Consumer Price Index: Durable Goods | October 2026

In October, price growth for consumer durable goods decelerated with a month-over-month (MoM) increase of +0.35%. This is down from a revised monthly +0.67% increase in September. Across our four product groups, three showed either no growth month-over-month or deceleration, with the home improvement group showing the only price growth uptick. Some of that slowdown likely reflects October’s growing role as a promotional month, with Target and Best Buy posting the largest year-over-year increases in discounting activity during sales competing with Amazon’s Prime Big Deal Days.

October is gaining traction as a promotional month for durable goods. This year, merchants are discounting more products, but cutting prices by less. Best Buy and Target stood out for their increased discount frequency during Prime Big Deal Days this year. Best Buy led the merchants with a discount frequency reported at 51.4%, up from 39.9% last year, while Target posted the largest year-over-year increase, more than doubling its frequency to 29.2% from 13.2%. Lowe’s posted an increase as well, although smaller, reaching 27.1% from 26.1%. In contrast, discount frequency during the event fell at Amazon (35.0% from 47.7%), Walmart (26.2% from 42.4%) and Home Depot (23.8% from 35.8%).

All merchants except Home Depot increased their discount frequency during the event compared to the rest of the month. Against the rest of October, Amazon (26.1% to 35%) and Target (20.7% to 29.2%) delivered the largest event-period increases, followed by Best Buy (44.4% to 51.4%).

Target also stood out for discount magnitude. Its average event markdown reached 27.6%, the deepest among the merchants and the only increase from last year’s event, when it averaged 26.3%. Target also delivered the largest increase versus the rest of October, deepening discounts to 27.6% during its sales event from 23.5% outside of the event. At Home Depot (20.4% from 21.5%), Lowe’s (22.4% from 22.9%) and Walmart (23.4% from 25.9%), average event discounts were even smaller than their rest-of-month levels.

Overall, October 2026 showed merchants spreading promotions across more products while keeping each markdown modest. With Best Buy and Target stepping up as others pulled back, October promotions are becoming more competitive across merchants instead of centering on a single retailer’s event. Smaller discounts at most merchants suggest retailers are trying to stay visible to shoppers without giving up margin. As the holiday season approaches, the key question is whether we can expect retailers to keep favoring broader promotions over deeper discounts.

• Key CPI Takeaways for October 2026 & Macroeconomic Outlook
• Product Group Highlights
  • Appliances
  • Communication
  • Home Improvement
  • Recreation
• CPI 2026 Forecast: Macroeconomic Summary
• Methodology

Overall OpenBrand Consumer Price Index Movement: The OpenBrand CPI of Durable Goods recorded a +0.35% monthly change in October. All product groups except the communication group experienced price increases this month.

Discount Trends:

October brought mixed changes in discount activity to the durable goods sector, with magnitude month-over-month rising to 18.7% of all durable goods from 17.9% in the month prior.  The typical frequency decreased to 22.4%, down from 23.4% the month prior.

The year-over-year picture was also mixed, with only Appliances and Recreation recording higher discount frequency.  Appliances rose to 36.3% from 28.6%, and Recreation reached 29.5%, its highest October discount frequency since at least 2020.

Despite deepening from September, discount magnitude remained smaller than last October across every product group. Recreation had the deepest markdown at 22.2%, but that’s its lowest October level since 2020. 

Product Group Price Trends: Prices of all product groups except the communication group climbed month-over-month, with all groups except the home improvement group experiencing either no change or a downturn in the rate of growth from the month prior.  The group summary is as follows:

• Appliance Group (+0.15%)  
• Communication Group (-0.20%)  
• Home Improvement Group (+0.55%)  
• Recreation Group (+0.65%) 

CPI: Appliances

Prices for appliances remained flat compared to last month, remaining at +0.15%. Magnitude decreased from 17.4% to 17.2%, while frequency grew from 35.9% to 36.3% from September to October. The lack of price change was at least partially driven by the increase in discount frequency.

CPI: Communication

Prices of communication devices, including phones, tablets, computers, and printers, fell sharply on a month-over-month basis to -0.20%, down from a revised +0.62% the month prior. The deceleration in prices was at least partially driven by the increase in the typical discount magnitude, up by almost 5 percentage points from 13.5% in September to 18.2% in October.

CPI: Home Improvement

Prices for home improvement goods experienced acceleration in growth this month, increasing to +0.55% on a month-over-month seasonally-adjusted basis in October, increasing from +0.13% in the month prior. Both discount frequency and discount magnitude decreased this month, from 13.6% to 11.9%, and 17.5% to 17.2% respectively. The acceleration in prices was at least partially driven by the decrease in both the typical discount frequency and magnitude.

CPI: Recreation

The rate of price growth of recreational products, including TVs, headphones, and speaker systems, experienced acceleration this month, increasing to +1.36% on a month-over-month seasonally-adjusted basis in September, up from a revised +1.27% in August. Discount magnitude and discount frequency both decreased in September – from 24.3% to 24.2% and from 30.4% to 29.2% respectively. The acceleration in price growth was at least partially driven by the decrease in both the typical discount magnitude and frequency.

Energy disruptions continue to be the main risk for durable goods. Conflict across the Middle East has spread from the Strait of Hormuz to Saudi Arabia’s backup export routes. Consumer spending and business investment are still holding up, but higher fuel costs, sticky inflation and a Federal Reserve that is still raising rates make big-ticket purchases harder to afford.

Supply risks in the Gulf rose sharply over the past month. Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure briefly shut the East-West pipeline, which had been Saudi Arabia’s main way to ship oil around the Strait of Hormuz. Houthi forces now also control the area around the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, which puts Saudi Red Sea exports at risk. Iran has stepped up its strikes on commercial ships in Hormuz as well. Maritime authorities counted 23 attacks since early October, about double the monthly average since the conflict began. Brent crude has only recently in early November dropped below $110/barrel. Its premium over West Texas Intermediate widened to nearly $20 in late September and then to over $10 during October, well above the usual shipping-cost gap, which has generally stayed below $6 since May. That gap should close over time, but it may take weeks or months. With Iran still able to threaten tankers using mines, drones and missiles, the risk of oil prices rising further outweighs the chance of relief.

Fuel prices show the strain most clearly, especially diesel. Retail diesel is close to $6.30 per gallon in early November, which is close to double its level at the start of the year. Refinery damage in the Middle East and Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian plants have tightened global diesel supply. The crude that has gone missing during the conflict is also part of the problem. Gasoline, at over $4.10 per gallon, is also high. For durable goods, higher diesel costs feed directly into freight, last-mile delivery and installation. That raises the cost of shipping bulky items like appliances, furniture and outdoor equipment, and leaves less room for promotions.

Consumers have held up better than energy prices alone would suggest. Despite consumer sentiment continuing to drop, consumer spending maintains its growth. This points to resilience over retreat. Still, high pump prices and utility bills are taking a bigger share of household budgets. That makes buyers more likely to shop around, trade down or wait for promotions before buying discretionary durables.

The labor market is losing its ability to cushion household demand. Employers added just 29,000 jobs in September, far below expectations, and unemployment rose to 4.2%. Forecasts also assume AI will raise productivity while mostly complementing workers rather than replacing them. Monetary policy adds to the pressure. After raising rates in September, the Fed is expected to raise them by another quarter point in December, to a range of 4-4.25%. Mortgage rates are expected to stay high, which will discourage owners from selling and buyers from entering. That slows existing-home sales. Builders face weaker demand, too much inventory and growing reliance on concessions. Together, these conditions point to less activity in moves, new homes and renovations, which are key drivers of demand for appliances, furniture and other home durables.

Corporate spending tells a more positive story than household budgets. The AI buildout has kept going long enough that forecasters have raised their near-term outlook for it. Companies building out computing capacity are buying servers, networking gear, power and cooling systems, and other industrial equipment. That should keep orders steady for manufacturers and distributors who sell to business customers. Consumer-facing durables face a harder road, because high energy bills and rising borrowing costs push shoppers to put off purchases that aren’t urgent. The months ahead will likely favor companies that sell to business buyers and keep extra caution in place for retail. Retailers can protect themselves by keeping inventory lean, making each promotion count and watching freight costs closely.

Finally, the recent U.S. midterm election results could reshape future inflation pressures though immediate relief for durable-goods businesses or their customers appears unlikely. Democratic control of both chambers of Congress could make additional spending harder to pass, potentially limiting new stimulus that could add to price pressures. The democratic majority may push for an end to the conflict with Iran, which could help lower energy costs if those efforts lead to an easing of hostilities. Existing tariffs, however, may prove more persistent given the administration’s substantial executive authority over trade policy.

Note: This summary is based on data available as of early November 2026 and may be subject to revisions in future releases. Special thanks to Lauren Finck for her contributions to this month’s report.

For questions about the report, please contact Ralph McLaughlin at ralph@openbrand.com 

For press inquiries, please contact press@openbrand.com 

The OpenBrand CPI of Durable Goods is constructed using a data-driven methodology that ensures accuracy, timeliness, and transparency in measuring price trends for both short and long-lasting consumer products. The methodology consists of the following key components:

Data Collection

• Real-Time Price Tracking: Prices are sourced daily from online marketplaces, retail websites, and brick-and-mortar store listings.
• Retailer & Manufacturer Data: Aggregates pricing information from major retailers, direct-to-consumer brands, and wholesale suppliers into broader consumer categories.
• Temporal Coverage: Captures price variations over time, including daily discounts and price promotions

Product Selection & Tracking

• Durable and Goods Focus: The index includes products with an expected lifespan of three years or more, such as home appliances, consumer electronics, and tools.
• Brand & Model Tracking: Individual brands and models are monitored to reflect pricing shifts within competitive product segments, including both permanent changes in listing price as well as temporary promotional pricing.

Price Calculation, Adjustments, and Weighting

• Price Calculation: Tracks month-over-month and year-over-year price movements to measure price stability in the marketplace and take into account both longer-term changes in pricing (such as changes in manufacturer’s suggested retail price) as well as more short-term changes in pricing, such as promotional discounts and sales prices. 
• SKU-Removal Instead of Hedonic Adjustments: When a product (or SKU) becomes unavailable in the BLS goods basket, the BLS implements a SKU-replacement procedure whereby the next most similar product is used in its place, and a quality (hedonic) adjustment procedure is performed to get closer to an apples-to-apples price comparison. Since OpenBrand has data on nearly 100% of the SKUs pricing history in a given product category, we can simply remove that SKU from the basket and rely on price changes of the remaining SKUs in that basket. This eliminates the need for hedonic adjustment in the OpenBrand CPI basket.
• Weighting and Aggregation Method: A weighted geometric mean formula is used to minimize volatility and improve stability in price trend analysis at both the product grouping and category level. Instead of using sales-volume weights when aggregating the index, we take an alternative approach by using persistence-based weights for aggregation. Instead of more frequently purchased items getting more weight in the BLS’ CPI calculation, OpenBrand takes a more novel approach by weighting items with a more established price history in the market more heavily in our CPI calculation than items with a less established history.

Reporting & Updates

• High-Frequency Updates: Published freely on a monthly basis, with a subscription option for daily summaries across categories, sub-categories, and individual products.
• Comparative Benchmarks: We aggregate pricing as analogously as possible to traditional BLS CPI measures for benchmarking purposes.
• Transparency & Accessibility: Provides both open and paid data access for journalists, researchers, businesses, and policymakers.

By leveraging real-time data and advanced statistical techniques, the OpenBrand CPI offers an accurate and dynamic measure of pricing trends, helping businesses and consumers make informed decisions in an evolving economic landscape.