost pressures, and resilient demand in key service industries. Policymakers are now navigating a narrow path: ensuring inflation continues to fall without triggering a sharp economic slowdown.

Inflation in most advanced economies has eased to around 2–3%, down from double-digit peaks. Emerging markets have seen more variation, with some countries experiencing renewed inflation due to currency depreciation and energy price volatility. In the United States, headline inflation ticked up slightly in Q2 2025, driven by new tariffs on goods from China and Mexico, as well as seasonal increases in travel, energy, and food prices. Core inflation, however, is trending downward, suggesting a gradual return to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, as the influence of pandemic-era bottlenecks wanes.

While our data shows inflation for durable and personal goods accelerated again in June, our outlook for July is more modest, especially given last week’s announcement (Monday, July 7) that the reciprocal tariff deadline – originally planned for July 9th – would be extended to August 1st. 

Also in the announcement, President Trump set out plans for a 40% tariff on goods from Myanmar and Laos, a 36% tariff on goods from Thailand and Cambodia, a 35% tariff on goods from Serbia and Bangladesh, a 32% tariff on Indonesia, a 30% tariff on goods from South Africa and a 25% tariff on goods from Japan, Malaysia, South Korea, and Tunisia. If these tariffs are indeed implement on August 1st, we could see inflation continue to rise well into 2025Q3 and beyond.

Key Drivers of Price Growth in 2025 H2

New tariffs imposed in early 2025, especially by the U.S., are adding to the cost of durable goods, electronics, and construction materials. Firms are passing some of these costs to consumers. Labor markets remain tight in many economies, especially in healthcare, education, and hospitality, contributing to persistent services inflation. Oil prices rose modestly due to production cuts by major exporters and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. Food prices have been volatile due to extreme weather events disrupting supply chains. Increased use of AI and automation in logistics, retail, and manufacturing is helping to mitigate some inflationary pressures, particularly in goods-producing sectors.

Sector Highlights

Consumer Durables: Prices are rising modestly due to tariffs and global shipping costs, especially among products that did not qualify for the April 2025 tariff exemptions, which covered products like smartphones, computers, laptops, monitors, memory cards, semiconductor devices, modems, routers, and flat panel displays 

Housing: The housing market is poised to have one of the slowest non-recessionary years in recent history. Higher mortgage rates are dampening demand, but limited inventory is keeping prices elevated in some urban areas.

Healthcare and Education: These sectors continue to see above-average inflation due to labor intensity and limited productivity gains.

Transportation: Airline and automotive prices are elevated compared to last year, driven by fuel costs and supply chain rebuilding.

Monetary Policy Outlook

Central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, have paused interest rate hikes but remain cautious. Markets anticipate potential rate cuts in late 2025 or early 2026, contingent on further inflation moderation and stable labor markets. Policymakers are wary of cutting too soon and reigniting inflationary pressures, especially in politically sensitive sectors like housing and food.

How Will the One Big Beautiful Bill Affect the U.S. Economy and Inflation?

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), signed into law on July 4, 2025, introduces significant changes to U.S. fiscal policy, with immediate and long-term implications for the economy and inflation.

In the near term, the OBBBA is expected to provide a modest boost to economic growth. Analyses suggest an average GDP increase of 0.2 to 0.4 percentage points annually through 2027, primarily due to tax cuts and increased government spending . Proponents argue that these measures will enhance consumer spending and business investment. However, critics caution that the benefits may be unevenly distributed and could exacerbate income inequality .

Over the next decade, the OBBBA is projected to significantly increase the federal deficit. The Congressional Budget Office estimates an addition of $2.8 trillion to the national debt by 2034 . 

These fiscal changes may lead to higher interest rates and reduced private investment, potentially slowing long-term economic growth .

The substantial increase in government spending and tax cuts could exert upward pressure on inflation. Additionally, the weakening of the U.S. dollar and potential reluctance from foreign investors to purchase U.S. debt could further complicate monetary policy .

The OBBBA rolls back several clean energy initiatives, including tax credits for renewable energy and electric vehicles. These changes could increase household energy costs and result in significant job losses in the clean energy sector.

The legislation introduces work requirements for Medicaid and SNAP recipients and reduces funding for these programs. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that approximately 10.9 million Americans could lose health insurance coverage as a result. Such changes could lead to increased medical debt and adverse health outcomes, particularly among low-income populations.

While the One Big Beautiful Bill Act aims to stimulate economic growth through tax cuts and increased spending, it raises concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability, inflation, and the well-being of vulnerable populations. The legislation’s impact on clean energy initiatives and social programs may have lasting effects on the U.S. economy and public health, but could spur economic growth in the short-run through new and extended tax cuts to middle and higher-income workers.

Note: This summary is based on data available as of early July 2025 and may be subject to revisions in future releases.

For questions about the report, please contact Ralph McLaughlin at ralph@openbrand.com 

For press inquiries, please contact press@openbrand.com 

The OpenBrand CPI of Durable and Personal Goods is constructed using a data-driven methodology that ensures accuracy, timeliness, and transparency in measuring price trends for both short and long-lasting consumer products. The methodology consists of the following key components:

1. Data Collection

• Real-Time Price Tracking: Prices are sourced daily from online marketplaces, retail websites, and brick-and-mortar store listings.
• Retailer & Manufacturer Data: Aggregates pricing information from major retailers, direct-to-consumer brands, and wholesale suppliers into broader consumer categories.
• Temporal Coverage: Captures price variations over time, including daily discounts and price promotions

2. Product Selection & Tracking

• Durable and Personal Goods Focus: The index includes products with an expected lifespan of three years or more, such as home appliances, consumer electronics, and tools, as well as personal care products with a shorter lifespan, such as hair and skin care products, vitamins, over-the-counter medications, and oral care products. 
• Brand & Model Tracking: Individual brands and models are monitored to reflect pricing shifts within competitive product segments, including both permanent changes in listing price as well as temporary promotional pricing.

3. Price Calculation, Adjustments, and Weighting

• Price Calculation: Tracks month-over-month and year-over-year price movements to measure price stability in the marketplace and take into account both longer-term changes in pricing (such as changes in manufacturer’s suggested retail price) as well as more short-term changes in pricing, such as promotional discounts and sales prices. 
• SKU-Removal Instead of Hedonic Adjustments: When a product (or SKU) becomes unavailable in the BLS goods basket, the BLS implements a SKU-replacement procedure whereby the next most similar product is used in its place, and a quality (hedonic) adjustment procedure is performed to get closer to an apples-to-apples price comparison. Since OpenBrand has data on nearly 100% of the SKUs pricing history in a given product category, we can simply remove that SKU from the basket and rely on price changes of the remaining SKUs in that basket. This eliminates the need for hedonic adjustment in the OpenBrand CPI basket.
• Weighting and Aggregation Method: A weighted geometric mean formula is used to minimize volatility and improve stability in price trend analysis at both the product grouping and category level. Instead of using sales-volume weights when aggregating the index, we take an alternative approach by using persistence-based weights for aggregation. Instead of more frequently purchased items getting more weight in the BLS’ CPI calculation, OpenBrand takes a more novel approach by weighting items with a more established price history in the market more heavily in our CPI calculation than items with a less established history.

4. Reporting & Updates

• High-Frequency Updates: Published freely on a monthly basis, with a subscription option for daily summaries across categories, sub-categories, and individual products.
• Comparative Benchmarks: We aggregate pricing as analogously as possible to traditional BLS CPI measures for benchmarking purposes.
• Transparency & Accessibility: Provides both open and paid data access for journalists, researchers, businesses, and policymakers.

By leveraging real-time data and advanced statistical techniques, the OpenBrand CPI offers an accurate and dynamic measure of pricing trends, helping businesses and consumers make informed decisions in an evolving economic landscape.