Consumer Price Index: Durable and Personal Goods | April 2025

Price growth for consumer durables and personal goods accelerated on a monthly basis in April, with a sharp month-over-month increase of 0.35% compared to a revised monthly 0.12% increase in March. Price growth was driven primarily by upward price movements of communications devices and equipment, home improvement items, and recreational goods. Across the largest moving categories, price growth acceleration was concentrated in desktop computers, headphones, ink, monitors, notebooks, projectors, power tools, and toner, with monthly increases of between +0.63% and 1.98%.

Given general deflationary trends at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, we suspect some of the recent acceleration in price growth was driven in part by the implementation of U.S. tariffs over the past few months. The tariffs have targeted a wide range of goods imported from China and other major U.S. trading partners, and span a variety of goods covered in our CPI basket, including electronics, tools, and other everyday consumer products. As importers of goods from newly tariffed countries faced higher costs, it’s likely many passed those increases along to retailers and, ultimately, consumers. 

Prices for items like desktop computers, headphones, ink, monitors, notebooks, projectors, power tools, and toner accelerated the most, with an acceleration of price growth across these categories from 0% – 0.3% in March to 0.63%-1.98% in April. It’s likely that not only have such tariffs raised import costs, but also strained supply chains, compounding upward pressure on prices and adding uncertainty to the economic outlook. The good news, however, is that there appears to be a willingness of the Trump administration to cut trade deals in the coming months. As such, we anticipate inflation to be more transient in nature throughout the remainder of the year as trade deals get inked.

Macroeconomic Outlook Update: The U.S. economy is now exhibiting mixed signals. On one hand, the labor market remains resilient—April saw a stronger-than-expected addition of 177,000 jobs. On the other hand, early GDP estimates reflect a modest contraction in Q1, driven in part by front-loaded inventory accumulation ahead of tariff hikes. As reported in this report as well as from official government sources, iInflation continues to trend above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, fueled by rising import prices and supply chain adjustments. Core goods inflation is up, while services inflation remains sticky.

Financial markets are responding cautiously. The S&P 500, after a sharp drop earlier in the year, is stabilizing but remains volatile. Business confidence has dipped, particularly in manufacturing and construction, which are sensitive to input costs and global demand shifts. The Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady through the summer while assessing the full impact of trade measures on inflation and growth.

Looking ahead, the global economic outlook for the second half of 2025 will depend heavily on policy responses—particularly whether central banks can maintain credibility while navigating between inflation control and supporting growth. The baseline scenario points to slower but positive growth in the U.S. and modest recovery potential in Europe and Asia. However, risks are tilted to the downside, primarily due to geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation, and tighter financial conditions. As mentioned last month, the long-term impact on prices and macroeconomic conditions from current trade tensions is less clear, and will depend upon other factors such as Federal Reserve Board interest rate decisions, household and/or business tax cuts, and the outcome of ongoing multilateral trade negotiations.

Today’s announcement of cooling trade tensions between the U.S. and China – which has led to a reduction of tariffs on imports from China to 30% for 90 days – is a positive step that indicates a full-on trade deal is in the works. That said, 30% is larger than the 20% that has remained in effect over the past month, so we won’t fully expect price pressures to ease – or turn negative – until effective tariffs on durable and personal goods from China fall back down below that 20% threshold.

Overall Index Movement: The OpenBrand CPI of Durable and Personal Goods recorded a 0.35% monthly change in April, notching the fifth consecutive month-over-month increase as retailers continue to grapple with an intensifying tariff environment in the first month of the second quarter. The magnitude of price change accelerated considerably compared with last month’s increase of 0.12%.

Discount Trends: April brought very slight changes to the incidence and amount of discounts to the durables and personal goods sector, with frequencies rising month-over-month to 21.2% of all durable and personal goods from 20.5% in the month prior, and the typical magnitude decreasing to 19.5% from 20.6%. With price uncertainty remaining high due to ongoing trade negotiations, we should expect overall trends in discounting activity to remain in a holding pattern until more clarity emerges.

Product Group Price Trends: Three product groups – Communications, Home Improvement, and Recreation – all experienced sharp increases in price growth from the prior month, while two groups – Appliances and Personal Care – experienced declines:

• Appliance Group (-0.1%)
• Communication Group (+1.0%)
• Home Improvement Group (+0.5%)
• Personal Care Group (-0.4%)
• Recreation Group (TVs, speakers, and headphones) (+0.7%)

See the full breakdown of product groupings. 

CPI: Appliances

Prices for appliances decreased slightly by 0.06% on a month-over-month basis in March, decelerating from strong growth of 0.47% in the month prior. The discount frequency on appliances increased by nearly three percentage points, from 38.8% in March to 41.5% in April, but the trend has been relatively stable at between 38% and 43% since May 2024. However, the magnitude of such discounts decreased slightly over the month to 16.8% from 17.0% the month prior, and has remained in the low-to-mid teens since the onset of the pandemic.

CPI: Communication

Prices of communication devices, including phones, tablets, computers, and printers, rose sharply on a month-over-month basis to 0.97%, up from a revised 0.05% the month prior. This is the fifth consecutive month where monthly price growth was either flat or positive. Much of the increase in prices was likely due to a drop in both the frequency and magnitude of discounts. The frequency of discounts decreased over the month from 8.0% in March to 5.5% in April, but both months were down by about half since May 2024, when they ranged from about 12.0% to 14.5%. The magnitude of discounts decreased by 400 basis points, from 23.0% in March to 19.0% in April.

CPI: Home Improvement

The index for home improvement goods increased sharply in April to 0.54% on a month-over-month basis, showing 25 consecutive month-over-month flat or monthly increases and up from a flat change in March. Much of the increase in prices was likely due to a drop in both the frequency and magnitude of discounts. The frequency of discounts was 12.0% of products in April, down from 12.4% in March. In addition to the increase in the share of products with a discount, the magnitude of discounts also decreased month-over-month, falling from 18.3% in March to 17.4% in April.

CPI: Personal Care

Prices of personal care products fell on a monthly basis in April 2025 by 0.43%, the second consecutive month of month-over-month declines. Some of this decrease may be due to a slight increase in the incidence and magnitude of price discounts, with the share of discounted personal care products increasing from a revised 23.4% in March to 24.4% in April and the average discount magnitude growing from 20.7% to 21.3% over the same period.

CPI: Recreation

Prices of recreational products, including TVs, headphones, and speaker systems, increased by 0.74% on a month-over-month basis in April, up sharply from 0.20% in March. This is the ninth increase over the past ten months. While the frequency of discounts increased to 22.8% in April from 19.7% in March, the average magnitude of discounts decreased from 23.9% to 23.2% over the same time period.

As of May 2025, the global economy is facing heightened uncertainty amid evolving trade dynamics, stubborn inflationary pressures, and signs of slowing growth in key advanced economies. The United States remains the focal point of macroeconomic discussion, following the full implementation of a sweeping set of tariffs introduced under President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” policy, which is already reshaping global trade patterns and domestic price levels.

The U.S. economy is exhibiting mixed signals. On one hand, the labor market remains resilient—April saw a stronger-than-expected addition of 177,000 jobs. On the other hand, early GDP estimates reflect a modest contraction in Q1, driven in part by front-loaded inventory accumulation ahead of tariff hikes. Inflation continues to trend above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, fueled by rising import prices and supply chain adjustments. Core goods inflation is up, while services inflation remains sticky.

Financial markets have responded cautiously. The S&P 500, after a sharp drop earlier in the year, is stabilizing but remains volatile. Business confidence has dipped, particularly in manufacturing and construction, which are sensitive to input costs and global demand shifts. The Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady through the summer while assessing the full impact of trade measures on inflation and growth.

The European economy is experiencing stagnation, with weak industrial output and declining consumer sentiment. The European Central Bank is expected to begin modest rate cuts in Q2 to prevent deflationary risks. In Asia, China is contending with sluggish growth and persistent weakness in the real estate sector, even as it pursues targeted stimulus and supply-side reforms. Export volumes have declined in response to U.S. tariffs, prompting further realignment in regional trade relationships.

The Trump administration’s tariff regime has become a central risk factor in global forecasts. With universal 10% tariffs on all imports and higher sectoral rates on key partners like China and the EU, retaliation is expected to escalate, potentially fragmenting global supply chains further. While some U.S. industries may benefit from reduced foreign competition, consumers and globally integrated firms are facing rising costs.

Looking ahead, the global economic outlook for the second half of 2025 will depend heavily on policy responses—particularly whether central banks can maintain credibility while navigating between inflation control and supporting growth. The baseline scenario points to slower but positive growth in the U.S. and modest recovery potential in Europe and Asia. However, risks are tilted to the downside, primarily due to geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation, and tighter financial conditions.

Note: This summary is based on data available as of early May 2025 and may be subject to revisions in future releases. In the May 2025 release, we have adjusted the group weighting when aggregating group-level changes to changes in the overall CPI-DPG, moving from a slight skew from communications and personal goods to an equal weighting scheme. We have back-revised all prior numbers in the release to reflect this change in weighting procedure.

The OpenBrand CPI of Durable and Personal Goods is constructed using a data-driven methodology that ensures accuracy, timeliness, and transparency in measuring price trends for both short and long-lasting consumer products. The methodology consists of the following key components:

1. Data Collection

• Real-Time Price Tracking: Prices are sourced daily from online marketplaces, retail websites, and brick-and-mortar store listings.
• Retailer & Manufacturer Data: Aggregates pricing information from major retailers, direct-to-consumer brands, and wholesale suppliers into broader consumer categories.
• Temporal Coverage: Captures price variations over time, including daily discounts and price promotions

2. Product Selection & Tracking

• Durable and Personal Goods Focus: The index includes products with an expected lifespan of three years or more, such as home appliances, consumer electronics, and tools, as well as personal care products with a shorter lifespan, such as hair and skin care products, vitamins, over-the-counter medications, and oral care products. 
• Brand & Model Tracking: Individual brands and models are monitored to reflect pricing shifts within competitive product segments, including both permanent changes in listing price as well as temporary promotional pricing.

3. Price Calculation, Adjustments, and Weighting

• Price Calculation: Tracks month-over-month and year-over-year price movements to measure price stability in the marketplace and take into account both longer-term changes in pricing (such as changes in manufacturer’s suggested retail price) as well as more short-term changes in pricing, such as promotional discounts and sales prices. 
• SKU-Removal Instead of Hedonic Adjustments: When a product (or SKU) becomes unavailable in the BLS goods basket, the BLS implements a SKU-replacement procedure whereby the next most similar product is used in its place, and a quality (hedonic) adjustment procedure is performed to get closer to an apples-to-apples price comparison. Since OpenBrand has data on nearly 100% of the SKUs pricing history in a given product category, we can simply remove that SKU from the basket and rely on price changes of the remaining SKUs in that basket. This eliminates the need for hedonic adjustment in the OpenBrand CPI basket.
• Weighting and Aggregation Method: A weighted geometric mean formula is used to minimize volatility and improve stability in price trend analysis at both the product grouping and category level. Instead of using sales-volume weights when aggregating the index, we take an alternative approach by using persistence-based weights for aggregation. Instead of more frequently purchased items getting more weight in the BLS’ CPI calculation, OpenBrand takes a more novel approach by weighting items with a more established price history in the market more heavily in our CPI calculation than items with a less established history.

4. Reporting & Updates

• High-Frequency Updates: Published freely on a monthly basis, with a subscription option for daily summaries across categories, sub-categories, and individual products.
• Comparative Benchmarks: We aggregate pricing as analogously as possible to traditional BLS CPI measures for benchmarking purposes.
• Transparency & Accessibility: Provides both open and paid data access for journalists, researchers, businesses, and policymakers.

By leveraging real-time data and advanced statistical techniques, the OpenBrand CPI offers an accurate and dynamic measure of pricing trends, helping businesses and consumers make informed decisions in an evolving economic landscape.