Consumer Price Index: Durable and Personal Goods | December 2025

In December, price growth for consumer durables and personal goods accelerated after a significant slowdown in November, with a month-over-month increase of +0.24%. This is up from a revised monthly +0.04% increase in the month prior. While the rate of price growth accelerated in four out of our five product groups, the Appliance group continued to show significant price deceleration in December, with prices in that group now falling in three out of the past four months.

Now that 2025 is behind us, we can now conduct an annual look-back on price trends across our five product groups over the past 12 months. This is especially important in light of the new presidential administration’s trade policies that began in the early part of the year. Overall, the OpenBrand CPI-DPG grew by 3.0% between January and December, with relatively smooth growth throughout the year. Just after the year’s halfway point passed in July, aggregate prices were up by just 1.6%. The Communications group followed a similar trajectory, with 2.1% of the annual 4.0% growth occurring in the first half of the year. Home Improvement also followed a similar trend, with 2.8% of the annual 6.3% occurring by July.

However, the trend was noticeably different in both the Appliances and Personal Care groups, where price growth peaked earlier in the year followed by a decline. Appliances reached a peak cumulative price growth rate of 2.0% by August, before falling to a cumulative rate of 1.2% in December. Personal Care followed a similar path, peaking at 1.5% in September before ending the year with a cumulative growth rate of 1.0% in December.

• Key CPI Takeaways for December 2025 & Macroeconomic Outlook
• Product Group Highlights
  • Appliances
  • Communication
  • Home Improvement
  • Personal Care
  • Recreation
• CPI 2025 Forecast: Macroeconomic Summary
• Methodology

Overall OpenBrand Consumer Price Index Movement: The OpenBrand CPI of Durable and Personal Goods recorded a +0.24% monthly change in December, notching the thirteenth consecutive month-over-month increase and 18th of the last 19th months. The sharp price growth this month occurred alongside a decent increase in the frequency of discounts, suggesting that the rise was partially driven by an increase in non-discounted list prices.

Discount Trends: December brought an increase in discount activity to the durables and personal goods sector, with frequencies climbing month-over-month to 23.5% of all durable and personal goods from 19.2% in the month prior. The typical magnitude increased slightly to 20.9%, up only slightly from 20.7% the month prior. All product groups except the Communications Group & the Recreation Group experienced the highest discount magnitude for 2025, while the Communications Group experienced the highest discount frequency for 2025.

Product Group Price Trends:

All product groups except the Appliance group experienced both an uptick in the rate of growth from the month prior & an increase in prices month-over-month. The group summary is as follows:

• Appliance Group (-0.75%)  
• Communication Group (+0.76%)  
• Home Improvement Group (+0.86%)  
• Personal Care Group (+0.03%)  
• Recreation Group (+0.31%)  

See the full breakdown of product groupings. 

CPI: Appliances

Prices for appliances decreased on a month-over-month basis in December to -0.75%, falling from a revised +0.10% in the month prior. The negative price growth was at least partially driven by the typical discount magnitude increasing to 18.4% – the highest month this year- from 17.7%, while the frequency of discounts increased by almost 10 percentage points to 35.3% from 25.6% the month prior.

CPI: Communication

Prices of communication devices, including phones, tablets, computers, and printers, grew on a month-over-month basis to +0.76%, up slightly from a revised +0.06% the month prior. The frequency and magnitude of discounts were mixed in December. Frequency increased from 12.7% to 18.6%, while magnitude remained relatively flat, falling only in the slightest from 20.4% to 20.3% from November to December. The increase in prices of communication devices most likely was led by the significant increase in frequency of discounts, which rose this month by almost 6 percentage points compared to the month prior & boasts the highest frequency of discounts by quite a bit for 2025.

CPI: Home Improvement

Prices for home improvement goods increased by +0.86% on a month-over-month basis in December, growing from a revised +0.56% in the month prior, showing 33 consecutive month-over-month flat or monthly increases. The acceleration in price growth was at least partially driven by an increase in the magnitude of discounts (18.7% from 18.2% the month prior) – the highest for 2025, while the typical discount frequency remained flat at 10.2%.

CPI: Personal Care

Prices of personal care products grew on a monthly basis in December by +0.03%. Some of this increase may be due to an increase in both the magnitude (rising from 22.1% in November to 22.7% in December – recording the highest magnitude of discounts for 2025) & frequency of price discounts (rising from 22.9% in November to 23.4% in December).

CPI: Recreation

The rate of price growth of recreational products, including TVs, headphones, and speaker systems, increased to +0.31% on a month-over-month basis in December, up sharply from a revised -0.19% in November. Some of this increase in the pace of price growth is at least partially due to an increase in the frequency of discounts – up sharply to 29.7% in December from 24.8% in November – but a decrease in the average magnitude of discounts – down to 24.6% from 25.0% over the same time period.

As 2026 begins, U.S. consumers are likely to experience a welcome shift in the inflation story—one defined less by sticker shock and more by gradual stabilization. While prices are unlikely to fall broadly across the economy, the pace of price growth for durable and personal goods is expected to moderate meaningfully and, in some categories, edge modestly lower as lingering cost pressures from earlier trade policies and supply disruptions continue to unwind.

After several years of uneven inflation, the fundamentals for consumer goods pricing are improving. Supply chains are more normalized, inventories are healthier, and competitive pressures have returned in many retail categories. Importantly, the inflationary impulse from Trump-era tariffs—which raised costs on a wide range of imported consumer goods—has largely worked its way through the system. As contracts reset, sourcing adjusts, and global logistics remain relatively stable, the tariff pass-through that once pushed prices higher is fading into the background.

For consumers, this shift should be most noticeable in durable goods. Prices for big-ticket items such as appliances, furniture, electronics, and household equipment surged during and after the pandemic, only to cool sharply as demand softened and retailers worked through excess inventory. In 2026, those prices are expected to rise much more slowly than in prior years, and in some cases may drift lower in nominal terms as manufacturers and retailers compete more aggressively for value-conscious buyers. While prices are unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels, the era of rapid increases in durable goods appears firmly behind us.

Personal goods—including clothing, footwear, household supplies, and everyday consumer items—are also poised for a more favorable pricing environment. These categories tend to be highly competitive and sensitive to changes in input costs. As tariff effects fade and global production stabilizes, retailers are increasingly able to limit price increases or offer promotions without sacrificing margins. For many households, this means fewer surprise price hikes and more predictable spending on everyday items.

The broader economic backdrop supports this moderation. Economic growth in 2026 is expected to remain steady but unspectacular, which helps limit demand-driven inflation. At the same time, the labor market is cooling gradually, easing wage pressures that often filter into consumer prices. While wages are still rising, they are doing so at a pace that is more consistent with long-run price stability rather than inflation acceleration.

Interest rates are also likely to play a role in shaping consumer prices. As inflation continues to cool, the Federal Reserve is expected to move cautiously toward a less restrictive policy stance. Lower borrowing costs would help households manage debt and support spending, but not at a level that would reignite runaway demand. This balance—moderate growth without overheating—creates a favorable environment for stable pricing.

For consumers, the practical takeaway in 2026 is not a return to deflation, but a return to normalcy. Price growth for durable and personal goods is expected to slow to modest levels and, in select categories, flatten or decline slightly. The intense inflation pressures of the early 2020s are giving way to a period where shopping decisions feel less urgent and budgets become easier to plan.

In short, 2026 looks to be a year of inflation relief rather than inflation reversal for U.S. consumers. As the residual effects of tariffs and supply disruptions fade, goods prices should become more stable, competitive, and predictable—offering households a long-awaited sense that the worst of goods-driven inflation is finally in the rearview mirror.

Note: This summary is based on data available as of early January 2025 and may be subject to revisions in future releases.

For questions about the report, please contact Ralph McLaughlin at ralph@openbrand.com 

For press inquiries, please contact press@openbrand.com 

The OpenBrand CPI of Durable and Personal Goods is constructed using a data-driven methodology that ensures accuracy, timeliness, and transparency in measuring price trends for both short and long-lasting consumer products. The methodology consists of the following key components:

1. Data Collection

• Real-Time Price Tracking: Prices are sourced daily from online marketplaces, retail websites, and brick-and-mortar store listings.
• Retailer & Manufacturer Data: Aggregates pricing information from major retailers, direct-to-consumer brands, and wholesale suppliers into broader consumer categories.
• Temporal Coverage: Captures price variations over time, including daily discounts and price promotions

2. Product Selection & Tracking

• Durable and Personal Goods Focus: The index includes products with an expected lifespan of three years or more, such as home appliances, consumer electronics, and tools, as well as personal care products with a shorter lifespan, such as hair and skin care products, vitamins, over-the-counter medications, and oral care products. 
• Brand & Model Tracking: Individual brands and models are monitored to reflect pricing shifts within competitive product segments, including both permanent changes in listing price as well as temporary promotional pricing. 

3. Price Calculation, Adjustments, and Weighting

• Price Calculation: Tracks month-over-month and year-over-year price movements to measure price stability in the marketplace and take into account both longer-term changes in pricing (such as changes in manufacturer’s suggested retail price) as well as more short-term changes in pricing, such as promotional discounts and sales prices. 
• SKU-Removal Instead of Hedonic Adjustments: When a product (or SKU) becomes unavailable in the BLS goods basket, the BLS implements a SKU-replacement procedure whereby the next most similar product is used in its place, and a quality (hedonic) adjustment procedure is performed to get closer to an apples-to-apples price comparison. Since OpenBrand has data on nearly 100% of the SKUs pricing history in a given product category, we can simply remove that SKU from the basket and rely on price changes of the remaining SKUs in that basket. This eliminates the need for hedonic adjustment in the OpenBrand CPI basket.
• Weighting and Aggregation Method: A weighted geometric mean formula is used to minimize volatility and improve stability in price trend analysis at both the product grouping and category level. Instead of using sales-volume weights when aggregating the index, we take an alternative approach by using persistence-based weights for aggregation. Instead of more frequently purchased items getting more weight in the BLS’ CPI calculation, OpenBrand takes a more novel approach by weighting items with a more established price history in the market more heavily in our CPI calculation than items with a less established history.

4. Reporting & Updates

• High-Frequency Updates: Published freely on a monthly basis, with a subscription option for daily summaries across categories, sub-categories, and individual products.
• Comparative Benchmarks: We aggregate pricing as analogously as possible to traditional BLS CPI measures for benchmarking purposes.
• Transparency & Accessibility: Provides both open and paid data access for journalists, researchers, businesses, and policymakers.

By leveraging real-time data and advanced statistical techniques, the OpenBrand CPI offers an accurate and dynamic measure of pricing trends, helping businesses and consumers make informed decisions in an evolving economic landscape.