The Durables Brief Newsletter

Hi,

Welcome back! Q4 is here and so is our State of Durables Q4 video update.

This quarter, Greg and I get into where durables prices are headed, what Prime Big Deal Days told us (discounts got bigger, but prices didn't get lower) and our outlook for the holidays and 2027. Our base case is no recession, easing inflation, and a housing market that stays stuck. Demand hasn't disappeared, but it has shifted toward necessity and maintenance. 

Below, you'll find more detail behind those themes: our latest durables CPI read, a closer look at Prime Big Deal Days with our new shopper insights report, and category briefs from our analysts, including takeaways from Equip Expo.

Have a good Q4, and as you plan for 2027, make sure to check out our next webinar on Shopper Insights and how they can improve planning.

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Durables Market Trends

Cost Pressures Mount While Demand Splits

➔ Durables YTD inflation hits a post-Covid high: Prices are up 4.4% year-to-date, the fastest September YTD pace since at least 2020, driven by higher tariffs, elevated energy costs and an AI-driven memory chip shortage.

➔ Electronics are under the most pressure: Recreation prices are up 9.3% YTD, more than double any other group, led by media players (12.3%) and headphones (10.8%).

➔ Energy remains a key risk: Gulf oil flows are unlikely to recover before 2027, and gasoline drove more than half of September's 0.6% BLS CPI increase, which was up from 0.4% in August.
 
➔ Borrowing costs rise: The Fed raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% in September, adding pressure on financed household purchases.

➔ Demand is split: AI and business investment is supporting commercial and industrial categories, while cautious households prioritize needed replacements and promotions over upgrades.

SOURCE: OPENBRAND CPI AND MACROECONOMICS, SEPT 2026

Monthly Category Briefs

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Consumer Electronics:
iPhone Duo Is Scarce, Competition Is Abundant

Analysis by Scott Peterson, Senior Smartphones Analyst

The iPhone Duo sold out almost at once, and new Apple.com orders won't arrive until January 22, 2027. Apple hasn't discounted it, but its rivals have been busy.

In his analyst review, Scott tracks the weekly net price of the major foldables on BestBuy.com from August through late October: Apple's Duo, Samsung's Galaxy Z Fold8 and Fold8 Ultra, Motorola's razr fold, and Google's Pixel 11 Pro Fold.

Week by week, you'll see:

➔ Who moved first, and when: Samsung cut the Fold8 to $1,650 
➔ How carriers worked around Apple's $1,999 price, with offers up to $1,200 off
➔ What changed once the Duo was backordered into 2027, and the one brand that never moved its price

Why watch: If you're planning holiday smartphone promotions, Scott's week-by-week pricing timeline shows how rivals priced against a $1,999 phone that shoppers can't get until January.

SOURCE: SMARTPHONES, OPENBRAND TOTAL MARKET INSIGHTS

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OPE: Key Takeaways From Equip Expo 2026

Takeaways from Adrienne Spear, Senior OPE Analyst 

Equip Exposition returned to Louisville October 20 to 23 with a sold-out floor of nearly 1,100 exhibits. Here are 3 key takeaways from the show floor.

Battery went commercial. EGO Commercial brought eight new battery zero-turns, with sit-down models rated at up to 44 gas-equivalent horsepower. Honda debuted its first 58V commercial handheld lineup, priced from $339 to $699 tool-only for spring 2027, and STIHL introduced a new ALLPRO battery alongside the MSA 260, a battery saw positioned alongside its MS 261 gas model. Gas held its ground, as STIHL also launched its first gas stand-on mower and Briggs & Stratton introduced new Vanguard V-Twin engines. Manufacturers are widening gas and battery lineups side by side, with battery competition shifting toward platforms that can support an entire crew.

Autonomy came with price tags. Toro introduced the HAVEN AM75, and Husqvarna introduced its four-model, wire-free Automower iQ Series, both slated for 2027. RC Mowers unveiled the RECONX autonomous commercial stand-on, starting at $39,986 and positioned to let one operator run up to three machines. At the 2025 show, some robotic products were shown only privately and labeled "TBA." This year, more came with launch windows or pricing, though installation, service, and buyer economics remain open questions.

The education program focused on running the business. OPEI President and CEO Kris Kiser said landscapers came "to learn how to compete and thrive given uncertainty around interest rates, fuel costs, immigration policy, and many other key drivers of our industry." Sessions addressed labor shortages, rising costs, margins, and new revenue, and dealers got a new Dealer Boot Camp and the return of the Dealer Breakfast. Products followed the same themes, with compact stand-on mowers from Toro, Ferris, Exmark, and Hustler aimed at smaller crews, and new snow throwers from STIHL, its first, and Makita supporting year-round revenue.

What to watch: Read Equip Expo 2026 as a preview of the 2027 season. Most of the products shown ship between November 2026 and mid-2027, so next season will be the first real test of commercial battery zero-turns and priced autonomous mowers in the market. The open questions are price, serviceability, and dealer support, which is also where much of the show's education program focused.

SOURCE: OUTDOOR POWER EQUIPMENT, OPENBRAND TOTAL MARKET INSIGHTS

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Prime Big Deal Days:
What Shoppers, Prices, and Categories Told Us

Prime Big Deal Days looked like a strong promotion on the surface, but one number doesn't tell the whole story. We broke the event down three ways: what shoppers did, what happened to prices, and how each category played it.

➔ Prime Big Deal Days 2026 Shopper Insights Report: how durables shoppers planned, spent, and cross-shopped, including why 92% of Home Depot's cross-shoppers bought there

➔ Pricing deep dive: two-thirds of Amazon.com products hit their deepest discount of the prior 30 days, but only 2% reached their lowest net price. Here's why record discounts didn't add up to record-low prices.

➔ Category recap: discount depth, brand highlights, and Black Friday signals across TVs, notebooks, power tools, OPE, and more

What to watch: Whether higher net prices in PCs, phones, and TVs hold through Black Friday, or whether deeper discounts finally bring them down.

SOURCE: OPENBRAND MINDSHARE PRIME DAY 2026 SURVEY, COMPETITIVE INTELLIGENCE, CPI

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Major Appliances: 2027 Outlook | Price Up, Features First

Analysis by Bryce Tecson, Major Appliance Analyst 

With 2027 conditions likely resembling the 2026 landscape, manufacturers will lean on price increases and a more premium mix. Features are a big part of that story.

According to OpenBrand's Demand Intelligence data, which measures the incremental value consumers place on specific product attributes, features like auto detergent dispensers in laundry, induction cooktops in ranges, and external water and ice dispensers command a premium above $200 compared to a standard offering. That allows these models to extend into higher price tiers.

Manufacturers may also move upgraded features from their premium brands into more attainable price tiers. For example, the GE core brand's new Side-by-Side refrigerator includes an LED light wall that was previously only available for its Profile and Café brands.

What to watch: With discretionary purchases potentially capped in 2027, shifting the selling story beyond price and into solving actual user pain points will give brands an advantage regardless of the state of the industry.

SOURCE: MAJOR APPLIANCES, OPENBRAND TOTAL MARKET INSIGHTS, DEMAND INTELLIGENCE 

Shopper Insights Webinar:
Best Practices for 2027 Planning

Thursday, November 5 | 1 PM EST | 30 minutes

Join OpenBrand analysts Scott Peterson and Avery Bissett for a practical conversation built on real client questions. They'll show how brands and retailers use shopper insights to map the path to purchase and build a stronger 2027 plan.

WHAT YOU’LL LEARN:
➔ How to see whether shoppers are putting you on their shortlist
➔ Where shoppers go when they don't buy

➔ Why cross-shopping between retailers runs deeper than you think
➔ What's driving the purchase decision, and how those drivers shift year to year
➔ Why buyer profiles change over time and by market

If you have any feedback or suggestions, please reach out. I read every reply.

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