Consumer Price Index: Durable and Personal Goods | November 2025

In November, price growth for consumer durables and personal goods decreased for the first time in a year, with a month-over-month decrease of -0.11%. This is down sharply from a revised monthly +0.21% increase in October. Prices of all product groups fell in November with the exception of the Home Improvement product group. What’s more, price growth was already negative before Black Friday deals hit on November 28th, with a month-over-month decrease in prices of -0.05% for the month-to-date prior to Black Friday. In addition, November brought the highest discount magnitude since January 2024.

However, when it comes to Black Friday weekend (we define it as the Friday, Saturday, and Sunday after Thanksgiving) 2025 also brought the greatest frequency of product discounts on a Black Friday weekend in the post-COVID era with 42.2% of products coming with a discount. This surpass the prior post-COVID high of 38.0% seen in 2022 and last year’s 34.0%.

• Key CPI Takeaways for November 2025 & Macroeconomic Outlook
• Product Group Highlights
  • Appliances
  • Communication
  • Home Improvement
  • Personal Care
  • Recreation
• CPI 2025 Forecast: Macroeconomic Summary
• Methodology

Overall OpenBrand Consumer Price Index Movement: The OpenBrand CPI of Durable and Personal Goods recorded a -0.11% monthly change in November, the first month-over-month decrease in 2025. The month-over-month slowdown in the pace of price growth was only the fourth slowdown of the calendar year.

Discount Trends: November brought an increase in discount activity to the durables and personal goods sector, with frequencies climbing month-over-month to 24.8% of all durable and personal goods from 24.3% in the month prior. The typical magnitude increased slightly to 20.9%, recording the highest magnitude in 2025 so far, and up from 20.6% the month prior. All product groups except the Communications Group experienced the highest discount magnitude for 2025 thus far.

Product Group Price Trends: All product groups except the personal care group experienced a slowdown in the rate of growth from the month prior, with prices of all groups except Home Improvement declining month-over-month. The group summary is as follows:

• Appliance Group (-0.68%)
• Communication Group (-0.03%)
• Home Improvement Group (+0.51%)
• Personal Care Group (-0.21%)
• Recreation Group (-0.16%)

See the full breakdown of product groupings. 

CPI: Appliances

Prices for appliances decreased sharply on a month-over-month basis in November to -0.68%, falling from a revised -0.19% in the month prior. The negative price growth was at least partially driven by the typical discount magnitude increasing to 17.5% – the highest month so far this year- from 17.1%, while the frequency of discounts decreased to 42.1% from 42.7% the month prior).

CPI: Communication

Prices of communication devices, including phones, tablets, computers, and printers, fell on a month-over-month basis to -0.03.%, down sharply again from a revised +0.63% the month prior. The frequency and magnitude of discounts were mixed in November, moving from 13.7% to 19.1% and 21.2% to 20.3% from October to November, respectively. The sharp decrease in prices of communication devices most likely was led by the significant increase in frequency of discounts, which rose this month by over 5 percentage points compared to the month prior & is also the highest frequency of discounts by quite a bit for 2025 so far.

CPI: Home Improvement

Prices for home improvement goods increased by +0.51% on a month-over-month basis in November, slowing from a revised +0.52% in the month prior, showing 32 consecutive month-over-month flat or monthly increases.  The deceleration in price growth was at least partially driven by an decrease in the frequency of discounts (12.2% from 13.8% the month prior), while the typical discount magnitude grew  to 18.7% – the highest for this year thus far – from 18.3%.

CPI: Personal Care

Prices of personal care products fell on a monthly basis in November by -0.21%.  Some of this decrease may be due to an increase in the magnitude of price discounts (rising from 21.7% in October to 22.5% in November – recording the highest magnitude of discounts for 2025 so far) in conjunction with the frequency of discounts remaining relatively flat (falling only slightly from 22.8% in October to 22.6% in November).

CPI: Recreation

The rate of price growth of recreational products, including TVs, headphones, and speaker systems, decreased to -0.16% on a month-over-month basis in November, down sharply from a revised +0.48% in October. Some of this decrease in the pace of price growth is at least partially due to a decrease in the frequency of discounts – down to 27.9% in November from 28.4% in October – but an increase in the average magnitude of discounts – up to 25.4% from 24.8% over the same time period – showcasing the highest magnitude of discounts thus far in 2025.

As December 2025 begins, the U.S. economy is slowing but not stalling, and the question dominating financial markets is whether the Federal Reserve will deliver its third interest-rate cut this year at the December 10 FOMC meeting. The economy has made steady—though uneven—progress on inflation throughout the year, and the Fed now faces a delicate balance between sustaining disinflation and preventing an overly sharp deceleration in growth.

Inflation is continuing its gradual descent. Headline consumer price growth is now firmly in the low 3% range year over year, down from the elevated levels seen earlier in the tightening cycle. Core inflation is cooling, though at a slower pace, weighed down by persistent pressures in services. Shelter costs remain a particular challenge: while new-lease rent growth has softened considerably, the lagged impact of earlier increases is still flowing through the index. Health care, insurance, and other labor-intensive service categories are also contributing to stickiness. Yet the overall trend remains encouraging, and for the first time in many months, policymakers can observe a pattern of month-after-month improvement.

The labor market is showing clearer signs of cooling as well. Hiring has slowed to a modest pace, unemployment is hovering just over 4%, and wage growth—once a key source of inflationary pressure—has eased back toward a more sustainable range. Importantly, labor market softness is not yet translating into a collapse in job opportunities or a surge in layoffs. Instead, it points to an economy moving closer to balance: still expanding, but losing momentum as businesses grow more cautious.

Consumer spending remains surprisingly resilient, supported by positive real wage growth and continued demand for services heading into the holiday season. But household budgets are stretched, particularly among lower-income consumers. High interest rates on mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards continue to act as a drag, and delinquencies are rising from historically low levels. The result is a consumer sector that is still driving the expansion—but doing so at a slower and more fragile pace.

Business investment has softened, especially in interest-sensitive sectors, while global conditions continue to limit export growth. Manufacturing activity is subdued, and companies are increasingly focused on efficiency rather than expansion. These dynamics are consistent with an economy that remains fundamentally sound but increasingly vulnerable to weaker demand.

All of this places the Federal Reserve in a difficult but not impossible position as it approaches its December 10 decision. On one hand, the Fed has long maintained that it would need “greater confidence” that inflation is on a durable path back to 2% before cutting rates. Recent data has moved in the right direction, but not overwhelmingly so. On the other hand, keeping rates at restrictive levels risks tightening financial conditions too much at a moment when the economy is already slowing and the labor market is gradually loosening.

Market expectations ahead of the meeting reflect this tension. Investors are split: some anticipate that the Fed will use December to signal the beginning of a gradual normalization process with a modest quarter-point cut. Others expect the Fed to wait until early 2026, particularly if service-sector inflation remains sticky or labor market conditions strengthen unexpectedly. The Fed itself has remained cautious in its public communications, emphasizing data dependence and maintaining flexibility.

Ultimately, the likelihood of a December rate cut hinges on the final readings of inflation and labor market conditions released in the days leading up to the meeting. If both show continued cooling, the Fed may judge that the balance of risks has shifted sufficiently toward supporting growth. If not, policymakers may prefer to hold rates steady and begin easing early in the new year.

In short, the December 2025 outlook reflects an economy moving through the late stages of disinflation, with growth softening and monetary policy nearing an inflection point. Whether another cut arrives on December 10 or a few months later, the direction of policy is now clearly turning—and the next phase of the economic cycle will depend on how smoothly that transition unfolds.

Note: This summary is based on data available as of early December 2025 and may be subject to revisions in future releases.

For questions about the report, please contact Ralph McLaughlin at ralph@openbrand.com 

For press inquiries, please contact press@openbrand.com 

The OpenBrand CPI of Durable and Personal Goods is constructed using a data-driven methodology that ensures accuracy, timeliness, and transparency in measuring price trends for both short and long-lasting consumer products. The methodology consists of the following key components:

1. Data Collection

• Real-Time Price Tracking: Prices are sourced daily from online marketplaces, retail websites, and brick-and-mortar store listings.
• Retailer & Manufacturer Data: Aggregates pricing information from major retailers, direct-to-consumer brands, and wholesale suppliers into broader consumer categories.
• Temporal Coverage: Captures price variations over time, including daily discounts and price promotions

2. Product Selection & Tracking

• Durable and Personal Goods Focus: The index includes products with an expected lifespan of three years or more, such as home appliances, consumer electronics, and tools, as well as personal care products with a shorter lifespan, such as hair and skin care products, vitamins, over-the-counter medications, and oral care products. 
• Brand & Model Tracking: Individual brands and models are monitored to reflect pricing shifts within competitive product segments, including both permanent changes in listing price as well as temporary promotional pricing. 

3. Price Calculation, Adjustments, and Weighting

• Price Calculation: Tracks month-over-month and year-over-year price movements to measure price stability in the marketplace and take into account both longer-term changes in pricing (such as changes in manufacturer’s suggested retail price) as well as more short-term changes in pricing, such as promotional discounts and sales prices. 
• SKU-Removal Instead of Hedonic Adjustments: When a product (or SKU) becomes unavailable in the BLS goods basket, the BLS implements a SKU-replacement procedure whereby the next most similar product is used in its place, and a quality (hedonic) adjustment procedure is performed to get closer to an apples-to-apples price comparison. Since OpenBrand has data on nearly 100% of the SKUs pricing history in a given product category, we can simply remove that SKU from the basket and rely on price changes of the remaining SKUs in that basket. This eliminates the need for hedonic adjustment in the OpenBrand CPI basket.
• Weighting and Aggregation Method: A weighted geometric mean formula is used to minimize volatility and improve stability in price trend analysis at both the product grouping and category level. Instead of using sales-volume weights when aggregating the index, we take an alternative approach by using persistence-based weights for aggregation. Instead of more frequently purchased items getting more weight in the BLS’ CPI calculation, OpenBrand takes a more novel approach by weighting items with a more established price history in the market more heavily in our CPI calculation than items with a less established history.

4. Reporting & Updates

• High-Frequency Updates: Published freely on a monthly basis, with a subscription option for daily summaries across categories, sub-categories, and individual products.
• Comparative Benchmarks: We aggregate pricing as analogously as possible to traditional BLS CPI measures for benchmarking purposes.
• Transparency & Accessibility: Provides both open and paid data access for journalists, researchers, businesses, and policymakers.

By leveraging real-time data and advanced statistical techniques, the OpenBrand CPI offers an accurate and dynamic measure of pricing trends, helping businesses and consumers make informed decisions in an evolving economic landscape.