Consumer Price Index: Durable and Personal Goods | March 2026

In March, price growth for consumer durable goods accelerated after a slight slowdown in February, with a month-over-month (MoM) increase of +0.43%. This is up from a revised monthly +0.37% increase in the month prior. Across our four product groups, all showed month-over-month acceleration, with the appliance group continuing to show moderate price declines. While there has been some speculation that inflation would accelerate much faster in March due to spiking oil prices, some of the muted rise could have been due to a barrage of discounting events in the last week of April, led by Amazon.

During the Spring 2026 discounting period, BestBuy.com and Walmart.com were leading the pack on markdowns in durable goods. BestBuy.com’s promotions climbed just above 41%, giving it the broadest discounting stance among the major retailers tracked, with Walmart.com close behind at roughly 24%. Amazon.com followed with discounts near 37%, while Target.com and HomeDepot.com trailed at about 20% and just under 10%, respectively. For shoppers, the Spring 2026 landscape meant the most aggressive deals were concentrated at BestBuy.com, with Walmart.com also competing strongly on price.

The more interesting story, however, is how far each merchant moved away from its “normal” discounting pattern during the Spring 2026 discounting period. Target.com shows the most pronounced shift, with discounts roughly doubling from 7.5% in early March to about 20% in that discount window—a clear sign of a late‑month promotional push. Walmart.com also meaningfully increased promotions, stepping up from roughly 21% to about 24%, whereas Amazon.com and BestBuy.com layered in only modest additional discounting and HomeDepot.com actually eased back from its early‑March levels. In absolute terms, BestBuy.com was the standout discounter, but in relative terms, Target.com’s surge in promotional intensity marks it as the retailer that leaned hardest into deals as March drew to a close.

• Key CPI Takeaways for March 2026 & Macroeconomic Outlook
• Product Group Highlights
  • Appliances
  • Communication
  • Home Improvement
  • Recreation
• CPI 2026 Forecast: Macroeconomic Summary
• Methodology

Overall OpenBrand Consumer Price Index Movement: The OpenBrand CPI of Durable Goods recorded a +0.43% monthly change in March, notching the sixteenth consecutive month-over-month increase and 21st of the last 22nd months. There was a decent increase in price growth this month. This increase is within a range we typically see when going into March from February.

Discount Trends: March brought mixed changes in discount activity to the durable goods sector, with frequencies month-over-month falling to 19.0% of all durable goods from 19.3% in the month prior. The typical magnitude increased to 25.1%, up from 23.0% the month prior.

Product Group Price Trends:

All product groups experienced an uptick in the rate of growth from the month prior, with prices of all groups except Appliances climbing month-over-month.  The group summary is as follows:

• Appliance Group (-0.04%)  
• Communication Group (+0.59%)  
• Home Improvement Group (+0.67%)  
• Recreation Group (+0.77%)  

CPI: Appliances

Prices for appliances increased on a month-over-month basis in March to -0.04%, rising from a revised -0.11% in the month prior. The positive price growth was at least partially driven by the typical discount magnitude decreasing to 17.0% from 17.9%, while the frequency of discounts increased over 4.5 percentage points to 42.2% from 37.6% the month prior. This is the largest increase in discount frequency month-over-month when looking at the past 13 Marches, which is four percentage points higher than its last peak in month-over-month discount frequency growth, for the Appliance group. This large increase in discount frequency could be attributed to tariffs currently making less of an impact on pricing, allowing both manufacturers and retailers to pass along these savings to consumers.

CPI: Communication

Prices of communication devices, including phones, tablets, computers, and printers, rose on a month-over-month basis to +0.59%, up from a revised -0.12% the month prior. The frequency and magnitude of discounts both grew in March. Frequency increased from 14.5% to 15.1%, while magnitude grew from 19.0% to 19.3% from February to March. The increase in both frequency and magnitude of discounts would lead us to expect a decrease in prices, however, since prices of communication devices increased in March, it could be that shelf prices were set higher.

CPI: Home Improvement

Prices for home improvement goods experienced a deceleration in growth this month, increasing to +0.67% on a month-over-month seasonally-adjusted basis in March, growing from a revised +0.51% in the month prior, showing 36 consecutive month-over-month flat or monthly increases. The acceleration in price growth was at least partially driven by the decrease in both the typical discount frequency (10.6% from 10.7% the month prior) and the typical magnitude of discounts (16.1% from 16.4% the month prior).

CPI: Recreation

The rate of price growth of recreational products, including TVs, headphones, and speaker systems, experienced acceleration this month, increasing to +0.77% on a month-over-month seasonally-adjusted basis in March, up from a revised +0.74% in February. Some of this increase in the pace of price growth is at least partially due to a slight decrease in the average magnitude of discounts – down to 23.8% from 24.0%.

The frequency of discounts experienced an uncharacteristically high increase for March– up sharply to 32.3% in March from 29.3% in February (increasing by 3 percentage points). With this large increase in discount frequency, we would expect prices to fall for recreation products. Since prices rose this month, it is most likely that shelf prices for recreation products were set higher.

As of April 2026, the U.S. macroeconomic backdrop reflects a transition from a disinflationary environment toward a more uncertain, shock-driven phase. Entering the year, underlying inflation—particularly in core goods—had been moderating, supported by easing supply chains, softer demand for consumer durables, and normalization in categories like appliances, vehicles, and furnishings. This trend pointed toward stable or even modestly declining prices for many durable goods, especially as retailers continued to rely on discounting to stimulate demand.

However, the escalation of the military conflict involving Iran has introduced a meaningful upside risk to inflation through energy markets. Oil prices have risen sharply amid concerns about disruptions to global supply, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles a significant share of global energy flows. Recent price spikes—pushing crude oil toward or above $100 per barrel—are already feeding into higher gasoline and transportation costs, with broader pass-through effects expected across goods categories.

The impact on durable goods prices is likely to be indirect but material. Higher energy costs raise input prices for manufacturing, shipping, and logistics, which can slow or reverse the recent disinflation in goods. At the same time, there is typically a lagged demand effect: while consumers initially absorb higher fuel costs, real consumption tends to weaken in subsequent months, putting downward pressure on discretionary categories. This creates a mixed environment where cost pressures push prices up even as weakening demand limits pricing power.

From a macro perspective, this dynamic introduces a mild stagflationary risk. Elevated energy prices are expected to lift headline inflation in the near term—potentially by several tenths of a percentage point—while also weighing on GDP growth and household spending. The Federal Reserve is therefore likely to face a policy tradeoff, as tightening policy to combat energy-driven inflation could further dampen growth, while easing risks allowing inflation expectations to reaccelerate.

Overall, the outlook for price growth in 2026 has shifted from a steady moderation to a more uneven path. Durable goods prices are likely to remain relatively subdued compared to recent years but may stabilize or rise modestly as energy costs filter through supply chains. The key determinant going forward will be the duration of the conflict and whether energy prices remain elevated or begin to normalize later in the year.

Note: This summary is based on data available as of early April 2025 and may be subject to revisions in future releases.

For questions about the report, please contact Ralph McLaughlin at ralph@openbrand.com 

For press inquiries, please contact press@openbrand.com 

Special Note on Methodology Update — OpenBrand Consumer Price Index

Change to the OpenBrand CPI of Durable Goods

Beginning with this release, personal care products will no longer be included in the OpenBrand Consumer Price Index (CPI monthly report. February was the final month in which personal care categories are incorporated into the headline index.

This methodological update reflects a strategic refinement of the OpenBrand CPI’s core objective: to measure price and discount trends exclusively within the consumer durable goods sector. While personal care products provide valuable insight into broader retail pricing dynamics, their pricing behavior and promotional cycles differ meaningfully from those of durable goods. Removing these categories will enhance the precision and interpretability of the index as a focused measure of durable goods inflation and discounting activity.

To preserve historical continuity and analytical comparability, all future releases of the OpenBrand CPI and the OpenBrand CPI NowCast will include back-calculated index values with personal care products removed. This revised historical series will allow users to evaluate long-term trends on a consistent methodological basis and ensure that month-over-month and year-over-year comparisons remain accurate.

This refinement strengthens the OpenBrand CPI’s role as a high-frequency, data-driven indicator of pricing power, discount intensity, and inflation trends across consumer durable goods. We believe this update will improve clarity for policymakers, industry stakeholders, investors, and media users who rely on the index for timely insight into the durable goods marketplace.

Adding Seasonal Adjustment

We now seasonally adjust our Consumer Price Index of Durable so that month-to-month changes are easier to interpret. Seasonal adjustment removes the predictable price patterns that tend to show up at the same time each year, such as holiday promotions, end-of-season markdowns, model changeovers, and other recurring retail cycles. This allows the index to better reflect underlying price movement rather than normal seasonal swings.

This matters especially for durablel goods, where pricing can be heavily influenced by promotions and product timing throughout the year. By seasonally adjusting the index, we can provide a clearer read on inflation trends and make comparisons across months more meaningful for clients and other users of the data.

We perform the adjustment itself using the U.S. Census Bureau’s X-13 seasonal adjustment method, a widely used statistical approach for monthly economic data. This procedure estimates and removes recurring seasonal patterns from the raw index while preserving the underlying trend and irregular month-to-month movements. We then calculate monthly changes from the seasonally adjusted index, which produces a cleaner measure of inflation momentum than using the unadjusted series alone.

Methodological Notes

The OpenBrand CPI of Durable Goods is constructed using a data-driven methodology that ensures accuracy, timeliness, and transparency in measuring price trends for both short and long-lasting consumer products. The methodology consists of the following key components:

Data Collection

• Real-Time Price Tracking: Prices are sourced daily from online marketplaces, retail websites, and brick-and-mortar store listings.
• Retailer & Manufacturer Data: Aggregates pricing information from major retailers, direct-to-consumer brands, and wholesale suppliers into broader consumer categories.
• Temporal Coverage: Captures price variations over time, including daily discounts and price promotions

Product Selection & Tracking

• Durable and Goods Focus: The index includes products with an expected lifespan of three years or more, such as home appliances, consumer electronics, and tools.
• Brand & Model Tracking: Individual brands and models are monitored to reflect pricing shifts within competitive product segments, including both permanent changes in listing price as well as temporary promotional pricing.

Price Calculation, Adjustments, and Weighting

• Price Calculation: Tracks month-over-month and year-over-year price movements to measure price stability in the marketplace and take into account both longer-term changes in pricing (such as changes in manufacturer’s suggested retail price) as well as more short-term changes in pricing, such as promotional discounts and sales prices. 
• SKU-Removal Instead of Hedonic Adjustments: When a product (or SKU) becomes unavailable in the BLS goods basket, the BLS implements a SKU-replacement procedure whereby the next most similar product is used in its place, and a quality (hedonic) adjustment procedure is performed to get closer to an apples-to-apples price comparison. Since OpenBrand has data on nearly 100% of the SKUs pricing history in a given product category, we can simply remove that SKU from the basket and rely on price changes of the remaining SKUs in that basket. This eliminates the need for hedonic adjustment in the OpenBrand CPI basket.
• Weighting and Aggregation Method: A weighted geometric mean formula is used to minimize volatility and improve stability in price trend analysis at both the product grouping and category level. Instead of using sales-volume weights when aggregating the index, we take an alternative approach by using persistence-based weights for aggregation. Instead of more frequently purchased items getting more weight in the BLS’ CPI calculation, OpenBrand takes a more novel approach by weighting items with a more established price history in the market more heavily in our CPI calculation than items with a less established history.

Reporting & Updates

• High-Frequency Updates: Published freely on a monthly basis, with a subscription option for daily summaries across categories, sub-categories, and individual products.
• Comparative Benchmarks: We aggregate pricing as analogously as possible to traditional BLS CPI measures for benchmarking purposes.
• Transparency & Accessibility: Provides both open and paid data access for journalists, researchers, businesses, and policymakers.

By leveraging real-time data and advanced statistical techniques, the OpenBrand CPI offers an accurate and dynamic measure of pricing trends, helping businesses and consumers make informed decisions in an evolving economic landscape.