Consumer Price Index: Durable Goods | September 2026

In September, price growth for consumer durable goods decelerated with a month-over-month (MoM) increase of +0.54%. This is down from a revised monthly +0.67% increase in August. Across our four product groups, three showed month-over-month deceleration, with the recreation group showing the only price growth uptick. However, one month does not make a trend. If we look at the overall trend this year, a vastly different story emerges.

On a September YTD basis, prices for durable goods have climbed faster in 2026 than any recent year. Prices rose 4.4% for OpenBrand CPI-Durable Goods from January to September 2026, the highest September year-to-date growth since at least 2020. That’s well above the 3.0% increase over the same stretch in 2025 and exceeds the previous high of 3.5% in 2022. Trade policy is a major factor in the pricing story: Section 301 tariffs rose from a temporary 10% to 12.5% on July 24, increasing costs that manufacturers and retailers are passing through to consumers. Energy has added pressure as well. With the Iran war keeping oil prices high, Brent crude peaked above $120 per barrel in April and has recently stayed near $100, raising the cost of both manufacturing and moving goods.

Looking at the four main groups, recreation saw the largest January-to-September price increase in 2026, at 9.3%. That’s more than double the rate of any other group. Home Improvement came in at 3.7% and Communications at 3.5%, both in line with the overall index. Electronics-heavy groups face an added cost: the memory chip shortage. AI demand is pulling supply toward data centers. Manufacturers have responded by raising prices on personal electronics. Appliances lagged far behind at just 0.7%, the only group under 1% so far this year.

Several recreation categories rose even faster than the group as a whole. Media players led with a 12.3% September YTD increase, and headphones followed at 10.8%. Sound bars (8.8%) and VAW speakers (7.7%) came in just below the group’s overall rate, but both were still close to twice as much price growth as the broader index. Notably, Apple raised list prices on a number of products in June and July, pointing to memory chip costs. Continued pressure from tariffs, energy and AI infrastructure demand will likely shape durable goods prices through the rest of 2026.

• Key CPI Takeaways for September 2026 & Macroeconomic Outlook
• Product Group Highlights
  • Appliances
  • Communication
  • Home Improvement
  • Recreation
• CPI 2026 Forecast: Macroeconomic Summary
• Methodology

Overall OpenBrand Consumer Price Index Movement: The OpenBrand CPI of Durable Goods recorded a +0.54% monthly change in September.  All product groups experienced price increases this month.  

Discount Trends: September saw decreases in discount activity in the durable goods sector, with both magnitude and frequency of all durable goods month-over-month falling compared to the month prior: to 18.4% from 19.4%, and to 23.3% from 23.9% respectively. 

Product Group Price Trends:  Prices of all product groups climbed month-over-month, with all groups except the Recreation Group experiencing a downturn in the rate of growth from the month prior.  The group summary is as follows:

• Appliance Group (+0.09%)  
• Communication Group (+0.19%)  
• Home Improvement Group (+0.14%)  
• Recreation Group (+1.36%)

CPI: Appliances

Prices for appliances fell compared to last month, decreasing to +0.09% from a revised +0.24% in August. Both discount frequency and discount magnitude decreased this month, from 38.3% to 35.7%, and 18.1% to 18.0% respectively. The decrease in both frequency and magnitude of discounts would lead us to expect an increase in prices, however, since prices of appliances decreased in September, it could be that shelf prices were set higher.

CPI: Communication

Prices of communication devices, including phones, tablets, computers, and printers, fell decently on a month-over-month basis to +0.19%, down from a revised +0.66% the month prior. The deceleration in prices was at least partially driven by the increase in the typical discount frequency, up from 14.1% in August to 14.8% in September.

CPI: Home Improvement

Prices for home improvement goods experienced deceleration in growth this month, decreasing to +0.14% on a month-over-month seasonally-adjusted basis in September, falling from +0.44% in the month prior. Both discount frequency and discount magnitude increased this month, from 12.9% to 13.5%, and 17.1% to 17.9% respectively. The deceleration in prices was at least partially driven by the increase in both the typical discount frequency and magnitude.

CPI: Recreation

The rate of price growth of recreational products, including TVs, headphones, and speaker systems, experienced acceleration this month, increasing to +1.36% on a month-over-month seasonally-adjusted basis in September, up from a revised +1.27% in August. Discount magnitude and discount frequency both decreased in September – from 24.3% to 24.2% and from 30.4% to 29.2% respectively. The acceleration in price growth was at least partially driven by the decrease in both the typical discount magnitude and frequency.

The durable goods outlook is becoming more challenging as energy-market disruptions, persistent inflation, and higher borrowing costs increasingly compete with otherwise stable fundamentals. Consumer spending and labor-market conditions remain supportive, while business investment continues to outperform the broader economy.

Energy risk has moved to the center of the macroeconomic outlook. Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain impaired amid continued regional tension, with visible shipping traffic reduced despite some shipments continuing through less visible routes. Crude oil flows through the strait fell sharply from 15.9 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025 to 10.9 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2026 and just 3.7 million barrels per day in 2026’s second quarter.

Assuming constraints to exporting oil from the Middle East will persist through the end of the year, crude oil production in the region is expected to be kept below pre-conflict averages until the second quarter of 2027. Alternative export routes, higher output outside the region, infrastructure improvements, more effective vessel escorts, or an eventual political settlement could ease the disruption. However, risks remain tilted toward higher energy prices and tighter inventories if normal Gulf supply routes do not return until well into 2027.

Rising energy costs are reshaping both consumer spending patterns and operating decisions across durable goods. Higher gasoline, utility, and other household energy bills leave less room in monthly budgets for discretionary purchases, encouraging shoppers to delay upgrades, compare prices more closely, trade down to lower-priced models, or wait for promotions and financing incentives before buying household goods. Consumer spending was the dominant contributor to second-quarter economic growth, but the subsequent stall in real personal spending points to a more cautious consumer backdrop. On the supply side, more expensive fuel feeds into transportation, last-mile delivery, warehousing, and energy-intensive manufacturing costs. This could lead to tightened inventory positions, reassessing delivery charges, narrowing promotions, or selectively passing costs through to shelf prices.

The labor market provides a partial counterbalance. U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 29,000 in September, while the unemployment rate edged up to 4.2%. Labor-force participation also rose to 61.8% in September, from 61.6% in August, suggesting that the increase in unemployment partly reflected more people entering the workforce rather than a broad deterioration in employment. Together, these results point to a labor market that remains relatively stable and should continue to support household spending. However, a stable labor market does not eliminate the affordability challenge for big-ticket products; it simply reduces the likelihood of a broad, employment-driven pullback in consumer spending. Durable goods demand is therefore likely to remain bifurcated, with necessity-driven replacement purchases holding up better than highly discretionary upgrades.

Monetary conditions are now a larger obstacle to rate-sensitive categories. The Federal Reserve raised its target range by 25 basis points in September to 3.75%-4.00%, citing elevated inflation while noting that economic activity and capital investment remain solid. Mortgage rates have also risen materially to 6.86%. This environment constrains housing turnover, affordability, and renovation activity – key demand drivers for appliances, furniture and home-related durables. Retailers should expect financing terms to carry more weight in customer decisions, but should also target subsidized financing carefully to avoid replacing unit demand with excessive promotional and margin costs.

Business investment remains the clearest area of strength. Capital spending has been expanding materially faster than GDP over the past year, supported by investment in artificial intelligence, computing equipment, data centers, industrial machinery, and related infrastructure. This creates a two-track demand environment for durable goods: business investment can support commercial and industrial categories, while household purchases are more likely to hinge on affordability, financing availability, promotional timing, and the necessity of replacement.

For questions about the report, please contact Ralph McLaughlin at ralph@openbrand.com 

For press inquiries, please contact press@openbrand.com 

The OpenBrand CPI of Durable Goods is constructed using a data-driven methodology that ensures accuracy, timeliness, and transparency in measuring price trends for both short and long-lasting consumer products. The methodology consists of the following key components:

Data Collection

• Real-Time Price Tracking: Prices are sourced daily from online marketplaces, retail websites, and brick-and-mortar store listings.
• Retailer & Manufacturer Data: Aggregates pricing information from major retailers, direct-to-consumer brands, and wholesale suppliers into broader consumer categories.
• Temporal Coverage: Captures price variations over time, including daily discounts and price promotions

Product Selection & Tracking

• Durable and Goods Focus: The index includes products with an expected lifespan of three years or more, such as home appliances, consumer electronics, and tools.
• Brand & Model Tracking: Individual brands and models are monitored to reflect pricing shifts within competitive product segments, including both permanent changes in listing price as well as temporary promotional pricing.

Price Calculation, Adjustments, and Weighting

• Price Calculation: Tracks month-over-month and year-over-year price movements to measure price stability in the marketplace and take into account both longer-term changes in pricing (such as changes in manufacturer’s suggested retail price) as well as more short-term changes in pricing, such as promotional discounts and sales prices. 
• SKU-Removal Instead of Hedonic Adjustments: When a product (or SKU) becomes unavailable in the BLS goods basket, the BLS implements a SKU-replacement procedure whereby the next most similar product is used in its place, and a quality (hedonic) adjustment procedure is performed to get closer to an apples-to-apples price comparison. Since OpenBrand has data on nearly 100% of the SKUs pricing history in a given product category, we can simply remove that SKU from the basket and rely on price changes of the remaining SKUs in that basket. This eliminates the need for hedonic adjustment in the OpenBrand CPI basket.
• Weighting and Aggregation Method: A weighted geometric mean formula is used to minimize volatility and improve stability in price trend analysis at both the product grouping and category level. Instead of using sales-volume weights when aggregating the index, we take an alternative approach by using persistence-based weights for aggregation. Instead of more frequently purchased items getting more weight in the BLS’ CPI calculation, OpenBrand takes a more novel approach by weighting items with a more established price history in the market more heavily in our CPI calculation than items with a less established history.

Reporting & Updates

• High-Frequency Updates: Published freely on a monthly basis, with a subscription option for daily summaries across categories, sub-categories, and individual products.
• Comparative Benchmarks: We aggregate pricing as analogously as possible to traditional BLS CPI measures for benchmarking purposes.
• Transparency & Accessibility: Provides both open and paid data access for journalists, researchers, businesses, and policymakers.

By leveraging real-time data and advanced statistical techniques, the OpenBrand CPI offers an accurate and dynamic measure of pricing trends, helping businesses and consumers make informed decisions in an evolving economic landscape.