Consumer Price Index: Durable Goods | July 2026

In July, price growth for consumer durable goods accelerated with a month-over-month (MoM) increase of +0.83%. This is up from a revised monthly +0.65% increase in June. Across our four product groups, three showed month-over-month acceleration, with communication showing the only price growth slowdown.

Of note this month is the sharp acceleration in the rate of appliance price growth compared to June. What’s more, the acceleration is not only high in magnitude, but also directionally different (from price decreases in June to increases in July). This trend is apparent across both our seasonally and non-seasonally adjusted CPI datasets. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the increase was from a negative growth in June (-0.02%) to strongly positive in July (+0.14%). This is the largest seasonally adjusted monthly increase since January of this year. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, July 2026 brought the largest increase since May of last year at +0.55%.

This month’s sharp rise in the OpenBrand CPI for Appliances may be partly explained by the recent change to Section 232 tariffs. As a brief primer, President Trump expanded Section 232 tariffs to cover imported steel and aluminum in 2018, starting at 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum. His administration increased these rates to 50% in mid-2025, and added copper. On April 6, 2026, Section 232 changed again so that the tariff applies to an appliance’s entire price instead of just its metal parts. Since most major appliances, such as refrigerators, dishwashers, and washing machines, use a substantial amount of these metals as inputs, there is a non-trivial risk that appliance manufacturers may need to pass along these costs to retailers and buyers as these input costs rise.

For the Communication & Recreation Groups, Amazon’s Prime Week discounting was still focused on quantity over quality, but differed on value products versus premium:  smartphones saw almost 80% of Prime Week deals occurring under the $800 price range.  Headphones, however, focused discounts on higher end products, so the dollar savings amount was in-line with last year, but the amount of discount was smaller. 

While appliance-sector demand indicators have swung sharply since the April 2026 Section 232 tariff expansion, recent patterns look more like normal month-to-month noise than a demand response to higher prices. The BEA’s Appliance Quantity Index rose 0.7% in April, fell 1.1% in May, then rebounded 2.1% in June. This was a net gain over the three months rather than a sustained pullback. U.S. Census’ Electronics and Appliance Store retail sales followed a similar up-down-up-adjacent path (+1.5% April, -2.3% May), and appliance manufacturers’ shipments dipped 0.7% in April before recovering 1.4% in May, its strongest reading since last summer. 

None of these series show the kind of multi-month deceleration one would expect if tariff-driven price increases were meaningfully suppressing purchases. Building materials store sales tell a more consistent story: up just 0.8% in April and down 1.2% in May, a soft patch that lines up better with the housing market than with appliances specifically. That’s consistent with a broader housing slowdown weighing on demand, as existing-home sales fell 2.4% month-over-month in June to a 4.09 million annualized pace even as mortgage rates stayed above 6%. On a similar trend, new-home sales in June remained 5.6% below year-ago levels despite a small monthly uptick. With turnover this soft, fewer households are moving into homes that typically drive new appliance and building-material purchases — a more plausible explanation for the building materials softness than tariff pass-through. 

For now, our read is that appliance demand volatility reflects the usual month-to-month churn in these series plus a sluggish housing market, not early evidence that Section 232-related price increases are curbing appliance purchases.

• Key CPI Takeaways for July 2026 & Macroeconomic Outlook
• Product Group Highlights
  • Appliances
  • Communication
  • Home Improvement
  • Recreation
• CPI 2026 Forecast: Macroeconomic Summary
• Methodology

Overall OpenBrand Consumer Price Index Movement: The OpenBrand CPI of Durable Goods recorded a +0.83% monthly change in July. All product groups experienced price increases this month.

Discount Trends: July brought saw decreases in discount activity to the durable goods sector, with both magnitude and frequency of all durable goods month-over-month falling compared to the month prior: to 19.2% from 19.6%, and to 24.6% from 25.4% respectively.

Product Group Price Trends:

Prices of all product groups climbed month-over-month, with all groups except the Communication Group experiencing an uptick in the rate of growth from the month prior. The group summary is as follows:

• Appliance Group (+0.14%)  
• Communication Group (+0.27%)  
• Home Improvement Group (+1.23%)  
• Recreation Group (+1.67%)  

CPI: Appliances

Prices for appliances rose compared to last month, increasing to +0.14% from -0.02% in June. Both discount frequency and discount magnitude decreased this month, from 41.5% to 40.8%, and 17.3% to 17.2% respectively. The acceleration in price growth was at least partially driven by the decrease in both frequency & magnitude of discounts.

CPI: Communication

Prices of communication devices, including phones, tablets, computers, and printers, fell on a month-over-month basis to +0.27%, down from a revised +1.11% the month prior. Both discount frequency and discount magnitude decreased this month, from 15.5% to 13.1%, and 19.6% to 17.9% respectively. The decrease in both frequency and magnitude of discounts would lead us to expect an increase in prices, however, since prices of communication devices decreased in July, it could be that shelf prices were set higher. Notably, Apple raised list prices on a number of products in June and July, which would be consistent with a higher shelf-price baseline heading into the month of July.

CPI: Home Improvement

Prices for home improvement goods experienced an acceleration in growth this month, increasing to +1.23% on a month-over-month seasonally-adjusted basis in July, rising from +1.03% in the month prior. Discount frequency decreased from 14.2% to 13.4% from June to July, while discount magnitude increased from 16.9% to 17.4% from June to July. The acceleration in price growth was at least partially driven by the decrease in the typical discount frequency.

CPI: Recreation

The rate of price growth of recreational products, including TVs, headphones, and speaker systems, experienced acceleration this month, increasing to +1.67% on a month-over-month seasonally-adjusted basis in July, up from a revised +1.31% in June. Discount magnitude decreased from 24.7% to 24.0% from June to July, while discount frequency increased from 30.2% to 31.0% from June to July. The acceleration in price growth was at least partially driven by the decrease in the typical discount magnitude.

The macro backdrop for durable goods as we move through the second half of 2026 is shifting from crisis management toward cautious normalization, but with meaningful degradation that will linger for producers and retailers. Oil prices have retreated from their recent peak and the benchmark Brent forecast for late‑2026 has been marked down, yet crude is still expected to remain above levels seen at the start of the year. That combination keeps energy costs in focus for any business managing freight‑intensive supply chains or power‑hungry production lines. For the durable goods sector, the story is less about an outright energy shock and more about a prolonged period of elevated, volatile input costs that require careful planning.

The conflict‑driven closure of the Strait of Hormuz earlier this year forced a rapid drawdown of oil inventories, and those stockpiles have now fallen to uncomfortably low levels. The memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran in mid‑June opened the door to renewed tanker traffic, but flows are only gradually rebuilding and remain far below normal, with a fuller recovery unlikely before late summer. At the same time, Middle Eastern production will take several months to return to its prior trajectory, extending the period in which the global system has little margin for error. 

Durable goods businesses that depend on stable fuel, petrochemical, or shipping markets should expect an extended transition phase: not the worst‑case scenario of permanent scarcity, but plenty of room for price swings and logistical disruptions as capacity and confidence stabilize. Governments have already released a sizable volume of crude from emergency stockpiles, which helped refineries in Europe and Asia avoid severe cutbacks and preserved demand for industrial durables tied to refining, transport, and storage infrastructure.

Beyond energy, the macro environment remains a mix of solid growth and tightening financial conditions that will shape the structure of durables demand. Real nonresidential investment has surprised to the upside, with capital spending posting double‑digit annualized gains (10.6%) and inflation‑adjusted nondefense, non-aircraft spending on capital goods in June reaching their highest level (3.6%) since 2024. Much of this strength is concentrated in technology and automation: the AI investment boom is increasing demand for the most up-to-date servers in order for firms to increase their abilities to develop new software.

Labor and financial conditions reinforce this split. The headline unemployment rate has dipped slightly to 4.3%, but the underlying signal is less encouraging: in June labor‑force participation fell back to levels (61.5%) not seen since early 2021.  This pattern can constrain growth in real incomes and keep households cautious about discretionary, large‑ticket purchases. At the same time, inflation linked to higher transport and insurance costs is limiting the central bank’s room to ease policy, and officials have adopted a more guarded stance when setting rates, preferring to hold steady rather than cut. Equity markets have digested this environment reasonably well so far, with the S&P 500 up about 9.5% year-to-date.  Bond yields, however, have moved noticeably higher, with the 10-year Treasury yield trading at 4.7% at the end of July, more than 40 basis points higher than at the start of the year. 

Housing and construction add another layer to the outlook for durables linked to residential demand. Elevated mortgage rates and stubbornly poor affordability are suppressing both new and existing‑home sales, limiting turnover and reducing the impulse for purchases of furniture, appliances, and home‑improvement goods. Builders face an uncomfortable combination of higher material and labor costs, muted sales, and a growing stock of completed units, all of which weigh on the incentive to start new projects and point to weaker permit issuance ahead. Near‑term expectations for multifamily construction have also been scaled back, and slower population growth alongside softer household formation is likely to limit demand for new housing over the longer run. 

Taken together, this points to a durable goods landscape in which industrial and technology‑oriented categories benefit from strong capital spending, while consumer and housing‑linked segments navigate a tougher environment characterized by higher borrowing costs, cautious households, and a slower pipeline of new homes.

Note: This summary is based on data available as of early August 2026 and may be subject to revisions in future releases. Special thanks to Lauren Finck for her contributions to this month’s report.

For questions about the report, please contact Ralph McLaughlin at ralph@openbrand.com 

For press inquiries, please contact press@openbrand.com 

The OpenBrand CPI of Durable Goods is constructed using a data-driven methodology that ensures accuracy, timeliness, and transparency in measuring price trends for both short and long-lasting consumer products. The methodology consists of the following key components:

Data Collection

• Real-Time Price Tracking: Prices are sourced daily from online marketplaces, retail websites, and brick-and-mortar store listings.
• Retailer & Manufacturer Data: Aggregates pricing information from major retailers, direct-to-consumer brands, and wholesale suppliers into broader consumer categories.
• Temporal Coverage: Captures price variations over time, including daily discounts and price promotions

Product Selection & Tracking

• Durable and Goods Focus: The index includes products with an expected lifespan of three years or more, such as home appliances, consumer electronics, and tools.
• Brand & Model Tracking: Individual brands and models are monitored to reflect pricing shifts within competitive product segments, including both permanent changes in listing price as well as temporary promotional pricing.

Price Calculation, Adjustments, and Weighting

• Price Calculation: Tracks month-over-month and year-over-year price movements to measure price stability in the marketplace and take into account both longer-term changes in pricing (such as changes in manufacturer’s suggested retail price) as well as more short-term changes in pricing, such as promotional discounts and sales prices. 
• SKU-Removal Instead of Hedonic Adjustments: When a product (or SKU) becomes unavailable in the BLS goods basket, the BLS implements a SKU-replacement procedure whereby the next most similar product is used in its place, and a quality (hedonic) adjustment procedure is performed to get closer to an apples-to-apples price comparison. Since OpenBrand has data on nearly 100% of the SKUs pricing history in a given product category, we can simply remove that SKU from the basket and rely on price changes of the remaining SKUs in that basket. This eliminates the need for hedonic adjustment in the OpenBrand CPI basket.
• Weighting and Aggregation Method: A weighted geometric mean formula is used to minimize volatility and improve stability in price trend analysis at both the product grouping and category level. Instead of using sales-volume weights when aggregating the index, we take an alternative approach by using persistence-based weights for aggregation. Instead of more frequently purchased items getting more weight in the BLS’ CPI calculation, OpenBrand takes a more novel approach by weighting items with a more established price history in the market more heavily in our CPI calculation than items with a less established history.

Reporting & Updates

• High-Frequency Updates: Published freely on a monthly basis, with a subscription option for daily summaries across categories, sub-categories, and individual products.
• Comparative Benchmarks: We aggregate pricing as analogously as possible to traditional BLS CPI measures for benchmarking purposes.
• Transparency & Accessibility: Provides both open and paid data access for journalists, researchers, businesses, and policymakers.

By leveraging real-time data and advanced statistical techniques, the OpenBrand CPI offers an accurate and dynamic measure of pricing trends, helping businesses and consumers make informed decisions in an evolving economic landscape.