Consumer Price Index: Durable and Personal Goods | October 2025

In October, price growth for consumer durables and personal goods decelerated for the first time in three months, with a month-over-month increase of +0.22% compared to a revised monthly +0.48% increase in September. Deceleration of price growth was observed across all of our price groups except communication devices, with prices of both appliances and personal goods seeing nominal price deflation in October. Amongst appliances, decreases were observed across most categories of products.

Amongst products in the appliance and personal care groups, we find a number of categories have been on a downward price growth trajectory over the past several months. For example, prices of hair dryers jumped 1.15% month-over-month in August, but slowed to 0.82% in September and fell by -1.27% in October. Similarly, laundry – including washers and dryers – grew by +0.90% in August, but fell by 0.48% in September and 0.86% in October. See chart below for select examples of other appliances and personal care products that experienced price declines last month.

• Key CPI Takeaways for October 2025 & Macroeconomic Outlook
• Product Group Highlights
  • Appliances
  • Communication
  • Home Improvement
  • Personal Care
  • Recreation
• CPI 2025 Forecast: Macroeconomic Summary
• Methodology

Overall OpenBrand Consumer Price Index Movement: The OpenBrand CPI of Durable and Personal Goods recorded a +0.22% monthly change in October, notching the eleventh consecutive month-over-month increase and 16th of the last 17th. The month-over-month slowdown in the pace of price growth was only the third slowdown of the calendar year.

Discount Trends: October brought mixed changes in discount activity to the durables and personal goods sector, with frequencies falling month-over-month to 24.6% of all durable and personal goods from 25.5% in the month prior.  The typical magnitude increased slightly to 20.4%, almost matching the highest recording since July 2024, and up from 20.0% the month prior. 

Product Group Price Trends: All product groups except the communications group experienced a slowdown in the rate of growth from the month prior, with prices of both appliances and personal care products actually declining month-over-month. The group summary is as follows:

• Appliance Group (-0.20%)
• Communication Group (+0.65%)
• Home Improvement Group (+0.49%)
• Personal Care Group (-0.33%)
• Recreation Group (+0.49%)

See the full breakdown of product groupings. 

CPI: Appliances

Prices for appliances decreased on a month-over-month basis in October to -0.20%, falling from a revised +0.01% in the month prior. The negative price growth was at least partially driven by the typical discount magnitude increasing slightly to 17.0% from 16.8%, while the frequency of discounts remained relatively unchanged (decreasing only slightly to 42.8% from 42.9% the month prior).

CPI: Communication

Prices of communication devices, including phones, tablets, computers, and printers, rose on a month-over-month basis to +0.65%, up sharply again from a revised +0.24% the month prior. The frequency and magnitude of discounts were mixed in October, moving from 16.8% to 14.1% and 20.0% to 20.2% from September to October, respectively. The sharp rise in prices of communication devices most likely was led by the significant decline in frequency of discounts, which fell again this month by almost 3 percentage points compared to the month prior.

CPI: Home Improvement

Prices for home improvement goods increased by +0.49% on a month-over-month basis in October, slowing from a revised +0.73% in the month prior, showing 31 consecutive month-over-month flat or monthly increases. The deceleration in price growth was at least partially driven by an increase in the frequency of discounts (13.9% from 13.4% the month prior), while the typical discount magnitude remained relatively flat, growing only slightly to 18.3% from 18.1%.

CPI: Personal Care

Prices of personal care products fell on a monthly basis in October 2025 by -0.33%. Some of this decrease may be due to a mild increase in the frequency and magnitude of price discounts, with the frequency of discounts remaining relatively flat, increasing only slightly from 24.1% in September to 24.3% in October, and the average discount magnitude growing from 20.7% to 21.6% over the same period.

CPI: Recreation

The rate of price growth of recreational products, including TVs, headphones, and speaker systems, decreased to +0.49% on a month-over-month basis in October, down sharply from a revised +0.79% in September. Some of this decrease in the pace of price growth is at least partially due to a decrease in the frequency of discounts – to 28.1% in October from 30.1% in September – but a slight increase in the average magnitude of discounts – to 24.7% from 24.4% over the same time period.

Entering November 2025, the U.S. economy finds itself navigating a fragile transition: growth remains positive, but with mounting headwinds — and among the most salient of those is the protracted federal government shutdown that began on October 1. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the shutdown could reduce real GDP growth in the fourth quarter by 1.0 to 2.0 percentage points, and an estimated $7 billion to $14 billion of output may be permanently lost depending on duration. 

The economic effects are being felt in several ways. First, with roughly 750,000 federal workers furloughed or working without pay, households directly tied to the public sector are already tightening spending. This has immediate implications for consumption — especially in parts of the economy that rely on federal payrolls, travel and lodging near Washington, D.C., and contract staffing on federal projects.

Second, the shutdown is delaying and disrupting government-provided services and payments, including food assistance (SNAP) benefits, permit and regulatory approvals, and contract payments to businesses. These disruptions dampen business investment and consumer confidence, adding another negative drag. 

On the inflation front, the shutdown creates a mixed picture. On one hand, the decline in federal employee pay and some delayed spending could exert mild downward pressure on aggregate demand and thus ease some inflationary pressure. On the other hand, disruptions to services, regulatory bottlenecks, and uncertainty may raise input costs and risk premium for firms, which could be passed on to consumers. Therefore, while headline inflation may remain fairly stable in the near term, underlying volatility and sectoral divergences are increasing.

The labor market remains relatively resilient — unemployment remains low by historical standards, and wage growth, though moderating, continues to run above pre-pandemic levels. But there are signs of emerging fragility: companies are issuing layoff notices, some sectors dependent on federal contracting are pausing hiring, and households with interrupted pay are delaying purchases. These factors suggest that while the labor market is not collapsing, its capacity to cushion the economy is weakening.

Monetary policy is likely to remain cautious and vigilant. The Federal Reserve will have to weigh the dual mandate of supporting the economy and labor market against the risk of inflation re-accelerating. The shutdown complicates the data picture, with statistical releases being delayed or impaired, which makes real-time assessment and policy calibration more difficult. 

Looking ahead, the key scenarios for November and beyond are clear: if the shutdown is resolved promptly — say within the first half of November — the economic drag may be limited, enabling a relatively normal holiday spending season and moderate growth into 2026. But if the impasse drags on into December, the risks of weaker consumption, delayed investment, worsening confidence, and a slower reopening rebound become much more pronounced.

In summary, for November 2025 the U.S. economy is balancing on a see saw. The federal government shutdown is a significant wildcard: it is dragging on growth, creating uncertainty, and complicating policy. While the fundamentals (consumer spending, employment) remain reasonably solid, the shutdown adds a non-trivial risk of a soft patch, or worse, if not resolved soon. Inflation may not spike, but the underlying resilience of households and businesses is being tested — and in this environment, the margin of safety is narrowing.

Note: This summary is based on data available as of early November 2025 and may be subject to revisions in future releases.

For questions about the report, please contact Ralph McLaughlin at ralph@openbrand.com 

For press inquiries, please contact press@openbrand.com 

The OpenBrand CPI of Durable and Personal Goods is constructed using a data-driven methodology that ensures accuracy, timeliness, and transparency in measuring price trends for both short and long-lasting consumer products. The methodology consists of the following key components:

1. Data Collection

• Real-Time Price Tracking: Prices are sourced daily from online marketplaces, retail websites, and brick-and-mortar store listings.
• Retailer & Manufacturer Data: Aggregates pricing information from major retailers, direct-to-consumer brands, and wholesale suppliers into broader consumer categories.
• Temporal Coverage: Captures price variations over time, including daily discounts and price promotions

2. Product Selection & Tracking

• Durable and Personal Goods Focus: The index includes products with an expected lifespan of three years or more, such as home appliances, consumer electronics, and tools, as well as personal care products with a shorter lifespan, such as hair and skin care products, vitamins, over-the-counter medications, and oral care products. 
• Brand & Model Tracking: Individual brands and models are monitored to reflect pricing shifts within competitive product segments, including both permanent changes in listing price as well as temporary promotional pricing. 

3. Price Calculation, Adjustments, and Weighting

• Price Calculation: Tracks month-over-month and year-over-year price movements to measure price stability in the marketplace and take into account both longer-term changes in pricing (such as changes in manufacturer’s suggested retail price) as well as more short-term changes in pricing, such as promotional discounts and sales prices. 
• SKU-Removal Instead of Hedonic Adjustments: When a product (or SKU) becomes unavailable in the BLS goods basket, the BLS implements a SKU-replacement procedure whereby the next most similar product is used in its place, and a quality (hedonic) adjustment procedure is performed to get closer to an apples-to-apples price comparison. Since OpenBrand has data on nearly 100% of the SKUs pricing history in a given product category, we can simply remove that SKU from the basket and rely on price changes of the remaining SKUs in that basket. This eliminates the need for hedonic adjustment in the OpenBrand CPI basket.
• Weighting and Aggregation Method: A weighted geometric mean formula is used to minimize volatility and improve stability in price trend analysis at both the product grouping and category level. Instead of using sales-volume weights when aggregating the index, we take an alternative approach by using persistence-based weights for aggregation. Instead of more frequently purchased items getting more weight in the BLS’ CPI calculation, OpenBrand takes a more novel approach by weighting items with a more established price history in the market more heavily in our CPI calculation than items with a less established history.

4. Reporting & Updates

• High-Frequency Updates: Published freely on a monthly basis, with a subscription option for daily summaries across categories, sub-categories, and individual products.
• Comparative Benchmarks: We aggregate pricing as analogously as possible to traditional BLS CPI measures for benchmarking purposes.
• Transparency & Accessibility: Provides both open and paid data access for journalists, researchers, businesses, and policymakers.

By leveraging real-time data and advanced statistical techniques, the OpenBrand CPI offers an accurate and dynamic measure of pricing trends, helping businesses and consumers make informed decisions in an evolving economic landscape.