The Durables Brief Newsletter

Hi,

Welcome back to The Durables Brief. This month Greg and I sat down for our Q3 State of Durables update.

We kept circling back to one thread: how the energy backdrop is shaping price and demand. That meant digging into how Memorial Day and Prime Week discounting played out in the OpenBrand CPI, what the BEA data tells us about our Home & Tech Basket, and where we land on GDP, inflation, and housing heading into the back half of the year.

The short version: energy has shifted from a headwind toward a potential tailwind, and promotions are now central to how households actually experience inflation.

Below you'll find this month's macro read, category highlights from our analysts, and key resources our customers are leaning on.

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Durables Market Trends:
Prime Week Promotions Expand, but Inflation Persists 

• Prime Week 2026 was coverage led: discount coverage widened – especially in home improvement and recreation – while depth saw little change compared to 2025.

• Consumers, despite restrained expectations, still spent more than they intended during Prime Week in search of value, yet the increase in discount frequency was not enough to meaningfully cool inflationary pressure.

• OpenBrand’s Home and Tech basket’s growth was still solid, but increasingly price-led in May: reaching $350.5B at an annual rate.

• Energy prices are easing back to pre-conflict levels.

• With the 10‑year Treasury yield up to about 4.45% in June – about 30 basis points higher than the beginning of the year – demand for credit-dependent purchases is cooling as borrowing costs increase.

SOURCE: OPENBRAND CPI AND MACROECONOMICS, JULY 2026

Monthly Category Briefs

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Major Appliances: Imports Surge in June and July, Hinting at Pre-Loaded Inventory & Stronger H2 Promo Outlook

Analysis by Bryce Tecson, Major Appliance Analyst 

The Independence Day promotional period delivered a softer-than-expected experience for appliance shoppers this year, with lower discount rates and higher average prices compared to 2025. For example, in the refrigerators category, average discount rate declined to 21.3% across major retailers, which represents a 3.7ppt drop compared to the Independence Day 2025 promo period. 

While this may have dampened short-term demand, emerging supply-side signals suggest a more competitive Labor Day and Black Friday promotional environment could be on the horizon.

According to the NRF and Hackett Associates Global Port Tracker, US import volumes are projected to sharply rise in June, up 18.7% year-over-year, with July expected to mark the annual peak. This surge aligns closely with the July 24 expiration of temporary global tariffs, as well as the potential for additional tariffs in August tied to forced labor regulations. Manufacturers and retailers appear to be using this window to accelerate inbound inventory.

Although the Global Port Tracker import volumes span multiple industries, the appliance sector has seen similar behavior before. Whirlpool previously pointed to elevated imports as evidence of inventory pre-loading by Asian manufacturers, which ultimately contributed to increased promotional pressure. A comparable dynamic may be developing now.

What to watch: If inventory builds continue, retailers may need to rely more heavily on promotions to drive sell-through. That sets up the potential for stronger discounting during key second-half events, particularly Labor Day and Black Friday, as the industry works to rebalance supply.

SOURCE: MAJOR APPLIANCES, OPENBRAND TOTAL MARKET INSIGHTS

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Power Tools: Price Beats Newness: How Father's Day Shifted the Saws Market

Analysis by Lee Davis, Power Tools Analyst

In June, Home Depot kept shelves full and launched more new saws than anyone, yet still lost dollar share (55.5% to 53.5%). Lowe's shrank its shelf presence and gained (28.4% to 29.9%). The difference: Father's Day. Lowe's discounts peaked near 34% that week versus Home Depot's 29%. Saw shoppers chose price over newness.

What this signals: If Lowe's keeps this share after promotions normalize, it's a real shift. If it slips in July, June was just a seasonal promo win.

SOURCE: POWER TOOLS, OPENBRAND TOTAL MARKET INSIGHTS

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Outdoor Power Equipment: Home Depot Extends Its Lead in Line Trimmers as Ryobi Overtakes Ego

Analysis by Adrienne Spear, Senior OPE Analyst 

1. Ryobi overtakes Ego as the #1 dollar-share brand, Home Depot's exclusive brand passed Lowe's exclusive brand in a single month. Ryobi's dollar share jumped +1.5 ppts to 18.1% while Ego fell -2.1 ppts to 14.6% from May to June.

2. Home Depot's lead widens as Lowe's slips, and Walmart is the only outlet losing share on every front. Home Depot's dollar share lead over Lowe's grew to a full 9 points (37.5% vs. 28.5%) as Lowe's dropped -2.4 ppts; Walmart lost both unit share (-1.1 ppts) and dollar share (-0.6 ppts).

3. Ace Hardware and Amazon are the only two-way share winners this month. Ace Hardware posted the category's largest dollars share gain (+2.0 ppts) and grew unit share (+0.4 ppts); Amazon added +0.7 ppts of dollar share and +0.4 ppts of unit share.

What to watch: Is Home Depot's growth being driven by Ryobi's momentum, Lowe's/Ego's stumble, or both reinforcing each other? Home Depot already converts 59% of shoppers who first shop Lowe's, 39% of Amazon shoppers, and 35% of Walmart shoppers into a purchase, a reminder that outlet share gains don't always start on the shelf; sometimes they start with someone else's shopper.

SOURCE: OPE, OPENBRAND TOTAL MARKET INSIGHTS

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Consumer Electronics: Leading Discounts at BestBuy.com

Analysis by Avery Bissett, Laptops Analyst

Laptop discounting this July is quietly revealing which brands are clearing inventory and which are holding the line. 

1. Dell is the only major brand to have higher discounts YoY, with averages up 2ppts to 25%

• The highest discount was 47% off of its mainstream $849 Dell 15 (LDC15250-5434BLK-PUS), in part due to Best Buy’s practice of offsetting price increases with inflated promotional values

• The brand also benefited from heightened discounting on its n-1 models ahead of its in-store Dell 14 and 16 refreshes that lagged competitors by several weeks

2. While HP’s discount average slipped 2ppt YoY to 25%, this decline was less pronounced than competitors

• Discounts were led by 50% off the $399 HP 14 Chromebook, as well as several deals in the 40% range

• Deals covered the entire product stack, from last year’s models such as an entry-level $359 SKUs to the $1,659 OmniBook X Flip with Panther Lake

3. Lenovo’s average discount is 3ppt less so far this month at 23%

• Deals primarily featured entry and mainstream notebooks, with most of its offers in excess of 30% off having a shelf price well under $1,000

What this signals: Watch whether Dell's discounts normalize once its Dell 14 and 16 refreshes hit shelves, and whether HP and Lenovo answer with deeper promotions on premium SKUs. The bigger signal is how much of any "discount" reflects real value versus inflated promo pricing layered on top of list increases.

SOURCE: NOTEBOOKS, OPENBRAND TOTAL MARKET INSIGHTS (across average discount depth for July 2026 to date versus July 2025 at BestBuy.com)

Prime Day Recap: Shopper, Pricing & Macro Retailer Strategy

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